The San Francisco Giants know they will be facing either the Washington Nationals or the Cincinnati Reds in the upcoming 2012 National League Division Series. As though speaking in one voice, virtually every Bay Area sports commentator, broadcaster, sports talk radio host and peanut vendor has pronounced that the Giants would be much better off if they faced the Cincinnati Reds rather than the Nationals.

But here's the thing: they're all wrong, dead wrong.

Wrong in the way that the NFL ref-lites were wrong in the Green Bay-Seattle game. Wrong like cauliflower pizza or the Pittsburgh Pirates having a winning season. I mean really dog-def wrong. And here's why.

Baseball experts and insiders agree that nothing is more important in a short playoff series than a solid, high performance bullpen. It's nice to have home runs and you'd like to see your starting pitchers go seven, but a team's bullpen will likely be the real difference between making or breaking your post season dreams.

And no team in Major League Baseball has a better bullpen than the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds' pen is #1 in MLB saves with 54, #1 in ERA at 2.61, and they lead the Majors with 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings.

A couple of other relevant numbers: in the National League Cincy is #1 in opponents batting average (.215), #1 in WHIP (1.20), and #4 in strikeouts (462).

The Red's closer is one of the most dominating young players in the game. Twenty-four year old Aroldis Chapman has put up some some stunning numbers to date: 36 saves, 1.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 119 strikeouts in 69.2 innings pitched. He routinely throws at and above 100 MPH and backs up his four seam fastball with a darting slider. As of August, Aroldis Chapman's career strikeouts to innings pitched is 14.66.

Backing up Chapman are two of the best set-up men in any bullpen: Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton. Marshall has a 2.62 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 73 SO in 58.1 IP. He has 9 saves and 21 holds. Since coming over from Kansas City in July Broxton has a combined 2.25 ERA with 43 SO in 55.2 IP. He has 9 holds and 27 saves (23 with KC).

Another huge advantage to playing the Nationals over the Reds is the ballpark factor.  ESPN's Park Factors rates Cincy's Great American Ball Park as the third highest home run ballyard in the Majors. The Reds have built their offense around the home run, while the Giants have the lowest home run total in the Majors at 95 (and they're the only MLB team with under 100 HRs) .

That means if the Reds just split the first two games of the Division Series at AT&T Park they will have a huge advantage with the next three games being played on their home field, also known as Home Run Fantasy Park.

The Giants' strengths are starting and bullpen pitching and that's where they can go head to head with the Nationals-- beat the Nats on that and you have the series. Getting into a home run derby with the Reds in Ohio will likely not have a happy ending.

The last important reason for wanting to play the Nationals over the Reds is the experience factor.

The Reds made the playoffs in 2010 led by Manager Dusty Baker and top hitting first baseman Joey Votto. Years before, Baker took the Giants to three post seasons including a World Series in 2002, and a number of Reds players have playoff experience. That kind of resume counts for a lot when you're in the pressure cooker known as post season baseball.

The Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos franchise made the NL playoffs a total of one time in 44 years-- in 1981 when they lost the NLCS. So Washington enters the NLDS as a young team with virtually no playoff experience. 

And two weeks ago the Nat's brilliant brain trust decided to shut down Stephen Strasberg, maybe the best young pitcher in the Majors-- just in case he gets hurt. Thanks to this amazingly bad ownership decision, Strasberg's 15-6 record, 1.15 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts in 159.1 innings pitched will not be a factor if the Giant's face the Nationals.  

San Francisco's World Series Championship season was only two years ago. Manager Bruce Bochy, his coaching staff, and eleven players on the current active roster were part of that winning team. This is a young and very hungry squad with a ton of recent playoff experience.

All due respect to the local sports pundits, talk show mavens and stadium insiders, San Francisco should cross their fingers and hope the Cincinnati Reds end up with the best record in the National League when the 2012 season ends. Then the Giants can start the playoffs against the Washington Nationals.

A baseball season always looks so clear after the fact. How clear? In the words of Jack Nicholson's Col. Nathan Jessup, "crystal". And that rule can apply even before the season is actually over. Like, for example, the San Francisco Giants' 2012 regular season (you didn't really think I was going to do 650 words on the Houston Astros... ).

Looking Back
The Giants will play game #154 tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks, with eight left to play to finish the regular season-- two more with the Snakes, three against the Padres, then finishing up with three against the flailing Los Angeles Dodgers and their additional $275 million in new contracts.

Having clinched the 2012 National League West title last Saturday this is all about looking ahead, and we will certainly do that. But first a brief look back.

The date this team turned it around and began playing to its potential was July 13, 2012, the first game following the All Star break. In the 67 games from July 13 through September 23rd, the Giants went 43-24 (.642), and they will finish the season having spent a total of 79 games in 1st place (49%).

And the Melky Cabrera meltdown? San Francisco put up a 27-11 record after Cabrera's August 15th suspension for a positive PED test, a .711 winning percentage. Bottom line here is the Giants started to find themselves right after the All Star break, and one month later kicked it into high gear after their best hitter was suspended for the rest of the season.

The three reasons for the Giants' turnaround + focus are really simple: 1) an outstanding starting rotation and bullpen; 2) the trades for Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence; and, 3) outstanding performances from Buster Posey and Angel Pagan.

And, sure, this is a truly a team effort and every player on the roster contributed, most notably Barry Zito. But without #1-3 above, 2012 would have ended in a desperate (and probably losing) fight for an NL Wild Card slot.

Looking Forward
How team management deals with clinching a playoff spot eleven days before the regular season ends is fascinating. Washington Nationals Manager Davey Johnson has already declared that he will give his regular starters a rest. Giants' Manager Bruce Bochy appears to have suggested that he will keep everyone going in their usual roles right up to the playoffs.

This is a classic situation where both approaches are supported by logic, reason, and experience. Why rest Ryan Vogelsong just when he seems to have rediscovered his mojo after seven poor starts in a row? Why hold Tim Lincecum back when he has put together a string of good starts and now looks like he has a chance to be the biggest contributing number three starter of any playoff team?

On the offensive side, Pablo Sandoval has had an impressive rebound over the last two weeks and may be getting his approach to the plate together at just the right time, so why sit him on the bench? 

On the other hand, would Vogelsong get stronger if he skipped a start, does Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner need a break, could the bullpen regulars stand down every third game no matter what the score? It's been a long comeback year for Buster Posey who's been working hard no matter how many games he's started at first base. And how long do you play 36 year-old Marco Scutaro five or six times a week without a break?      

Other regulars in the line-up have legitimate personal goals that also work for the team: Buster Posey has 98 RBI and Hunter Pence has 96 RBI-- 100 RBI is within reach for both players. Posey is also only 5 points (.332) behind National League leading hitter Andrew McCutchen (.337) of the Pirates to win the NL batting title. Angel Pagan has 92 runs scored and 15 triples, which leads the Majors. Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval would probably love to move into the 60+ RBI category before the end of the season.

And no doubt shortstop Brandon Crawford wouldn't mind in the least if his batting average nudged up to .250 by the final game of the season.

Team wins are not the biggest consideration at the moment, but runs scored may well be. Demonstrating that they have finally improved their chronically poor offensive numbers over recent years, the San Francisco Giants are on line to score 723 runs in 2012, the most in six years:

SF Giants runs scored
2006	746
2007	683
2008	640
2009	657
2010	696
2011	570

 
  







Two different philosophies in preparing for the post season from two winning managers. It's more likely that Bochy and Davey Johnson will ultimately fall somewhere in the middle of their stated approaches as they prepare their teams to take the field for the 2012 National League Playoffs.

There are a number of players who will be chasing prestigious Major League Baseball records over the next ten days, and one of those players might achieve something that hasn't been done in almost a half century.

First, let's talk pitchers. On Saturday September 22nd Washington Nationals starter Geo Gonzalez (19-8) will go for his 20th win-- an achievement reached by only 11 pitchers over the previous five years.

Three other pitchers also have an outside shot at 20 wins: the Mets' R.A. Dickey (18-6), the Angels' Jered Weaver (18-4), and Tampa Bay's David Price (18-5). With 196 strikeouts Gonzalez also looks like a lock to surpass 200 strikeouts.

The potentially historic moment involves Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who could become the first player in 45 years to win the elusive Triple Crown-- leading either League in battting average, RBI, and home runs. Boston left fielder Carl Yastrzemski was the last player to win a Triple Crown, in 1967. Only 15 players in the history of the game have won the Triple Crown, making it one of the singular achievements is all of professional sports.

Cabrera is currently first in the American League in RBI with 130 (Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers has 123); first in AL batting average with .333 (Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angel is hitting .324); and second in AL home runs with 41 (Josh Hamilton has 42 homers). One of the best stories in baseball will be the real home run derby down the stretch between Cabrera and Hamilton.

But not all records and statistical achievements are noteworthy or make MLB history. In fact, some are barely even noticeable.

San Francisco Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford certainly shares his team's passion to make the playoffs, get into the 2012 World Series and come away with a World Champsionship ring. But the rookie infielder is also on another mission: Crawford wants to finish the 2012 season with at least a .250 batting average.

In 133 games and 411 ABs this season Crawford is hitting .246 with a .658 OPS, 43 RBI, and 33 extra base hits. And that's good production from a world class-fielding shortstop.

But Brandon Crawford understands that statistics can have great symbolism for players as well as fans, and the world on the far side of a .249 batting average is dramatically different. It's a happy, carefree world where slick fielding shortstops are officially deemed to have contributed enough at the plate to fully justify their presence in the everyday line-up.

Crawford has come a long way since he dug himself a deep offensive hole to start the 2012 season: batting .203 in April and .231 in May. June showed some improvement with a .260 average but then Crawford stumbled and fell back to .235 in July.

Then Brandon Crawford got hot and stayed hot: a .281 August was followed by a .293 September and a .871 OPS for the month.

At the same time Crawford was working to upgrade his offense he was also correcting a shaky defensive start that saw him make 12 errors in his first 60 games. In his last 70 games he's made 3 errors. Because of Crawford's extraordinary range and infield acrobatics many baseball insiders put him at the top of their best-shortstops-in-the-game lists.

And that's all good, except when it comes to reaching the .250 mark. For Crawford the goal is very reachable and tantalizingly close. And he has maybe nine starts left to get it done.

Now is the time for MLB teams with a shot to make the post season to make critical decisions about their starting rotations and batting line-ups. Setting up for the playoffs involves not only putting your best players in a position where they can excel, it's also about first round match-ups with likely opponents.  

Few playoff bound teams aren't grappling with at least several serious key player performance or injury issues. Maybe the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals come the closest to having their ducks lined up, although the Nationals' decision to shut down ace starter Stephen Strasberg is by far the most controversial story of the 2012 post season.

As the San Francisco Giants continue to lengthen their lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in pursuit of the NL West title, it is the Reds or the Nationals they will probably face to start the playoffs. And San Francisco approaches the 2012 post season with maybe the most serious issues of any potential playoff team. Here are three problems that must be tackled to give the Giants their best chance to go deep into the upcoming postseason:

1. The Starting Rotation
This starts and ends with Tim Lincecum.
Lincecum has turned his season around, but it hasn't been a dramatic improvement. On July 8th Lincecum was 3-10 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP; as of his September 12th win against Colorado he is 9-14 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Lincecum has shed an impressive 1.34 in ERA over that span but his 6-4 record and 3.65 ERA over that period only hits a 7.0 on the cautious optimism scale. San Francisco needs to go into the post season with a primary rotation of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong-- in that order. Lincecum was brilliant in the 2010 post season and World Series. But that was then.

And here's the shocker: this time around the Giants better take Barry Zito along for the post season ride because when the need comes up (as it will during the playoffs) for a fourth starter, Lincecum just might be watching Zito walk out to the mound.

2. The Left Field Problem
When the Giants brought veteran outfielder Xavier Nady up from Triple A Fresno to play left field in the September 1st game against the Cubs, it looked like the gaping hole in the batting line-up left by Melky Cabrera had been patched. Nady went 4 for 12 in 5 games with 3 RBI before he went down with a left hamstring strain.

Deposed left fielder Gregor Blanco has filled in admirably for Nady, going 7 for 21 since September 4th, but that effort only raised Blanco's average from .234 to .242. Although Blanco has proven he is not an everyday outfielder, he does bring much needed speed and defense from the bench as the fourth outfielder.

Xavier Nady and his extra-base hit bat should be back in the line-up this weekend for the three game series against Arizona and the hope is he's fully healed and able to play every day. With a 1 through 7 line-up of Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Brandon Belt the Giants offense is in great shape.

But add Xavier Nady batting in either the 6th or 7th slot, and that line-up has run producing potential from top to bottom.

3. Chilling Out the Panda
Pablo Sandoval has struggled through two stints on the disabled list this season that cost him and the team 53 missed games. Coming back from those injuries has at times been a struggle for Sandoval who is a gamer of the first order. His August stats were terrible-- a .211 BA, 2 extra base hits and no home runs. He has gone from hitting +.300 to .276, all likely the result of trying too hard to make up lost ground.

Manager Bruce Bochy wisely sat Sandoval on the bench one game this week just before an off-day. He obviously needed that time off and he may need more. What San Francisco needs is a healthy and rested Pablo Sandoval fully contributing from the third hole in this line-up throughout the playoffs. And, yes, the weight issue and conditioning is still a problem.

While it's somewhat preemptive to assume anything until this team actually clinches a playoff spot, think about this: if the Giants went 9-10 in their last nineteen games their record would be 90-72. For the Dodgers (74-70) just to tie the Giants they would have to go 16-2 the rest of the way.

It's time for the Giants to realign their starting pitching and reboot their offensive attack to have the best chance for post season success.

In September 2010 the San Francisco Giants were in a heart-stopping race to try and catch the San Diego Padres and somehow wrestle away a first place finish in the National League West. The pitching-rich Padres spent 128 of the first 145 games of that year firmly in 1st place and it looked like the Giants were running uphill.

But in the final 17 games of the season San Diego would be in 1st place for for only 3 days, and on the final day of the season the Pads would lose the NL West title to the surging Giants.

Giants' starter Barry Zito was 9-14 in 2010 with a 4.15 ERA and 150 SO in 199.1 innings pitched. Probably not what either the baseball establishment or the sabermetric community would call a standout year. Except this: without Zito's 9 wins Giant players, coaches, and owners would have watched the 2010 post season on their 60 inch HDTVs in their media rooms instead of winning the World Series against the Texas Rangers.

This season Zito has once again been an invaluable component of a winning team, and once again it will be his pitching that makes the difference if the Giants are able to hold on and take the NL West title.

Universally thought of as the permanent #5 starter on this Giants starting staff, Barry Zito has actually been in the #4 slot most of this season right behind Matt Cain in the rotation. His 11-8 record, 4.33 ERA and 95 strike-outs only begin to suggest his contributions in what has been the most difficult and upside down regular season for the San Francisco franchise in over a decade.

Giants' ace Tim Lincecum has gone through a storm of uncertainly and failure in 2012, occasionally punctuated with a promising outing that he invariably cannot sustain. To have your top starter, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, have an 8-14 record with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.473 WHIP in mid-September during a race for the playoffs would spell disaster for almost any other team. But not the Giants.

And here is where Zito has made two major contributions to San Francisco's 2012 season: first, he's pitching better than he has since his final year with the Oakland A's in 2006 (16-10, 1.403 WHIP); second, Zito has effectively offset Lincecum's difficult year. Which allows Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong to take the lead in creating wins and driving this team forward.

The impact on the team's resurgence after the Melky Cabrera meltdown has been significant: the Giants have won all seven of Zito's last seven starts, and nine of his last twelve starts.

The best example of this, and perhaps Barry Zito's greatest game as a San Francisco Giant was the rubber game of a three game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park this past weekend. In first place and up 4.5 games on second place LA, the Giants were in a position to put the Dodgers into a mathematically slippery rat-hole if they could take at least two of three games.

Game one was another Tim Lincecum revival meeting-- 6.1 innings pitched, 4 hits, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts (and 7 walks). The Giants bullpen did their thing and threw 2.2 innings of 2-hit no-run baseball to seal a 5-2 victory. Game two was a tight battle with Matt Cain giving up 2 runs in 7.1 IP-- but the Giants lost 3-2.           

Barry Zito's assignment was to win game 3 and put the Dodgers down in the middle of a raging September battle to make the playoffs. He responded with 6.1 innings pitched, 4 hits, 0 runs, 4 SO and 3 BB. Zito got the win and the Giants took a 5.5 game lead in the NL West race with 22 games to go.

It was a masterful effort from a pitcher who has to actually pitch with every throw-- he lives on the edge of different speeds at different heights; he needs to get the ball inside and he needs to get the ball low; and Zito has an arching curve ball that floats in and breaks at the same time. That curveball could make Ted Williams or Shoeless Joe Jackson turn pirouettes in the batter's box.

The next two and a half weeks of Major League Baseball should be amazing. The two wild cards in each League, the intense battle in the American League East, the astounding Oakland A's, the White Sox and the Tigers tearing it up in the AL Central, and Atlanta and St. Louis clawing for spot in the NL post season. Fierce competition and extraordinary personal performances will likely abound.

In the middle of it all, a lefty starter for the San Francisco Giants will work in the shadows of his fellow starters and his own former greatness. But the man can still get it done whether anyone is watching or not. 

This is not the team the Giants expected to make the September charge to take the 2012 National League West title. Not even close.

But it is a team succeeding in strange and unconventional ways to the extent they are now third in National League wins with 76 (behind Cincinnati with 82 and Washington with 81), and fourth overall in baseball (tied with the New York Yankees).

To understand the Giants and where they've come since being swept in their season-opening three game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks in April, you have to start with a series of lists.

A List of Lists Describing the Opposite of Success
First, there's the "Critical Player Injuries" list and it consists of one very important name: third baseman Pablo Sandoval (two stints on the DL and 53 games missed). The run-challenged Giants could not afford to lose Sandoval's bat for even a week; they lost it for eight weeks.

Then there's the "Out for the Season" list featuring closer Brian Wilson (pitched 2 innings, Tommy John surgery in April); starting second baseman Freddy Sanchez (no innings played, open a medical dictionary to any page); and minor league starter Eric Surkamp (would likely have been the first pitcher called up from the minors).

There are also a couple of special lists.

"Best Hitter in the History of Baseball to be Suspended in Mid-Season for Testing Positive" is a one man list consisting of Melky Cabrera, who took his .346 BA, 84 runs scored, and .906 OPS poured gasoline over them and set them on fire. Cabrera joined long reliever Guillermo Mota who was serving his own 100 game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance.

Another one-person list is the "Only Pitcher in the History of Baseball to Win 2 Consecutive Cy Young Awards Then Tank this Much" list. After winning the Cy Young in 2008 and 2009, Tim Lincecum has gone 37-38 with a 3.65 ERA. This season Lincecum is 8-14 with a 1.462 WHIP.

One final list.

Of 30 MLB teams, the San Francisco Giant hitters rank last in home runs with a mere 81 four-baggers. They have hit a microscopic 20 home runs at AT&T Park so far this season. In 2011 Giants hitters pounded out 42 homers at AT&T, and whacked a whopping 74 in 2010.

All of that should have added up to a frustrating season rife with lost opportunities, embarrassing turns of events, and a group of under-performing highly paid players. But things have not added up that way at all.

Here's How Things Have Added Up
Manager Bruce Bochy has expertly redesigned and retooled this team along the way, adjusting his batting line-up and bullpen to deal with an ongoing series of unfortunate events. And while it takes the players to perform and put up numbers, Bochy has managed the hell out of this team to get them them to the point of having more wins than only three other teams in all of baseball.

NL Manager of the Year? Forget about Dusty Baker of the Reds or Davey Johnson of the Washington Nationals. Bochy has done more with less that any manager in the game this season.

Hitting:
Maybe they don't hit home runs, but this team is a doubles and triples hitting machine. The Giants are 8th in the National League with 239 doubles and 2nd in the Majors with 45 triples. They are third in the National League with 1,233 hits (Colorado has 1,244 and St. Louis has 1,288).

San Francisco is tied for 3rd in NL on base percentage with .324, and 5th in NL stolen bases with 97. And Giant hitters rank second to last in the National League in strikeouts with 921 (the Phillies have 896).

Making it happen at the plate, behind the plate and in the clubhouse is the leader of this team, Buster Posey (85 RBI, .405 OBP, .935 OPS). No other player in the National League has been more valuable to his team in 2012 than Posey.

Pitching:
Despite Lincecum's struggles this season the Giant's pitching staff is tied for 1st in the NL with 12 shutouts, is 7th in the Majors with a 3.69 team ERA, and is 4th in the National League with a 1.26 WHIP. Number five starter Barry Zito has 10 victories.

The San Francisco bullpen is 1st in the Majors with 47 saves, tied with Atlanta for the second lowest number of blown saves (12), and is 6th in the Majors with a .245 opponents batting average.

Batting Order:
Bruce Bochy faced a series of challenges almost from the start of the season-- where to find an effective lead-off hitter, an offense-contributing second baseman, a right fielder who could produce runs, a left fielder who could replace Melky Cabrera, and a solid #2 guy in the line-up.

The central non-performing starter here is Gregor Blanco (.236 BA, .667 OPS) who began the season on the bench. In early May 2012 Blanco took over in right field from the struggling Nate Schierholtz and was moved into the lead-off spot in the order to replace the struggling Angel Pagan (.250).

After starting off hot and showing excellent speed on the bases, Blanco's OBP tailed off and Bochy experimented with Marco Scutaro and several other players at lead-off. On August 3rd Bochy put a rejuvenated Pagan (.288 AVG, .340 OBP) back into the lead-off spot in the batting order and the Giants have gone 21-9 since.

The trade with Colorado to get Marco Scutaro brought a live bat to the #2 spot in the line-up and solved the second base issue. The trade for Hunter Pence has been a slow starter but Pence is quickly finding his hitting legs again and has made several spectacular plays in right field.

The recent pick-up of 11 year veteran Xavier Nady has brought run production back to the left field spot and injected some desperately needed power into the back end of the order. With first baseman Brandon Belt getting better by the week, Bochy must feel he has all the pieces in place to take the National League West title for the second time in three years.

And what about Melky Cabrera?
San Francisco Giants players rebooted their team chemistry and have gone 13-5 since Cabrera left the team. After Melky turned sour, the cream is once again rising to the top.

BASEBALL HEADLINES FROM NEWSPAPERS ACROSS THE NATION




NEW YORK YANKEES TRADE ROGER CLEMENS TO LA DODGERS FOR $14M
“Roger Hasn’t Actually Been on the Team Since 2007,” Stated Yankee GM Brian Cashman, “But the New Dodger Ownership Insisted”

NOSTRADAMUS PREDICTED PITTSBURGH PIRATES WOULD FINISH ABOVE .500 IN 2012
Also Predicted Bigger Raisins Would Eventually Be Used In Popular Bran Cereal and that President Joe Biden Would Entangle US in Costly War With Canada

VIN SCULLY, 84, RETURNING TO DODGER BROADCAST BOOTH IN 2013
Will Only Do The 3rd Inning of Home Games Every Other Tuesday To Physically Prepare for Upcoming Marriage to Lindsay Lohan

BUD SELIG PLANNING TO MAKE 2013 ALL STAR GAME EVEN MORE EXCITING
Baseball Commissioner Says “Lord of the Rings” Trilogy To Be Screened On Scoreboard During Lengthy 7th Inning Stretch;  First Born Children of Losing Players to Be Moved to, Then Driven Out Of, Egypt;  “Find the Tainted Roast Turkey Sandwich” Stadium Promotion Will Keep Fans Focused
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Somewhere inside the ownership suite at Boston's famed Fenway Park it's very possible a remarkable scene took place yesterday. Red Sox Principal Owner John Henry, Chairman Tom Werner, President Larry Lucchino, and GM Ben Cherington likely raised glasses of Cristal champagne in grateful celebration of instantly erasing three of the worst contracts in the history of their franchise.
  
How on earth did the Red Sox front office pull that off? And what idiotic MLB franchise would consider taking on $274.6 million in contracts on underachieving players, several of whom also brought a virus of negativity into the Sox clubhouse?
 
Why, it was your 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers.

We knew the flashy new ownership of the Los Angeles Dodgers was desperate to become instantly relevant and competitive, and itching to challenge the San Francisco Giants for the 2012 NL West title. What we didn't know is that they would take on the following player contracts from a Red Sox team equally desperate to reboot their brand and their direction:
 

To the Dodgers...	2012 (est.)	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Total
1B Adrian Gonzalez	$4.4m	$21m	$21m	$21m	$21m	$21.5m	$21.5m	$131.4m
LF Carl Crawford	$4.1m	$20m	$20.25m	$20.5m	$20.75m	$21m	--	$106.6m
SP Josh Beckett	$3.3m	$15.75m	$15.75m	--	--	--	--	$34.8m
IF Nick Punto	$315,000	$1.5m	--	--	--	--	--	$1.82m

That's a total of $274.62 million. You can subtract the $12 million the Red Sox sent to LA as part of the deal. Payable at $2m a year over six years, it's probably close to the amount the Sox keep in their petty cash drawer.

But if you think that sounds like a steal for the Boston Red Sox just wait, there's more.

Boston also received the Dodgers' #2 rated minor league prospect, right-hander Allen Webster who is projected as a future #2 starter. In addition, the Sox got twenty-four year old LA minor league left fielder Jerry Sands (101 RBI, .911 OPS), 2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. (.295 AVG), and 23 year old righty Rubby De La Rosa.

The Dodgers also included under-performing first baseman James Loney as part of the deal. Loney has about $1.3 million left to pay on his $6.375m 2012 contract and is a free agent in October.

Two questions remain
First, will powerful first bagger Adrian Gonzalez help the Dodgers mount an attack on the National League West title? Absolutely. But this is already Gonzalez's fourth team and his reputation as a selfish player precedes him wherever he goes.

Second, is another bat what Los Angeles really needs most to compete and excel over the next several years? Absolutely not-- they need starting pitching, and plenty of it. This is a team with one certified ace and a dugout full of recycled starters waiting to fail.

The Dodgers haven't quite figured out just how to spend all the money in the world...  think New York Yankees in the early Steinbrenner years.

The Plan
The hope of Magic Johnson and the ownership group that just took over the Dodger franchise is that Gonzalez goes nuts in the next five weeks and single-handedly makes a difference in the race to grab a slot in the National League post season. But to get a potential bump from one $131 million star player they had to take on an additional $143 million in salary from three marginal players.

Crawford's +$20 million per year paydays stretch out through 2017, and he is a serial under achiever with a long history of physical problems (he is about to undergo season-ending elbow surgery this week). Beckett (5-11, 5.23 ERA) was apparently a nightmare in the Red Sox clubhouse and Punto is a utility infielder.

The Result
The Dodgers came into the 2012 season with a payroll at $90+ million. There were a lot of potential roster upgrades the new owners could have considered over the next year; instead they made the stunning decision to purchase a dumpster full of garbage the Red Sox had been accumulating the last several years.

Just when the Sox were wondering what the hell they were going to do with all those deadly and expensive contracts, the Los Angeles Dodgers raised their hands and said "Pick us!".

My bet is the Boston Red Sox braintrust popped open another bottle of Cristal just thinking about it.
 

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The arms race to win the 2012 war between the Giants and Dodgers just went into fifth gear: please secure your food trays to their upright positions and see if you can climb into your overhead luggage compartment. As Bette Davis once said after watching Tommy Lasorda eat his weight in clam linguine, "It's going to be a bumpy night...".

The San Francisco Giants were a half game back in second place when they went to Chavez Ravine for a three game set with the NL West leading Dodgers. LA had just won eight of their last eleven games and looked like they finally found momentum for a big six week push to take the Division title.

And while the Giants weren't exactly reeling from Melky Cabrera's "use by" date expiring two months early, there were doubts, concerns and a clear need to find an outfield bat. Pronto. The unspoken hope was that the Giants could take one or two games and get out of Dodgertown relatively intact.

Giant pitchers had a different idea (so did Giant hitters) as San Francisco swept the Dodgers 2-1, 4-1, and 8-4. In each game the starting pitchers got the win and the loss-- Madison Bumgarner over Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum over Joe Blanton, and Matt Cain over Chris Capuano. On full display was the critical pitching edge San Francisco holds over virtually every other team in baseball.

Now the race between the Giants and Dodgers to bring another bat or starting arm to their rosters gets serious with just over a week to go before the waiver trade deadline hits on August 31st at 1:00PM PST. Any player traded after that date is not eligible for the post-season roster, so that loud noise you hear is the trade clock ticking.

As reported in MLBTradeRumors.com this week, LA Times columnist Dylan Hernandez noted the Dodgers actually won the waiver claim on Phillies starter Cliff Lee (and the $95 million owed Lee through his 2016 option year buyout) only to have Philadelphia quickly yank him back. Speculation on a new Dodger target now shifts to Boston first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who just cleared waivers along with the $135+ million still owed him through 2018.

LA appears to be stumbling all over the map in their attempts to improve either their starting pitching or run production in time to fight for a spot in the 2012 post-season. Apparently the only thing that doesn't make the new Dodger ownership blink is paying untold millions of dollars to get that done.

So which team will pull the trigger on a trade that could very well make all the difference in September?

I'm betting both teams will pull a deal off, with the Dodgers almost a lock to go with a starting pitching upgrade. They may not trot out a fearsome line-up each night (LA is 12th out of 16 NL teams runs scored with 497), but Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez provide a legitimate offensive core. To eat at the adult table in October the Dodgers need another starting arm. 

San Francisco merely wants to get a good-to-very-good power bat in left field to add some jump to the everyday line-up. With the promotion of Francisco Peguero from Triple A Fresno on Thursday to replace the injured Justin Christian, the Giants have a chance to fill that need in-house with one of the most promising prospects in their minor league system.

If Peguero can find his focus in the next several weeks, this could develop into one of the biggest stories of the year for the Giants. 

Either way, GM Brian Sabean should feel he's provided the pieces needed to solve the post-season puzzle.

Everyone in baseball seems to agree that the San Francisco Giants dodged a big bullet when the agents representing suspended hitting star Melky Cabrera turned down the Giant's overtures for a mid-season contract extension last July. CBSSports.com reported the Giants were poking around the 3 year $27 million range.

With the mega-offensive season Cabrera was putting up, I didn't imagine Cabrera's handlers would give a hometown discount to the Giants. It would have been irrestible to take Cabrera into free agency, where he would likely get something more along the lines of four years at $48 million.

At this point, the chances the Giants might activate Cabrera after his 50 game suspension are about equal to Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin getting invited to a Mensa meeting. But what if...

What if the Giants had signed Melky Cabrera to an extended contract in July? They would have been essentially "forced" to activate and play him the day after his suspension ended. Which would mean the Giants not only made the 2012 playoffs, but they would be moving up to the League Championship Series with Cabrera's bat back in the line-up.

Sure, the critics would still have slammed Cabrera and the Giants, but once he had done his time there would be little question about the legitimacy of San Francisco reactivating a player they just inked to a three year contract. You can make a strong argument that the Giants would actually be a lot better off if they had signed Cabrera before the PED use news broke.

What bad luck-- they would be "stuck" with a player who was batting .346.

Of course it's all academic: first, Cabrera was headed to free agency. Second, who knows how much the testosterone he was applying to his skin helped him get to that .346 batting average. Most importantly for the Giants' brand, the front office might rather pass on having Cabrera's bat back if it also meant they would avoid three years of relentless negative PR.

What About Left Field?
The Giants are reportedly aggressively looking for help in left field before the waiver trade deadline hits at the end of August. Gregor Blanco (.234 BA/.329 OBP/.668 OPS) and Justin Christian (.133/.188/.343) will not be nearly enough to fill the empty milk bottle left on the porch by Melky Cabrera.

The August trade deadline is all about getting a player who will be eligible for the post season, but it's also one last opportunity for teams looking to dump salary to do so before the season ends. So an impact bat or two should be available at a reasonable price.

The Giants do not want to give up any of their top-tiered minor league prospects (think OF Francisco Peguero, CF Gary Brown, RP Heath Hembree, 2B Joe Panik, and 3B Chris Dominguez), but they have the ability to expand payroll to accommodate a sizable salary dump. You can start with the $1.6m the team is saving as part of Cabrera's suspension.

Possible names would include the Mets' LF Scott Hairston (.274 AVG/.522 SLG) who will be a free agent in October and is pulling down a paltry $1.1m in salary. Another October free agent is former-Giant outfielder Cody Ross (60 RBI, 18HR, .854 OPS) of the Red Sox, who has an accommodating $3m salary and an uncertain future with the Sox.

In-house solutions are available but they could be disruptive to the team's structure, which seems to have finally stabilized despite the loss of Cabrera. One such solution would be moving Brandon Belt from first base to left field, putting Pablo Sandoval at first and moving Marco Scutaro to third. Messing with Belt should be a non-starter-- he is a defensive whiz at first base and his offensive numbers are climbing just when the team needs them most.

Promoting Francisco Peguero (103 games, .274 BA, 68 RBI) from Triple A Fresno could bring some electricity to the line-up and excitement among the fans, but GM Brian Sabean and Manager Bruce Bochy rarely look beyond veteran talent in times of need. And who can blame them since the Giants are in for the fight of their lives down the September stretch. Hopefully Peguero will be a September 1st call-up so the team can see what he brings to the show.

Whatever the front office is going to do they need to get it done in the next ten days. Will one more bat make a difference? You can bet your milk money on it.
 

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