The San Francisco Giants are not just leading Major League Baseball in errors on the field in 2012. The team's errant attempt to fix their deteriorating and prospect-light minor league system in last week's First Year Player Draft will likely put the organization even deeper in the hole.

Currently the Giants' minor league organizational standing is considered mediocre-- rated 25th of 30 MLB teams by Baseball Prospectus and 26th by Minor League Ball. And there is little doubt that, after the dust settles on the 2012 draft, San Francisco's prospects' rating will drop even lower.       

First, several broad perspectives on the Giants' approach to the draft (see all 40 drafted players at the SF Giants official site):

> the Giants selected 21 pitchers (53% of the total draft) and 7 infielders (18%);
> chose only one position player (outfielder Mac Williamson) in the first eight rounds of the draft;
> picked up one third baseman (Round #20 - Delfino Mitchell, UC Berkeley);
> used 25% of their picks to select six center fielders and four catchers-- currently the two strongest positions in their minor league system.

Several years ago, the Giants farm system seemed to be rich in pitching but was dramatically lacking in quality position players. Now, San Francisco has also lost its edge in quality pitching prospects-- there's little of value in the minors now other than bullpen flamethrower Heath Hembree.

We saw the team's stark lack of upcoming infield talent exposed when third baseman Pablo Sandoval went down last month with a broken hand, and with second baseman Freddy Sanchez still going through various rehabs. Triple A Fresno third bagger Conor Gillaspie and second baseman Charlie Culberson were called up but couldn't get the job done at the plate or on the field.

(Luckily, the Giants picked up ex-Rangers/Mets infielder Joaquin Arias in the off-season, and his great glove and timely hitting stopped the bleeding at third base.)

Giants GM Brian Sabean's core philosophy during his 20 year tenure is that you can never have enough pitching. And that's hard to argue with both in theory and in practice (see Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Wilson, etc.).

But... this is a team that has has now suffered through chronic offensive shortages for years. The Giants 2012 batting line-up is their best in almost ten years, but as good as Sandoval, Buster Posey, Melky Cabrera, and Angel Pagan have been there is no consistent power threat from anyone in that group. Which brings us back to the 2012 Draft.

San Francisco picked Mississippi State right hander Chris Stratton with their first pick in round #1-- the 20th overall pick. Converted from reliever to starter, Stratton has 115 SO and 19 BB in 92 innings pitched this year, and throws a fastball in the early 90s. Definitely a very good selection.

But five picks later Tampa Bay used their first pick to snag Clemson third baseman Richie Shaffer, a junior who scouts have described as having "massive power", and one of the top infielders in the draft.

Shaffer started in all of Clemson's 63 games in 2012 and his numbers were great: .336 BA, .480 OBP, 46 RBI, 49 R, 63 BB, 21 2B, and 10 HR; he has the look of a future offensive star for Tampa.

Shaffer would have been a dynamic first pick for the run-starved Giants, who still would have had plenty of time to restock their pitching.

And there were any number of quality infield picks available when it was the Giants' turn to draft their first eight players. Instead the front office not only ignored the team's offensive holes at first and third base, they used 25% of their remaining picks to draft players at the organization's only two strong positions throughout the Minor Leagues-- catcher and center field.

There are those who believe teams should choose the best player available at any given point in the draft-- but that still involves a large amount of subjective evaluation. Smart baseball people, sometimes in the same organization, often disagree about who the best available player is at any point in the draft.

In the current era, MLB franchises make huge investments of money and time in draft picks; the idea that you can simply trade those players later for the ones you really need is hardly a reliable strategy. 

But in this case, let's hope that strategy pays off.

--Read more about the Giants' top picks in the 2012 First Year Player Draft in The Giants Cove "Prospects" section in the right column--

The Chicago Cubs of the National League Central Division recently let it be known that they've had enough. They're through with Major League Baseball for at least the next two or three years and they just want to be left alone.

Apparently the club has let various Major League Baseball media know that every player on the current roster except shortstop Starlin Castro is for sale at any price.

To begin their, what, 18th rebuilding project in the last 14 years the Cubs are conducting what is traditionally called a "fire sale" to celebrate their 18-36 record-- second worst in Major League Baseball. "Fire sale" implies something terrible happened (see the team's current 25 man roster) and formally valuable property may now be purchased at bargain rate prices by one and all.

If you're smart you'll want to be the first one in line with the Cubs sales coupon from last Sunday's Chicago Tribune. Present your coupon to team President Theo Epstein to receive your valuable Cub player discounts.

Otherwise you might miss out on:

1) Alfonso Soriano who no longer bothers to even pay attention during actual games since signing an 8 year $136 million contract in 2007. He routinely dogs plays in the outfield; at the plate Soriano favors swinging at inside pitches in the dirt. And that's the good news.

The bad news is that the Cubs owe Soriano $18 million this year, $18 million in 2013, and $18 million in 2014.

The Chicago front office has been trying for the last three years to dump Soriano, offering to pay virtually all of his remaining salary to any team willing to take him. But there are currently no teams in the market for a sulking, overpaid slacker who also brings a radioactive presence to the clubhouse.

That means Alfonso Soriano's unselfish commitment and pure joy for the game will be on display in Wrigley Field for years to come. How sweet is that?     

2) Carlos Marmol who was the closer for a while, then lost the job, then got it back, then lost it again. He needs to GPS that puppy. Marmol will get $7 million in closer money this season as he attempts to knock down that 0-2 record, 5.40 ERA, and 2.00 WHIP.

3) This one kind of doesn't count, because the Chicago Cubs aren't able to trade the following three players to whom they still owe about $26 million dollars. Because these players are no longer actual members of the team:

-- Carlos Zambrano will get $16.45 million from the Cubs this year even though he is now with the Miami Marlins. Zambrano was an angry, disruptive horse's ass who was so disrespectful to his teammates, the fans, and the Cub organization that the team decided it was better to pay him sixteen and a half million dollars than have him in a Cub's uniform even one more day.

-- Marlon Byrd will receive checks amounting to $6,500,000 from the Cub's bank account in 2012, to be mailed to his new address with the Boston Red Sox. The Cubs cut Byrd loose in April after 13 games in which he hit .070 with a .219 OPS. Prior to that he had achieved tremendous success as a marginal player.

-- Retired pitcher Kerry Wood will still be busy in 2012, deciding how to spend the $3 million the Chicago Cubs will be paying him not to pitch. After an 0-3 8.31 ERA start to the 2012 season Wood retired. To be fair, Kerry Wood is actually a real gamer who had tremendous promise when he came up with the Cubs in 1998. But Tommy John surgery and a host of other medical issues plagued him throughout his career.

4) Starting pitcher Ryan Dempster who has shown value at times in his fifteen year career, winning 17 games once, and 15 games twice. But he is making $14 million in 2012 from the Cubs and has an 0-3 record to start the season.

Most amazingly, Dempster could have an additional $4.55 million coming to him if he meets a series of incentives, like the $200,000 extra he'll make if he finishes 3rd in Cy Young Award voting.

If he finishes 4th in Cy Young balloting Dempster gets a set of steak knives. If he finishes 5th, he's fired. (Thank you David Mamet.)

The rest of the Cubs roster is chock full of guys making $500,000-$1m in salary. Which means they're either new or not so hot. Which is why the Cubs are about to announce a "buy two you get one free"-sale, followed by a "please just take them off our hands"-sale.

This kind of MLB team fire sale opportunity comes along maybe once every ten or twenty years. That is unless you're the Chicago Cubs baseball club of the National League Central Division.

Tuesday May 29th marks game number 50 for the San Francisco Giants in the 2012 campaign. It is also a critical jumping off point for the rest of the season.

San Francisco's current 26-23 (.531) record is a long, hot and dusty bus ride to an 86-76 final stop at the end of September. In the close work world of MLB win/loss numbers, a mere three game swing in those numbers (to 29-20, .592) puts los Gigantes on a 96 win arch and a likely lock on an October playoff spot.     

At this point in any season I always recall Giants' President and CEO Larry Baer's smart season-long perspective on team evaluation and management: the first 50 games are to assess the team you've got; the second 50 games are to make the necessary adjustments; and the final 62 games are all about wins.
 
So where are we as we reach the first 50 games of the 2012 season? Actually, not so bad. No massive overhauls required, but several critical personnel moves and a couple of other adjustments are needed to move forward. To do what needs to be done, the front office will need to be proactive and willing to make several tough decisions.

Offense: B+
After years of anemic run scoring and weak line-ups that presented few problems to National League pitching, the 2012 Giants' everyday offense is proving to be the best run-producing unit San Francisco has seen in ten years. To date the team is hitting .260, 8th out of 30 MLB teams and 4th in the National League.

San Francisco has scored 200 runs, ranking 19th in MLB and 10th in the National League in that category; and they are scoring an average of 4.08 runs per game. So the hitting is finally beginning to provide real support to their outstanding pitching. And that's big news.

The Giants' hitting attack will start moving up in all offensive categories by mid-June when Pablo Sandoval comes off the DL and is back in the everyday line-up. Sandoval's return can't be overestimated in the impact he will have on run scoring and strengthening an already good offensive attack.
 
The astounding performance of current 3rd place hitter Melky Caberea prompted SF Chronicle sports writer Henry Schulman to discuss the Giants batting order once Sandoval returns. There is no question that Cabrera should continue to hit 3rd in the order, with Sandoval moving from 3rd to 4th, and Buster Posey dropping back to 5th.

Add Gregor Blanco leading off and Angel Pagan batting second, and the Giants will have a potentially serious offensive machine capable of producing enough runs to drive the runs-per-game average to 4.5+ during the last four and a half months of the season:

1. Gregor Blanco RF  (.403 OBP, 21 BB, 22 RS)
2. Angel Pagan CF  (.309 BA/.353 OBP/.821 OPS)
3. Melky Cabrera LF  (.368 BA/.414 OBP/.966 OPS)
4. Pablo Sandoval 3B  (.316 BA/.375 OBP/.912 OPS)
5. Buster Posey C  (.295 BA/.358 OBP/.826 OPS)

Joaquin Arias should move seamlessly from third to second base when Sandoval returns. That leaves Brandon Belt (1B), Brandon Crawford (SS), and Arias (2B) to provide defense and whatever additional offense they can add to the mix.

Pitching: A
The trials and tribulations of Tim Lincecum have overshadowed what has otherwise been a very good year for Giants starters and the bullpen. San Francisco is 5th overall in MLB with a 3.44 team ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. They are 4th in NL team ERA and tied for first in the National League with 4 shutouts. The bullpen comes in at 4th in the NL with a 3.08 ERA.

Sure, Lincecum getting back on track would certainly help, but his 2-5 record is not what's holding this team up. Besides, Barry Zito's excellent start (4-2 with a 3.41 ERA) has offset Lincecum's issues; and when Lincecum reboots, the starting rotation could be unstoppable.      

Defense: D- (I hate giving "F"s)
With 51 errors so far the Giants lead the world in errors. But it's not the errors that are killing them, it's the unearned runs that result from those errors. That is what has really dragged this team down in 2012.

The Giants lead the Majors with 29 unearned runs allowed in their their first 49 games-- an average of .59 unearned runs per game. That brings additional pressure and tensions that undercut the pitching and the offense at every turn.

Here are the top 10 teams in unearned runs to date:
San Francisco - 29
Baltimore - 27
Tampa Bay - 26
Colorado - 26
Houston - 26
San Diego - 24
Milwaukee - 22
Detroit - 21
Texas - 21
Cincinnati - 20

The problem is the infield where 43 of the 51 errors have been made. Second base has been a defensive/offensive hole all year but that should be addressed when Sandoval comes back and Arias moves to second.

Shortstop Brandon Crawford (10 errors) is a rookie player with immense talent; his first full year is a learning curve that is well worth going through. With Crawford's incredible range and strong arm, soon enough he will be a defensive star at short-- something San Francisco hasn't had in like twenty years.

If there is an expectation for the rest of the season regarding errors it is that they will stop piling up at the current rate. But so far the errors have absolutely ground this team down and those 29 unearned runs more than accounted for the three game swing mentioned above.

Personnel Issues
There are two player issues the 2012 San Francisco Giants need to address.

First, what to do with Hector Sanchez. Pegged as the back-up catcher to Buster Posey, Sanchez has proven to be an RBI producer. He has a nice .284 BA, a poor .286 OBP, but in 74 at-bats Sanchez has plated 17 RBI. He brings power to an offense that doesn't hit many home runs (the Giants are 29th of 30 MLB teams with 31 home runs).

When Posey plays first base, Sanchez catches-- maybe once or twice a week. The idea has been floated to either, a) move Posey to first base and have Sanchez catch full time; or, b) play Hector Sanchez at first and bring up Eli Whiteside from Triple A Fresno to back up Posey behind the plate.

Giant fans around the galaxy need to understand one important point: Buster Posey is the catcher, he has no desire to move to any other position, and he is having a tremendous offensive start to the season. So a) is out.

Sanchez has worked out a little at first base and the Giants could try him out there. But the team is committed to Brandon Belt, and the idea has been to get more playing time at first for Belt. As it stands right now, Belt has more power and RBI potential than Sanchez, and Belt has an outstanding glove at first base (which goes back to the critical defense/errors issue).

So the Giants should relax when it comes to Hector Sanchez; let him catch Barry Zito, come off the bench late in games, and spot start as needed. It's not terrible to have a bat like his in the dugout-- winning teams have that.

The second personnel issue is about clearing the roster of players who have simply not produced and bring little to the party. Emmanuel Burriss (.212 BA/.499 OPS), Nate Schierholtz (.250 BA/.297 OBP), Brett Pill (.209 BA/.652 OPS), and Aubrey Huff (.167 BA/.588 OPS) are taking up roster spots and not consistently producing.

There are legitimate rationales to keep Pill and Schierholtz (righty and lefty bats off the bench, occasional power, Schierholtz's glove), and Huff (the Giants are paying him $11m this season and that's a lot to kiss off). But with an experienced infielder like Ryan Theriot in place Burriss seems likely to be non-tendered when Sandoval comes back.

Look for possible sidebar trades involving Schierholtz and/or Pill by July. The Giants will certainly not get much in return, likely a young minor league arm or two. But it opens up the roster to a potential bigger trade or possibly bringing up one of their talented minor leaguers with some pop in his bat.

June 2012 will be a critically important month for the Giants: they need to get their defense and infield in order, jumpstart the overall momentum, and make up some ground on the Los Angeles Dodgers. It will be fun to watch.

On May 16th San Francisco Giants Manager Bruce Bochy batted starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner 8th in the batting order, and he almost issued a written apology over it. In interviews before and after the game, Bochy grumbled, looked down and seemed embarrassed as he told reporters he's trying to score more runs but "this probably won't happen again".

Bruce Bochy attended the baseball school that was in place before the old school was built, so he isn't going to be putting something new or innovative in place on a baseball diamond any time soon. The fact that he started his pitcher in the 8th spot in the batting order twice since taking over as Giants' manager in 2007 is itself an astounding development.

The other time? On May 20, 2010 Bochy batted Tim Lincecum in the eighth slot against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Which makes it 2 games out of 851 so far.

Although Bruce Bochy is more comfortable matching righty-lefty line-ups, it is always relevent to note that he won the 2010 World Series and is known as a masterful bullpen tactician.

The concept of batting the pitcher 8th has seen two great proponents in the past fourteen years: former St. Louis Cards Manager Tony La Russa and former Pirates Manager John Russell.

Tony La Russa was one of the greatest managers in the history of the game-- 3rd all time in wins (2,728), second all time in games (5.097), and 3rd all time in number of playoff appearances (14). He had the credentials to do just about anything he wanted.
  
In 1998, La Russa's third year as Cards' manager, what he wanted was to increase the team's run scoring potential with a "second lead-off man" batting 9th-- especially with #3 batter Mark McGwire hitting home runs. So on July 9, 1998 he began batting his pitcher 8th in the line-up and did that through the remaining 76 games of the season.

Throughout the rest of his tenure in St. Louis, La Russa had a streaky attachment to batting his pitcher 8th: for eight seasons following 1998 he didn't do it once. Then on August 5, 2007 La Russa inexplicably went back to the second lead-off man concept for the remaining 56 games of that season.

In 2008 La Russa batted his pitcher 8th in 153 games; in 2009, 54 games; in 2010, 77 games; and in 2011, 13 games. No doubt a lot depended on La Russa having an actual "second lead-off" batter who would have the OBP to qualify fitting into the #9 spot in the order.

John Russell managed the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2008 through 2010. In the 2008 season Russell experimented by hitting his starter 8th in the order in 27 games. In 2009 he didn't do it once. In 2010 Russell announced he was going to use a second lead-off man in the Pirates' batting order the entire year. It lasted only the first 24 games of the season before ownership essentially shut it down.

Two statements about Major League Baseball's establishment are true in the extreme: 1) strategic innovations (like batting the pitcher 8th or recognizing the value of player OBP) are looked upon with suspicion and disdain; 2) revenue increasing innovations (like interleague play, and expanded playoffs) are welcomed with open arms. And the game's traditions and integrity? Well that all depends.

While hitting the pitcher 8th in the batting order is a huge step in the direction of increasing long term run production, it still falls short of the perfect batting line-up. The Mobius Strip Theory, conceived by this writer in 2010, presents the best possible mathematically designed run scoring attack.

I will re-present the Mobius Strip Theory using the current San Francisco Giants roster in an upcoming blog. It has been described (primarily by me) as a stunning and historic innovation in MLB run generation. I only hope the first team to experimentally use the Mobius Strip Theory is not the Pittsburgh Pirates.

When Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval went down two weeks ago with a broken bone in his left hand two things happened: San Francisco lost the heart of their offense, and the organization's lack of infield depth at the Major and upper Minor League levels was almost immediately exposed.

To replace Sandoval the front office called up Conor Gillaspie, their number one third base prospect at Triple A Fresno.

Not only was Gillaspie unable to get his bat going (6 games, 20 ABs, .150AVG), it became clear he did not have a Major League-caliber arm. Several of Gillaspie's routine plays were much closer than they should have been, and he simply didn't appear to have the afterburner arm needed to get outs when throwing off-balance or charging bunts.

Eventually extra infielder Joaquin Arias was tabbed to take over at third base until Sandoval returns. Arias has filled in very well defensively and on this team his .250 BA makes him an offensive god in the batting order.  

At second base it appears that Freddy Sanchez may be rehabbing through the rest of his contract. Ryan Theriot (.217) and Emmanuel Burriss (.221) have shown little either defensively or offensively.

So to fix second base, the Giants brought up Charlie Culberson from Triple A Fresno, who in a very small sample size is hitting .091 in 3 games, with 11 ABs and 4 SOs. But Culberson is not the long range solution at second base for San Francisco-- a guy named Joe Panik will likely fill that role.

Minor League hitting machine Joe Panik is playing shortstop at Single A Salem-Keizer and is putting up serious numbers: .346AVG/.401OBP/.868OPS. Panik is several years away from the Majors and a college injury will likely mean he joins the big team as a second baseman.

It's true that minor league shortstops Nick Noonan, 23, at Fresno (.314/.369/.768), and Ehire Adrianza, 22, at AA Richmond, have at times shown promise either at the plate (Noonan) or with the glove (Adrianza). And Chris Dominguez at Richmond has great potential as a third baseman with power.

But here's the 400 pound reality check in the room: there are simply no immediate upgrades available to Bruce Bochy at those three critical infield positions.

Management started the 2012 season giving shortstop Brandon Crawford a reluctant pass on his hitting in order to bring his outstanding glove to the Giants' infield. Crawford has fulfilled the hitting part of the bargain (.225 BA, .275 OBP) but hasn't found a consistent defensive groove.

Crawford clanked 8 errors in the first month and a half of the season, but my guess is he settles down and that glove starts to get consistent and routinely spectacular real soon.

[There's seems to be an epidemic of shortstop errors in the National League-- the Cubs' Starlin Castro has 8 errors, LA's Dee Gordon has 9 errors, and the otherwise incredible Troy Tulowitzki has 7 errors. Go figure.]

What the Giants' minor league system is producing is a lot of really promising outfielders (Gary Brown, Francisco Peguero, Roger Kieschnick) and catchers (Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joseph, Andrew Susac).

If the long range plan is to put Buster Posey at first base, you can start to see in the direction San Francisco will need to go to upgrade the infield: trading some number of Major League prospects, like Brandon Belt, Hector Sanchez, or maybe Brett Pill, as well as some number of the above named minor league outfielders and catchers. 
 
For now, San Francisco is a team desperately treading water. In the twelve games played since Sandoval was put on the DL San Francisco hitters have managed only a .248 BA and scored an average of 3.33 runs per game-- usually a recipe for 4-8 record. The Minnesota Twins are averaging 3.31 runs per game which has earned them 10 wins and 26 losses so far this season-- the worst record in baseball.

But the Giants are 6-6 in those twelve games, yet another example of how dominant pitching can help compensate for a batting line-up that cannot score runs. With the Panda out for another four weeks, this is a team waiting for a winning streak and trying to stay relevant in the NL West.

San Francisco Giant fans are busy searching for just the right disaster metaphor to describe how badly the first month and a half of the 2012 season has gone for their beloved Gigantes. You can join in, and it's loads of fun!

Create your own catastrophic image of the 2012 Giants' season by using combinations of the following classic disaster elements: the arrival of Godzilla in Tokyo, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the Nixon presidency, or any number of zombies-roaming-the-earth scenarios. And I believe that Federal law mandates that you must throw in one gratuidous Titanic reference.
   
Don't get me wrong, I love San Francisco fans, but there is a small minority out there whose apparent enthusiastic use of medication makes them repeatedly dial sports talk radio hosts and bloviate uncontrollably about how doomed the Giants are at any given moment.

Sports talk callers frequently use those 50,000 kilowatts to display profound mid and long term memory loss combined with an inability to understand any statistics beyond batting average and how many contestants are left on "American Idol" this week.

So whenever the Giants lose a game the talkshow airwaves are once again filled with "why don't they play Brett Pill play everyday because he can really hit the ball" (.234BA); or, "Nate Schierholtz is a great ballplayer because he has a such strong arm" (Nate the Great's base running and defense has single-handedly contributed to at least two losses this season); and "why doesn't Brian Sabean just trade Steve Edlefsen and Emmanuel Burriss to the Yankees for Robinson Cano?".

The basic question out there is, as of May 14, 2012 are the Giants in fact a crunchy and frequently buttered breakfast food often enjoyed with juice or coffee?

Not hardly, pilgrim. Success, as someone should have have said, has a million sperm donors; defeat is an orphan with outstanding felony warrants and untreatable STDs. At least on sports talk radio.

Sure, the San Francisco Giants have gone through difficult times this year-- run scoring is harder to find than a spotted owl, the defense smells like it's several months past its use-by date, and the pitching seems to cough up runs at all the wrong moments. But as bad as things have been, it's not time to start elbowing the women and children off the lifeboats just yet.

Because the story so far is a lot more positive than it may appear.

After losing their best hitter, Pablo Sandoval, for 6 weeks with a broken bone in his hand; after seeing lefty bullpen mainstay Jeremy Affeldt go down with an injury for two weeks; as the wait for former NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez to return from rehab continues for months; and after the team's ace Tim Lincecum has tanked in to the tune of 2 wins 3 losses, a 1.58 WHIP and 39 hits with 19 walks in 36.2 IP...   after all that, guess what?

The Giants are 17-17 and a mere 6 games behind the hottest team in baseball-- the 23-11 Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco just finished a 3-3 road trip and players like Melky Cabrera, Gregor Blanco and Joaquin Arias are stoking up.

Sometimes it's best to go against Van Morrison's advice and just turn off your radio. With 128 games to go there's plenty of time to put this season into drive and start lapping the field.

The San Francisco Giants have apparently found a cure for run scoring fever. Apparently it involves getting a lot of rest during every half inning of every game, and making more frequent visits to the medical clinic.

The numbers, as they often do, speak volumes: the first 16 games of the season saw the Giants scoring 4.44 runs per game, a full run per game higher than their disastrous 2011 offense produced.

Even San Francisco’s modest 9-7 record after game 16 put the team on a promising 91 win pace. But the last 8 games have seen the runs dribble down to 2.75 per game and a predictable 3-5 win/loss record.

At the same time injury and medical problems have turned the bullpen inside out, kept Freddy Sanchez from starting his 2012 season, and put Aubrey Huff on the shelf for at least several weeks.   

But save crossing your fingers for Pablo Sandoval’s hand injury. In last night’s 10th inning 3-2 loss to the Marlins, Sandoval left the game after the 6th inning with “severe pain” in his left hand.

One year ago today, May 3, 2011, Sandoval broke the hamate bone in his right hand and missed six weeks. Sandoval leads the Giants with 30 hits. To say this could be very bad doesn’t even scratch the surface of massive understatement.

Update: And it's a very bad update. Sandoval broke the bone in his left hand; surgery scheduled for this Friday; Pablo's out for six weeks. And that's a major blow for the team.

On another front, the Giants have played the denial card following the loss of closer Brian Wilson. Fill-in Santiago Casilla does a fairly good impression of a closer, but his former spot in the bullpen has not been filled. And Jeremy Affeldt’s latest domestic injury has left the pen in dominoes-falling disarray.

(Historic note: no team since the emergence of the modern bullpen in the late 1980s has achieved post season success with a “closer by committee” strategy. Bottom line: the Giants will have to go out and get a closer by the July trade deadline.) 

On the offensive side of this very bad nickel is former uber-god Nate Schierholtz who has found his normal offensive comfort zone with a .262 BA and a .290 OBP. Schierholtz had one good two week period in 2011, and looks like he may have used that up already in 2012.

Brandon Belt is contributing with a .273 BA and .360 OBP, but the Giants continue to treat Belt like he just got his drivers’ license, playing him in only 75% of games so far this season.

Sandoval, Buster Posey (.342 BA/.975 OPS), and Melky Cabrera (.293 BA, leads the team with 10 walks) are the mainstays of the offense so far. Lead-off hitter Angel Pagan is starting to show more plate discipline and surprising power, and he will be the key to reigniting the San Francisco offense.

Difficult times call for a simple solution: score more runs. See? Problem solved (and you're welcome).

No one can know what professional athletes go through to achieve the highest level in any sport. It obviously has a lot to do with how they grew up, with having extraordinary talent and knowing how to develop it, and with bringing complete commitment. Squared.

And sometimes, even all that is not enough.

On Monday April 23rd, Aubrey Huff of the San Francisco Giants mysteriously left the team for what was termed a “family emergency”. From the start of the 2012 season, baseball fans and sports writers could see that Huff was having a difficult time at the plate and in the field. This after signing a large contract following the Giants 2010 Championship season, then putting up subpar numbers in 2011.

But no one knew how tough things really were.

Giants Manager Bruce Bochy announced today that Huff is on the 15 day DL and that he would be receiving treatment for an anxiety attack. The Giants are hopeful Aubrey Huff will returning to the team within a week and continue his treatment.

In February 2006, Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Zack Greinke, then with the Kansas City Royals, went out for the season after he was diagnosed with social anxiety disorder (SAD) and depression. Greinke was treated by a sports psychologist and received anti-depressant medication.

Since returning to baseball, Zack Greinke has excelled and reestablished his professional career.

Last Saturday in a late inning tight game against the New York Mets, Giants’ Manager Bruce Bochy ran out of infielders. Huff was moved from first base to second base—a position he had never played before. On a potential double play ball hit to shortstop Brandon Crawford, Huff failed to cover second base. The Mets rallied and eventually won the game.
  
The pressures of performing on a national stage under intense media scrutiny can be daunting. Add to that the demanding expectations players put on themselves and it is amazing that more pro athletes aren’t affected by anxiety or depression. And always in the background are the stresses inherent in everyday life.

Here’s hoping Aubrey Huff works through his stuff and gets on the other side of a serious and difficult medical condition. I’m rooting for him even harder now than I ever did watching him play baseball.

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Look What’s Happened
The San Francisco Giants have won five of their first six series to start the 2012 season, culminating in physically muscling 3 out of 4 games against the New York Mets in delightful Citi Field this past weekend.

Three developments early on in the current campaign bode extremely well for San Francisco, and not so good for the rest of the National League.

1. This team has consistently hit and scored runs from jump. The Giants even scored 14 runs in their three straight losses to the Arizona Diamondbacks at the start of the 2012 season. It was clear even in the middle of that mess that something was different this year.

They are plating an average of 4.44 runs per game and are currently 15th of 30 MLB team in run scoring with 71. The uptick in runs scored has already provided huge support to the starting pitchers, who were quietly grinding their teeth the past three years while going through endless 1-0, 3-2, and 4-3 losses.

2. After a shaky start the starting pitching has gotten its act together.  

The opening series with Arizona was a bizarro world nightmare in which Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner lost the first two games against the Snakes, and Matt Cain gave up 5 earned runs in 6 innings, allowing Arizona to complete the sweep. Plus, fourth starter Ryan Vogelsong was still rehabbing and not yet in the rotation.

Now all that seems like it happened two years ago.

Barry Zito followed the grateful getaway from Arizona with a stunning complete game shutout of the Colorado Rockies in Denver. Since Zito’s masterpiece the Giants have gone 9-4. And after two starts, Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. The ship is righted and steaming forward at high speed.

3. The defense has settled down.

Through the first two series with Arizona and Colorado, the Giants made 9 errors-- 8 of those in the infield. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey, who were expected to bring defensive excellence, led the anti-webgem parade.

The Giants are still tied with Baltimore and San Diego the most MLB errors (19), but the defense is getting its footing back.

Nothing brought this home better than the double play pulled off by second baseman Emmanuel Burriss and shortstop Brandon Crawford against the Mets in the 5th inning of Tim Lincecum’s first win of 2012.

With the bases loaded and one out, the Mets’ Ike Davis hit a streaking ground ball up the middle that Burriss somehow got to and backhanded as he lunged for the ball. He flipped the ball up with his glove to Brandon Crawford, who picked it out of the air with his bare hand on the bag at second, then fired to first base to complete the double play.

The real amazing part of that play for me was that Burriss' throw was a little high, and when Crawford reached up to catch it the ball actually hit his wrist. In a heartbeat, Crawford calmly let the ball slide up to his hand and into throwing position. An incredible no way double play.

Nate Schierholtz
I have long been a strong advocate of Nate Schierholtz, and I have to take credit for discovering him several years ago. [Just kidding, of course.]

I have actually been critical of the Giants for sticking with Schierholtz if that in any way keeps Brandon Belt from playing. The so-called Aubrey Huff-Belt controversy is a mcguffin—the Giants planned to stick with Huff for a while because of his $11.5m contract. Which means either Belt or Schierholtz plays.

I continue to believe the Giants are tip-toeing around Belt’s development too carefully—Belt needs at-bats and the Giants need him to get at-bat experience.

Having said that, Nate Schierholtz has caught fire in a way he has never done in his career. Schierholtz had a nice two week period last season, but this is something different.

So far in 2012, Schierholtz has a .372 AVG, a .404 OBP and a 1.148 OPS. He has 7 extra base hits (XBH), including 3 triples, and 9 RBI. Stunning.

I bow to the god that is Nate Schierholtz and present a burnt offering of rare John Bowker baseball cards.

Panda
This has all the appearances of the season Pablo Sandoval breaks out into the offensive upper stratosphere.

To watch his at-bats is the definition of excitement. The approach at the plate, the powerful swing, the ability to excel with two strikes, and the ability to create runs is breathtaking this season.

Some numbers: .545 SLG, .333 AVG, 13 RBI, tied for 9th in MLB with 22 hits. Sandoval is hitting .421 when he’s ahead in the count, .286 when he’s behind in the count. And has a .398 RISP.

In the 1st inning of the second game with the Mets yesterday, Sandoval hit an upper deck two run home run. His swing was powerful and majestic, arms extended, hips and legs turned, a moment of pure baseball joy.

Of course it's early, but so far the numbers are stark and they are not pleasant: ten games played, four wins and six losses, 45 runs scored, 48 runs against. Tied for third place in the National League West with the Colorado Rockies. Oh, and just for the record the Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-1 with a 17 run differential (50 RS, 33 RA).

We might as well throw in the other bad news: closer Brian Wilson is out for the season facing his second Tommy John surgery to repair his injured elbow. And Giants ace starter Tim Lincecum is now 0-2 with 22 hits and 16 runs allowed in 13.2 IP; that's a 1.90 WHIP and a 10.54 ERA. Lincecum has given up 9 first inning runs in his three starts this year; last year he gave up only 8 first inning runs in 33 starts. 

Last but not least, the San Francisco Giants lead the Majors with 14 errors so far in 2012 (14 teams have 5 or less errors).

Even a casual observer from northern Canada would note that several wheels have come off the bus. But let’s not start selling our garlic fry stock portfolios just yet: the bus hasn't even approached on on-ramp to the freeway that is the 2012 season, so there’s plenty of time to make repairs.

The San Francisco Giants are a smart organization with money to spend (more on that later), so the bus will be jacked up, new wheels will be attached and all the passengers will be served delicious snacks. [OK, I'll stop with the bus metaphors. But be forewarned I fully intend to use bus metaphors throughout the 2012 season in these pages. And I further plan to excessively use a variety of bus metaphors in many other areas of my personal life.]

This is the part of the blog where you would expect a list all the positive stuff that’s happened so far. You know, to create that sense of balance and perspective that would hopefully disassociate me from the “Brett-Pill-needs-to-play-everyday” angry crowd with their Nate Schierholtz signs and dim torches.

But things are better than that: this team is going to do very well in 2012 once they get their footing. There’s no way to rationalize Brian Wilson (36 saves, 6-4, 54 SO in 55 IP in 2011) being out for the season—until the Giants solve the closer problem it will threaten to disrupt what might be baseball’s best bullpen. Put Santiago Casilla in the closer role and you now need to replace him, and so on and so on.

Minor league pitching monster Heath Hembree is at Triple A Fresno (4 games, 4 IP, 2 saves, 1-0, 0.75 WHIP), but it would be out of character for the front office to bring him up to replace Wilson. The Giants tread very softly around player development and probably for good reason. Bring Hembree up too soon, have him crash and burn, and you could do serious damage to his confidence.

That doesn't mean Hembree couldn’t join the bullpen and replace, say, Casilla-- but it’s unlikely. The Giants need to get a new closer and they will have to work on a trade to get that done. And it needs get done sooner than later.

For a team that needed to score more runs in 2012, Giants’ hitters have come through spectacularly so far: 4.5 runs per game this season. Contrast that with 2011, 3.51 runs per game; 2010, 4.30 runs; 2009, 4.05 runs; and 2008, 3.95 runs.

Although 2012 is too small a sample to make any serious predictions, if San Francisco hitters happen to maintain that .99 increase above 2011 it would equal 160 more runs scored in 2012. Which will win a lot of baseball games.

This team is hitting and scoring runs. But what they are not doing so far in 2012 is driving in runners in scoring position (RISP). The Toronto Blue Jays lead the Majors with a .362 RISP average; the Giants are 23rd overall with a .202 RISP.

But early on, San Francisco is 12^th in MLB run scoring with 45; St. Louis leads the Majors with 57 RS. If the line-up can sustain their RS totals anywhere from 15th-20th overall it would be more than enough to support the starting staff and bullpen the rest of the way. Eventually the RISP numbers should begin to increase along the way.

The other huge impact on this team early in 2012 is ownership’s bold moves to wrap up key players in medium-term and long-term contracts. Lincecum is locked in for 2012-13; which will give him plenty of time to work out his mechanics and demonstrate his value for a longer term deal. Starter Ryan Vogelsong was signed for 2012-13 at $8.3m, and Pablo Sandoval took a three year deal 2012-14 for $17.5m.

Matt Cain’s monster deal keeps him pitching at AT&T Park through at least 2017, and the Giants recently secured 22-year-old starter Madison Bumgarner’s services through 2017 by agreeing to a $35m deal. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reported the front office has contacted agents for both Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum concerning contract extensions.

The critical core of the team that won the 2010 World Series is being preserved by GM Brian Sabean and President Larry Baer, which means this team will be in post season contention now and for years to come. That puts the Giants’ 4-6 start into a much better perspective. I mean, doesn't it?