The traditional MLB batting lineup has always been imagined as a linear list consisting of players with set offensive attributes. This linear list is viewed as continually starting and stopping, from lead-off to 9th then back again. Roles have been historically assigned to each spot on the linear lineup list which are supposed to define the offense; the lead-off man has a good on base percentage and is fast, the number four hitter has the most power, the worst hitter bats ninth, and so on. But as research refines tradition, there is little about the performace aspects of Major League Baseball that has been unexamined by a generation of baseball scientists who have also redefined the boundries of research.

The baseball establishment often tries to marginalize this serious work by dismissing it as the irrevelent mathematical ramblings of stat wonks who don’t appreciate the “real” game. But during the past ten years, a number of stubbornly conventional baseball organizations have found themselves left behind and desperately trying to catch the sabermetric train after it has left the station.

Baseball social politics aside, let me emphasize that the goal of all this hitting lineup analysis is to answer a question: can a team restructure its hitting lineup to create more runs scored. To put more runners on base when your best hitters come up to the plate, to develop more offensive opportunities during a game, to maximize offensive situations that develop during a game, and basically to put crooked numbers up on the scoreboard.

The instant the first pitch of a baseball game is tossed, the batting lineup, rather than being the repeating linear list we are familiar with, actually becomes a potentially unending circular directory (though almost always terminated in the 9th inning). As the cliché goes, unlike any other major sport, baseball doesn’t have a clock, which means it ends only when one team offensively outscores the other and holds the lead. Given the circular directory, finding the correct location and orientation for the most accomplished hitters is logically best served by having them centered in the circular directory, and separated from out producing batters.  

A Mobius strip has the mathematical property of being non-orientable, meaning there is no starting point or stopping point, only one side, and only one boundary. The analogy to a baseball batting order is that, once the game has begun, there is no lead-off batter and no number 9 batter; there is only a continually looping directory of players.

In a condensed summary of the Mobius strip theory, the three best hitters on a team bat 1-3 in the order, with the “best” hitter batting second; the 8th and 9th batters in the line-up would be the next two best hitters on the team. The players who contribute the least to the offense, typically the pitcher and players known more for their extraordinary defensive skills, are separated from the 1-3 hitters equally from either end of the lineup. 

Here’s how the 2010 San Francisco Giants lineup looks using conventionally accepted linear batting order criteria (please ignore currently injured players, and players whose talent does not perfectly match the specific slot criteria):
 
1. Aaron Rowand - CF  High OBP, fast runner, moves around bases well.  
2. Freddie Sanchez - 2B  Contact hitter, moves lead-off batter into scoring position, can bunt well.
3. Pablo Sandoval - 3B  Best all around hitter on the team, high BA, high OBP, on base for cleanup hitter. 
4. Aubrey Huff - 1B  Cleanup hitter; best pure power hitter, RBI leader.  
5. Mark DeRosa - LF  Second best power hitter, "protects"  #4 batter, second RBI leader.
6. Bengie Molina - C  Extra base hit power, RBI producer.  
7. John Bowker - RF  More likely to create outs, lineup spot for defensive standouts.  
8. Edgar Renteria - SS  Contact hitter, possibly on base for top of the order, second spot in lineup for defensive players. 
9. pitcher - P  National League pitcher slot; often American League "second lead-off" man.

And here’s how the same 2010 Giants lineup would look in a Mobius batting order configuration:
 
1. Mark DeRosa - LF  Second or third best pure hitter on the team. 
2. Pablo Sandoval - 3B  Best hitter on the team (the #3 batter in a linear lineup).
3. Aubrey Huff - 1B  Second or third best hitter on the team.
4. Bengie Molina - C  First of two players with extra base hit potential, lower OBP and BA.       
5. Aaron Rowand - CF  Extra base hit potential, lower OBP and BA.
6. John Bowker - RF  Second most likey to create outs in the continuing directory of batters.
7. pitcher - P  Most likely to create outs in the continuing directory of batters.
8. Edgar Renteria - SS  Good OBP, fourth or fifth best hitter on the team. 
9. Freddie Sanchez - 2B  Good OBP, fourth or fifth best hitter on the team.

Not only do the statistically best hitters, placed the 1-3  in the order, receive the most at-bats, the best hitter on the team (batting #2) has the three lineup positions in front of him filled by two of the next three best hitters on the team.

Each ballgame “artificially” starts with the #1 hitter at the plate, in this case Mark DeRosa. But, after the pitcher’s #7 spot is passed the first time around in the order, the lineup becomes the continuing directory of a Mobius strip, with the three best hitters up more often, and two quality hitters batting in front of those three players for the rest of the game.

The Mobuis theory puts the hitters most likely to create outs as far away from the top three hitters in the lineup as possible throughout the entire game.

Several sidebar issues. First, “moneyball” considerations of player on-base percentages, making contact with the ball, and scoring runs without pounding out 45 home runs, etc. are as workable as any other definition of what a preferred hitter might be. Each general manager and manager determines the criteria of what constitutes a “good hitter”; so primary placement in a Mobuis lineup can include such considerations as which players are the best contact hitters, which hitters take a lot of pitches, and which players are most adept at moving around the bases. The manager still has the primary responsibility to put the right players in whatever lineup configuration is used.
 
Second, to the extent that pinch hitters are often used in National League games in the late innings to replace the pitcher, and pinch hitters are likely to be accomplished batters, their at-bats would only further support the overall effect of a Mobius configuration.

Obviously, player talent level is relative for each team; the object here is to look at the concept, not at individual player names. Having Alex Rodriguez playing third base rather than Pedro Feliz will obviously make a difference, but each team has to work with the personnel it has (and I mean no disrespect to Houston third baseman Pedro Feliz, who has, by the way, a World Series ring).

Having proposed the Mobius lineup theory, it is important to note that serious professional sabermetricians (who know more on Tuesday than I do all year) have conducted countless scenarios which consist of placing different categories of hitters in different slots in the batting order to see how run production might be affected. So far, although no agreed upon “perfect” lineup has emerged, a great deal of interesting and valuable information has been developed. Some amount of this research runs contrary to the Mobius theory; for example, some scenarios show batting the pitcher 8th in the order can increase runs scored, while batting the pitcher 7th does not.

As the corners of baseball’s sabermetric universe continue to be explored, the every day batting lineup will always be a focal point of discussion and theory. Which is the first step in challenging unexamined and conventionally less productive ways of doing business.

Currently one National League baseball team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, is batting their pitchers eighth in the batting order. In past years, St. Louis Cardinal Manager Tony La Russa batted his pitchers in the eight spot, but so far in 2010 La Russa has reverted to the more traditional pitcher-batting-9th. In the conservative world of baseball ownership and management an experiment like this is the equivalent of going from analogue to digital, or cutting rare steak from your diet and adding more fiber. And if there’s one thing baseball’s establishment needs, it’s a lot more fiber.

This fascinating subject is on the table only because La Russa, a respected and innovative manager, first batted his pitcher in the eight slot in 1998, his third year as manager of the St. Louis Cardinals. In the tradtion of only Nixon can go to China, only La Russa could dare shake up tradition and tinker with baseball’s conventional batting order. It was difficult for the traditionalistas to come down hard on La Russa because his resume is impeccable: through the 2009 season he is second in baseball history, behind Connie Mack, in the number of games managed with 4,769; and he’s taken teams to five World Series, winning two.

Pirates Manager John Russell started the 2010 season batting his pitcher eighth in the Buc's lineup, and there’s renewed interest in the analysis that’s been done to determine the value of a position player batting ninth in the National League. La Russa has noted that his tenure as an American League manager convinced him that the “second lead-off” man batting ninth provided more opportunities for his number 3 and 4 batters to drive in runs. In St. Louis, La Russa has an definite interest in providing baseball’s best overall hitter, Albert Pujols, with as many runners on base as possible whenever his turn at bat comes up.

Typically, the MLB establishment was out buying a corndog at the concession stands when this issue first came up, leaving the baseball saber and statistical community  to crunch the numbers and properly analyze the phenomenon. And, as usual, they came through. Specifically, “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball”, by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin; David Pinto at beyondtheboxscore.com; Cyril Morong at cyrilmorong.com, and a number of other great reseachers have thoroughly examined the impact of batting a position player 9th in the batting order (among many other batting order scenarios). Also, for a good overview on the subject, check out Sky Andrecheck’s April 8, 2010 piece at Sports Illustrated.com.

The hard research seems to point to a modest advantage for National League teams batting their pitcher 8th: an increase from 4.50 runs per game to 4.59 runs per game, about 14.5 runs a year, which results in maybe two additional wins a year. Although I don’t know many managers or general managers who would scoff at two additional wins in a season, a number of those same front office hardheads distain virutally any innovation that’s foreign to their baseball experience.

But not Pirate Manager John Russell. Twenty-five years ago, author Peter Palmer’s classic research (“The Hidden Game of Baseball”) determined that a team’s best hitter, rather than bating third in the order, should bat second. So Bucs centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, considered their best overall hitter, is batting second in the Pirate’s line-up. Tony La Russa may have opened the door, but Buc’s Manager John Russell is taking it to the next level.

Although the Pirates have started the 2010 season with a 7-5 record, no one expects these experiments will result in the instant turnaround of a damaged franchise. But right now, the Pittsburgh Pirates organization is boldly going into the sabermetric universe where no team has gone before, and it will be fascinating to watch what happens.
See Part 2: The Mobius Strip Lineup Theory.
May 1, 2010 note: Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa once again started to bat his pitchers 8th in the batting order in late April 2010.

Game 1 Friday April 16th - Dodgers 10-8
The Giants hope that Todd Wellemeyer's great Spring Training stats would somehow spill over into the first several months of the regular season and solve their 5th starter problem is going up in smoke. In Wellemeyer's defense, his general body of work was contrary to his performance in March; the Giants just crossed their fingers and tried to will him to be a good starter.

Todd Wellemeyer through 4/18/10 

In the top of the 5th inning, centerfielder Aaron Rowand was hit in the face by Dodger starter Vincente Padilla. Padilla, who has a reputation as a bad teammate and a headhunter, was released mid-season last year by the Texas Rangers because he was "regarded as a disruptive clubhouse presence" (S.I.). Inexplicably, the Giants did not retaliate at any time the entire series.

Eugenio Velez took over in center as Rowand went on the DL. Velez is proving once again can hit, and hit with power; now if he can only be more alert on the basepaths.

Game 2 Saturday April 17th - Giants 9-0
Tim Lincecum six shutout innings, 3 for 4 at the plate with 3 RBIs. Bengie Molina continued his great start, going 3 for 7 in the first two games, and is now batting .406. Velez went 3 for 5 and had more adventures on the bases. Three shutout innings from the Giants bullpen.

Game 3 Sunday April 18th - Dodgers 2-1
A brilliant line by Barry Zito: 7.1 innings, 1 run, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts; he has a 1.86 ERA after three starts. Pinch hitter Manny Ramirez hit a two run homer off Giants reliever Sergio Romo in the bottom of the 8th.

Let's clear up some things about this game:
1. Manager Bruce Bochy was correct to take Zito out of the game in the 8th-- he hadn't allowed a run, but after walking Dodger pinch hitter Garret Anderson, Zito was clearly running out of gas.
2. One out in the eighth inning is not when closer Brian Wilson works (or should work). There are six other pitchers in the bullpen, two of whom are responsible for the eighth inning: Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt. Bochy put in the righty Romo against the righty Ramirez, and it just didn't work out.
3. The real issue in this game is that the Giants did not score runs, and they had several good opportunities.

This loss to the Dodgers is nothing new to Giants fans with any kind of short term memory-- throughout 2008 and 2009, great starting pitching performances were repeatedly squandered because the Giant offense could not score runs. Sunday's game was a nasty reminder of those not so long ago days.

The scheduling fairy continued wildly waving her wand over the San Francisco Giants as the Pittsburgh Pirates came to AT&T Park to play the third series of the fledging 2010 season. After opening on the road against a Houston team on the verge of being declared a federal disaster area, the Giants faced the perplexing but talented Atlanta Braves.

The Braves, who look so solid on paper, were placed in a shredder by Giants’ pitching and clutch hitting. Only the semi-weekly appearance of Giants’ 5th starter Todd Wellemeyer prevented a sweep of the Braves. Six games, five wins.

The next day, the Pittsburgh Pirates pulled up to AT&T Park in several dilapidated 1978 Volkswagon vans, carrying their equipment in plastic Safeway bags, and wondering just how they managed to piss off the Old Testament God. Seventeen consecutive losing seasons, and all the Pirates can look forward to in 2010 is maybe a plague of locusts or to be driven into the desert by a high ranking Egyptian official.

The Giants took two out three games from the Pirates, 9-3, 5-6, 6-0, and would have completed the sweep if Giants shortstop Edgar Renteria had made an easy double play. What? Never assume the double play you say? Please. With a runner at first and no outs, pitcher Jeremy Affeldt induced an easy ground ball from the next Arrrrgh... another loss of Biblical proportions      batter, which he snagged and then tossed a perfect feed to second base. Renteria had it clang off his metallic glove and fall to the turf, allowing the next Pirate batter, Garrett Jones, to knock in an unearned run; the same unearned run that tagged Affeldt with the game two loss.

Giants Manager Bruce Bochy was feisty and very defensive in talking with reporters after the game, basically claiming that Renteria’s error was so rare it probably would never happen again. The Giants front office is extremely sensitive about any criticism of Renteria (.250 BA/48 RBI/69 SO/terrible range at short in 2009), who they signed to a ridiculous two year $18.5 million contract in 2009. It’s like the Nixon White House, the bigger the mistake the more hostile the response to questions about the mistake. The type of error Renteria made in the April 13th loss to Pittsburgh isn’t common, but it is symbolic of the variety of ways his defense costs the team runs.

That said, the Giants will not be seeing many baseball challenged teams for the next twenty-three days, facing 18 games with the Dodgers, St. Louis, Philadelphia, the Rockies, Florida, and the Mets. Oh, and a three game breather (hopefully) with San Diego somewhere in the middle. Will this be a test of their early success and enthusiasm? You can bet your iron glove on it.

Awaiting opening day, it is not unusual for baseball fans to have a heightened sense of anticipation if their ball team happens to be scheduled to open the MLB season on the road. But for Giant fans, that was just the tip of the anticipation iceberg.

Not only had the team revamped its offense in the off-season to better support baseball’s best starting and relief pitching, but April 2010 happens to be the 10th anniversary of the opening of a venerated jewel next to San Francisco Bay: AT&T Park. For those of us who attended the Park’s 1997 groundbreaking and April 2000 opening day, it seems impossible that this steel diamond has been part of the eastern waterfront for ten years. Waiting for the Giants to come home made for an extremely long week, even if the team convincingly swept the Astos 5-2, 3-0, and 10-4.

Opening day April 9th was a beautiful post-rainstorm Friday afternoon enjoyed by a sell out crowd of 42,940 fans, officially 103.3% of full capacity— maybe they stuffed a couple of dozen panda-capped citizens in the cable car that overlooks the right center field stands. And it was good to have that many witnesses to watch the slogging grudge match that took place, uphill and backwards.

The Atlanta Braves were in town with Tim Hudson on the mound, and through the first seven innings Hudson simply went through the Giant hitters like goose food through a goose. The first five innings, the Giants meekly went three up and three down. In the 6th, Atlanta shortstop Yunel Escobar’s error allowed John Bowker to get to first base, a distant place known only to Giants hitters through rumor and song. Bowker wasn’t even there long enough to snap some souvenir photos before Juan Uribe fouled out to first baseman Troy Glaus, and Nate Schierholtz grounded into a 6-3 double play.

In the 7th, Aaron Rowand led off with a single to right field, and Edgar Renteria followed with a double, Rowand to third. In keeping with this difficult day of difficult baseball, the Giants finally broke through via two ground ball outs by Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff-- each groundout scoring a run. Since the Braves had been busy scoring three runs, at the end of seven it was 3-2 Atlanta.

After the Braves rudely added a run in the top of the 8th to make the score 4-2, the Giants were thrilled to see that Tim Hudson was inexplicably gone, perhaps attending a 1999 Oakland As reunion across the Bay. Whatever the reason, it appeared to be good news as one-time Dodger closer Takashi Saito toed the mound. The Giant hitters in the bottom of the 8th apparently did not get the Tim-Hudson-gone memo, and promptly went three up and three down. Again.

Giants’ fireballing lefty reliever Dan Runzler started the top of the 9th by walking Braves third baseman Martin Prado, then immediately solved that problem by picking Prado off and getting the next two batters out.

In the bottom of the 9th, behind 4-2, the Braves brought out their new closer, Billy Wagner. Yes, it is the same Billy Wagner who imploded with the hapless Mets last year, the same Billy Wagner with a 96 MPH fastball, and a baseball IQ in the low 70s. Amazingly, Atlanta signed Wagner to pitch for them in 2010 for $6.75 million—apparently Eric Gagne was unavailable.

So the legendary Billy Wagner faced Giants utility man Eugenio Velez in the bottom of the 9th. And, by the way, why are some play-by-play announcers now calling Velez “Gino”? What, a five syllable Latino first name is too much trouble to bother with? And why stop at “Gino”, how about we just call him “Buzz” or “E”? Eugenio might have answered Rod Steiger’s “So what do they call you in ‘Frisco, boy…?” question from “In the Heat of the Night” with “They call me A-U-Hey-Nio...”.

So the legendary Billy Wagner faced Velez, and Mr. Velez hit a double off a 95 mile an hour fastball. An out later, Giant shortstop Edgar Renteria absolutely electricfied the crowd with a two run home off a Wagner curve ball. Why the hell Wagner threw a curve ball in that situation will be investigated later in an upcoming episode of “Miami CSI". With one out in the bottom of the 9th, the Giants tied a game they were absolutely losing right up until that moment.

As Yogi Berra might have described it, “That hit was, in a word, totally awesome.”

Then many things happened: runners from both teams got to third base, Giant relievers did their usual masterful job, and then…   …and then the game went to the bottom of the 13th and the Giants' Jose Uribe walked, stole second, and advanced to third on Atlanta catcher Bruce McCann’s error. Then Uribe scored on a ball hit slowly by Aaron Rowand to the Braves shortstop. Giants win. Giants win. Giants win.

Two things about this game: first, the vast majority of the sold-out crowd stayed through the 13th inning, which showed some very serious fan grit. And, second, this 2010 Giants team showed they were tough and showed they will not give up easily. And, more than having a big-bomb home run hitter, more than having some kind of precious "team chemistry", and more than having the excess cash to purchase expensive free agents, pure grit is worth a lot in the game of baseball.

The 2010 home opening day weekend for the San Francisco Giants was like balancing a tray of crystal glasses while riding a rollercoaster: terrifying, exhilarating, and some stuff got broke.

Giant relievers made 12 appearances and pitched 13 1/3 innings during the three game series with the Atlanta Braves, and given the nature of the games— a 13 inning opening win on Friday, a loss Saturday, and a four hour and eight minute rain delay Sunday that Tim Lincecum won— it could have been a geat deal uglier.

            Sergio Romo

The bullpen line for the Atlanta series is remarkable given the circumstances:

Jeremy Affeldt: 3 innings (1 ER, 2 walks, 1 win)
Waldis Joaquin: 2 innings (3 ER, 3 walks)
Dan Runzler: 2 innings (0 ER, 3 walks)
Brandon Medders: 2 innings (0 ER, 0 walks)
Brian Wilson: 1.2 innings (0 ER, 2 walks)
Guillermo Mota: 1.1 innings (0 ER, 0 walks) 
Sergio Romo: 1.1 innings (0 ER, 0 walks)

Obviously if there is a negative it’s the nine walks, seven in the first game of the series. But the entire bullpen roster was used between all three games, and their overall performance was excellent. Todd Wellemeyer started game two of the series Saturday and went 6.1 innings with four earned runs and a loss. Four relievers were used in that game, which came the day after all seven relievers were used in the 13 inning opener win.

Although Manager Bruce Bochy doesn’t need a fifth starter for pretty much the month of April, he is determined to use Wellemeyer every fifth day to keep his first four starters fresh. But if Wellemeyer can’t nail it down, and his starts regularly become bullpen eaters, the Giants will have to face making an early season change in their starting rotation.

Luckily, this team is cooking at 6-1 and with four quality starters going every fifth day, there should be plenty of opportunities for the bullpen to straighten itself out after the occasional heavy use game. Right now, it looks like the best starting rotation in baseball is being backed up by the best bullpen in baseball.

This is the Giants Cove Annual Top Twenty Pitchers List for 2010. If you have either the Comcast Extra Innings TV package, the MLB Live package, or if any of these guys happen to be starting a game in a ballpark near you, grab a look and enjoy a clinic on how to pitch in the big leagues. And if you are in a fantasy or draft league, and any of these players are available (in this order) when your turn comes up during any round, immediately grab him.

Notes: this is a list of pitchers only, the Giants Cove Annual Top Twenty Players List for 2010 is published below. And as many of you know, following a tradition first begun nearly sixty years ago, all Giants Cove top twenty lists consist of 21 players.

              1.  Tim Lincecum SFG
              2.  Roy Halladay PHI
              3.  CC Sabathia NYY
              4.  Felix Hernandez SEA
              5.  Zack Greinke KC
              6.  John Lester BOS
              7.  Adam Wainwright STL
              8.  Justin Verlander DET
              9.  Dan Haren ARZ
            10. Cliff Lee SEA
            11. Chris Carpenter STL
            12. Josh Johnson FLA
            13. Johan Santana NYM
            14. Josh Beckett BOS
            15. Ubaldo Jimenez COL
            16. Javier Vasquez NYY
            17. Matt Cain SFG
            18. Tommy Hanson ATL
            19. Yovani Gallardo MIL
            20. Wandy Rodriguez HOU
            21. Cole Hammels PHI

The Giants opened on the road to start the 2010 MLB season, playing three games against the Houston Astros. Given Houston’s steady spiral into mediocrity the past several years, this appeared to be a wonderful opportunity for los Gigantes to get off to a great jump on the 2010 season.

But there were (and still are) a number of important questions to be answered as this team begins what may be their most important season in years: would the line-up put up some early runs on the board, or any runs at all, to support the starting pitching? Were the right players selected to make the team at the end of Spring Training? Would the team defense hold up throughout the action?

While an opening series can’t completely answer these questions, the results can be a real indicator of the team’s direction as they begin the fight to win the NL West.

o The Giants won the series 3-0, scoring 18 runs, with 37 hits and 10 walks.

o Lead-off hitter Aaron Rowan went 0-10 in the first two games; then went 4-6 with two RBIs and a run scored in
   game 3.

o Giant pitching was incredible:
  >Game 1: Tim Lincecum 7 innings/4hits/0 runs/0 walks/7 SO.
  >Game 2: Barry Zito 6 innings/3 hits/0 runs/1 walk/5 SO.
  >Game 3: Matt Cain 6.2 innings/6 hits/3 earned runs/0 walks/5 SO.
  >Bullpen games 1-3: 7.1 innings/7 hits/2 runs/1 walk/5 SO.

o Shortstop Edgar Renteria went 8 for 11 (including 5 for 5 in game 3), with 3 RBIs and 2 runs scored.
   His OB% is .846.

o Houston relief pitcher Sammy “The Bull” Gervacio made a huge impression with his stunningly eccentric pitching
  delivery: Gervacio sets up, lifts his head up to look at third base, raises the ball up with his right hand (apparently
  to show the ball to the third base coach), then swings into his delivery.

   Not since the great relief pitcher Mike Fetters has there been such a bizarre pitching delivery. It’s a joy to behold.

o Pablo Sandoval went 4 for 13 (.308) in the series and was not an offensive factor. Which is great news for the Giants;
   they can score runs and win when their top hitter is not carrying them on his back.

A great start for the Giants with a long season to go. But so far, the plan is working and runs are being scored. If the team keeps this up, it’s going to be a very interesting year indeed.

Here is the Giants Cove Annual Top Twenty Players List for 2010. If you have either the Comcast Extra Innings TV package, or the MLB Live package, find the games these guys are playing in, sit back and watch perfection. If you are in a fantasy or draft league, and any of these players are available when your turn comes up during any round, immediately grab him.

Notes: this is a list of offensive players, the Giants Cove Annual Top Twenty Pitchers List for 2010 comes out later this week. And, following a tradition first begun some sixty years ago, all Giants Cove top twenty lists consist of 21 players.

              1.  Albert Pujlos STL 1B
              2.  Hanley Ramirez FLA SS
              3.  Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B
              4.  Ryan Braun MIL OF
              5.  Mark Teixiera NYY 1B 
              6.  Miguel Cabrera DET 1B
              7.  Evan Longoria TAM 3B
              8.  Ryan Howard PHI 1B
              9.  Matt Kemp LAD  OF
            10. Troy Tulowitzki COL SS
            11. Chase Utley PHI  2B
            12. Ian Kinsler TEX  2B
            13. Prince Fielder MIL 1B
            14. Matt Holliday STL OF
            15. Pablo Sandoval SFG 3B
            16. Joe Mauer MIN  C
            17. Justin Upton ARZ OF
            18. David Wright NYM 3B
            19. Kendry Morales LAA 1B
            20. Adam Jones BAL OF
            21. Justin Morneau MIN 1B

While it’s not exactly headline news, it is big news— Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants number one pick in the 2008 amateur draft, has made the team and will end Spring Training 2010 as a member of the Giants 25 man roster.

Giants General Manager Brian Sabean casually mentioned that Posey will make the team during the March 25th television broadcast of the As/Giants exhibition game from Phoenix. Sabean stated that Posey will be “going north” when Spring Training ends, meaning the 23 year-old catcher/infielder is either making the big team, or being sold to the Edmonton Wet Ducks of the Canadian Softball League. I’m going with the former.

Posey has clearly demonstrated to Giants management that he is ready to hit every day in the Majors, the only question being playing time and which glove Posey will be wearing in the field. Posey’s development as a hitter is exciting for the run-starved Giants, who tried to piece together a viable offense in the off season by signing Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff and re-signing catcher Bengie Molina.

In sixteen 2010 Spring Training games, Posey is batting .400 and has demonstrated extraordinary confidence at the plate, especially in two strike counts.

But Posey’s emergence adds to a number of serious roster problems now facing the Giants. Right field, supposedly Nate Schierholtz’s to lose, is getting close to being lost; Schierholtz is batting .234 with 12 strikeouts in 47 at bats through March 25th, and Giants management is getting impatient. The problem is, Spring hitting star John Bowker (.309/18 RBI/4 HR) can really only play left field and the team’s attempt to create a Bowker/Schierholtz competition could lead to, 1) even more team defense sacrificed with Bowker in right field, 2) Bowker’s hot bat being sent to Fresno, or 3) a trade.

Because of Giants second baseman Freddie Sanchez’s ongoing injury problems, Bowker could start the season at AT&T Park in left field, with Mark DeRosa moving to second base. That would also allow infielder Jose Uribe to stay in his primary role as a super sub.

Posey will likely get enough at bats to justify a spot on the big team by catching several days a week, and playing first base several days a week. The problem here, of course, is that Huff and Molina were signed to play those positions in order to get their bats in the line-up every day. So, each Posey at bat theoretically takes an at bat away from the two power players the Giants counted on to create more runs. A daily line-up featuring Huff, Posey, Molina, Pablo Sandoval, and Bowker would be powerful, but seems out of reach.

The other roster issue facing the Giants is how long they are forced to go with Edgar Renteria at shortstop. The team is paying the slow moving Renteria $9 million this year and seemingly has to get value from that contract (and save face) in what has been yet another terrible free agent decision by the current regime. Would longtime infielder Mark DeRosa’s range at short be any worse? Think about the options that would open for the everyday line-up.

In the meantime, watching Buster Posey play at the Major League level will be a treat, and we may look back at Opening Day 2010 as the start of an extraordinary career in the history of the San Francisco Giants.

Friday April 2, 2010 addendum--
The Giants announced today that Buster Posey will not "go north" with the big league team, and has been optioned to the Giants' Fresno Triple A squad. Despite what has been written elsewhere about the move, the front office likely thought about this one a lot, as illustrated by Brian Sabean's quote. No one doubts Posey's potential, that his bat is major league ready, and that the fans want him in the everyday line-up. But what separates the front office from the fans in the stands is the responsibility to make the right decision about rookie players at the right time.

Last year, the Baltimore Orioles faced a similar problem with rookie catcher Matt Wieters, and made the decision to bring him up and put him in the everyday line-up. But Baltimore had not signed a Bengie Molina in the off-season, and the team had little to lose. This Spring the Atlanta Braves decided to put their twenty-year-old star prospect Jason Heyward in right field rather than send him to the minors for more experience.

The problem here is, Buster Posey didn't make this team but Travis Ishikawa did. Ishikawa had a terrible 2009, despite hitting well at home and having a slick glove at first base, and this Spring he did worse: a .233 batting average with 10 strikeouts and no walks in 30 at bats. So Posey, a major league ready starter and star of the future waits off-stage while a Double A hitter makes the team.

For the 2010 Giants every run means everything, and Buster Posey was just sent to Fresno, CA with a boatload of runs .