In the past twenty years, Major League Baseball has experienced a slow but powerful revolution on a dozen fronts that has altered, refined, and expanded the game in ways inconceivable twenty-five years ago.

Key aspects of baseball have evolved, like Divisional and Inter-league play. Sabermetrics has opened up a new world of objective analysis that has altered the value of traditional statistics and continues to create more relevant measures of player performance. MLB franchise ownership has become an almost automatic income generating machine thanks to exponential increases in national and local media contract revenues.  

One of the final frontiers in the game is the evolution of the bullpen, a process which continues as the 2013 season is set to begin. For the San Francisco Giants, the art of the bullpen is a major building block of success in carving out two World Championships in the past three years.

Manager Bruce Bochy has long been considered a zenmaster in bullpen construction and the utilization of relief pitchers. His philosophy of identifying a definitive role for each pitcher and using the entire bullpen throughout the season have helped to reformat the modern bullpen.

Bochy's brilliant and unconventional use of starter Tim Lincecum in the Giants' 2012 postseason bullpen was a strategic breakthrough. All of which will be referenced in Bruce Bochy's potential Hall of Fame resume.

The history and emergence of the MLB bullpen is fascinating. What was up until the 1950s a jumble of extra pitchers with a variety of unspecified roles has only in the last ten or so years turned into a quantifiable set of specific positions.

Bill James discussed this in an essay in his "2009 Bill James Handbook". James noted the bullpen is the only component of the 25 man roster that does not officially have a position name for each player.

James offered simple and long overdue position designations for Major League bullpen pitchers:
1. Closer (CL)
2. Set-up Man (SU)
3. Lefty (LT)
4. Long Man (LM)
5. Utility Reliever (UR)
6. Emergency Reliever (ER).

Baseball-Reference.com also came up with a set of specific position designations for bullpen pitchers here. 

Often bullpens expand to seven players, and that usually means a second Utility Reliever. The "Lefty" position describes that lefty specialist every team needs to face the opposition's left-handed power hitter or pinch hitter from the bench late in a game.

A number of bullpens have  two or more left-handed relievers in their pen, but usually there's one guy who is the designated specialist. Javier Lopez is the Giants' lefty specialist, although Jeremy Affeldt has also been used in that role.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, Barry Bonds alone caused many National League teams to make a lefty specialist a permanent part of their bullpens.

The term "closer" was not in common use until the 1990s-- prior to that "stopper", "fireman", or "short reliever" were the expressions most often heard in describing that bullpen role.

When baseball's modern master Tony LaRussa managed the Oakland A's (1986-1995) he became the first manager to exclusively use his closer in the 9th inning. At the time it was controversial, today it is carved in stone.

In 1992, La Russa's closer Dennis Eckersley won both the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player Awards as a member of the Oakland A's.

Recognition of the concept of a "set-up man" came even later; the position became embedded when the 2002 New York Yankees signed Steve Karsay for $21 million over four years to set up closer Mariano Rivera.     

The "save" was made an official stat by Major League Baseball in 1969, although the term "save" had been in use by several innovative clubs since the early 1950s. Chicago baseball writer Jerome Holtzman formalized the rules for a save in 1959, and when it was adopted 10 years later it became the first new official MLB stat since the RBI was approved in 1920.

So what is the evolutionary trend in MLB bullpens right now? In the past five years, more and more relievers are being used for only one inning per outing-- and not just closers and set-up men. The number of times any reliever is being used for only one inning per game each season is increasing as the role for each relief pitcher becomes more clearly defined.  An article in Baseball Prospectus discussed this trend here.

There are no "throw away" spots in a winning team's 25 man roster-- and that especially applies to the bullpen. As the Giants prepare for the 2013 season their bullpen is almost set-- only one open spot needs to be filled before Opening Day.

Eight Spring Training candidates are fighting for that spot: veterans Chad Gaudin, Scott Proctor, Shane Loux and Jean Machi, hard throwing lefty Dan Runzler, Giant farm hand Steve Edlefsen, and former Giant Ramon Ramirez.

Also in the mix is one of the Giants' top rookie pitching prospects, Heath Hembree.

Whoever makes the cut will have a clear role in the Giants' bullpen and San Francisco's battle to play baseball in October once again.

NEWSPAPER HEADLINES FROM SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 2013 SPRING TRAINING



ANGEL VILLALONA ARRIVES IN SF GIANTS 2013 SPRING TRAINING CAMP
Hints that Brandon Belt Should “Find a New Position to Play—and Real Soon”

LEGENDARY CLUBHOUSE GUY MIKE MURPHY CRITICIZED BY GIANTS MANAGEMENT
Tons of Team’s Dirty Laundry Piles Up While “Murph” Has Imaginary Conversations With Ty Cobb

BRUCE BOCHY NOT COMFORTABLE WITH ROOKIE SON AT SCOTTSDALE SPRING FACILITY
“I See He’s Still Not Making His Bed Every Morning and Refuses to Eat His Greens at Dinner”, Hissed a Visibly Irritated Bochy

PABLO SANDOVAL ANNOUNCES NEW DIET TO GET IN SHAPE FOR 2013 SEASON
Will Now Eat Only Every Other Item Featured At Team Hotel’s “Unlimited Mega-Buffet Super Spread”

GIANTS COACH WILL CLARK ESCORTED OUT OF SCOTTSDALE BALL PARK BY SECURITY STAFF
High-Pitched Voice Annoyed Buster Posey, Attracted Wild Dogs From Nearby Desert

Spring Training for the San Francisco Giants is getting as predictable as Tommy Lasorda's favorite ethnic food. Or Alex Rodriguez ruining yet another very expensive lie-detector machine.

Really, what would Spring in Scottsdale, Arizona be without Willie Mays and Will Clark roaming the clubhouse and batting cages, casually dispensing wisdom and humor? And once again San Francisco's post-modern Spring in the desert routinely includes an excess of outstanding starting and bullpen arms and a minimum of drama over who will go north in late March.

There's great energy in San Francisco's 2013 Arizona clubhouse: Tim Lincecum's new commitment to excel in a starting role matches his new haircut; Buster Posey is the defending National League League MVP and one of baseball's most dynamic players; and the Giants are one World Series win away from legitimizing the word "dynasty".   

But there's another, painfully familiar, question following the Giants around the greater Phoenix metropolitan area: will San Francisco have enough offense in 2013 to support their outstanding pitching?

That pesky issue was also barking loud going into Spring Training 2012, and included the following sub-questions: a) will Buster Posey rebound from his 2011 injuries (indeed he did); b) can Brandon Belt step up and become a run producer at the plate (he's on the way); c) will Pablo Sandoval avoid injuries (no, but it all worked out); and, d) are there enough run producers in the line-up?

Answer: no, there were not enough run producers in the line-up in 2012. Until Angel Pagan fully took over the lead-off spot, Pablo got healthy again, and the Giants traded for Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence. But that was way back then.

As we enter Spring 2013, this season's "where's the offense?" focus is in left field, traditionally a power and run-crunching position for most MLB teams. Apparently Giants COO and President Larry Baer changed the combination on the team's underground vault at 3rd and King Streets before GM Brian Sabean could sneak out the final $12 million required to get a full-time left fielder.

As a result, the Giants' solution to the left field problem was to inexplicably re-sign the declining Andres Torres for $2 million to platoon with the light hitting Gregor Blanco. Sounds promising, no?

There were dramatically compelling reasons the Giants cut Torres loose after the 2011 season, a short year after winning the 2010 World Series. Let's dust off the record book and revisit Torres' 2011 season as a Giant:
> a .643 OPS in 112 games (lifetime .708 OPS);
> a .312 OBP and a .221 BA (lifetime .320 OBP, .241 BA);
> 95 SO in 348 AB

Torres' 2012 season with the Mets was equally disappointing:
> a .664 OPS in 132 games;
> a .327 OBP and a .230 BA;
> 90 SO in 374 AB.

The odd thing about the idea of platooning Torres and Blanco in left field is that both hit left-handed starters better than they do right-handers. In 2012 Blanco hit .261 and Torres hit .296 off of lefty starters, but when facing right-handed starters Blanco hit .237 and Torres hit .179. That defines the opposite of what you're looking for in a platoon scenario.

Defensively Torres has never been above average in any area except for his throwing arm, which is way below average. Blanco, however, does bring real speed and extraordinary timing in the outfield. His amazing catch in the 7th inning of Matt Cain's June 2012 perfect game is something no Giant fan will ever forget. I rank it in the top three defensive plays in Giants history.

While both Andres Torres and Gregor Blanco each contributed to San Francisco's 2010 and 2012 World Championships, the seemingly eternal ongoing offensive needs of the Giants need to be fixed. And a Blanco-Torres combo in left field doesn't remotely get that job done.

Giants broadcaster Mike Krukow has often made the following observation about the evolution of an MLB team each season: the Giants team that starts Spring Training will be different than the one that starts the season on Opening Day. The 25 man roster on Opening Day will be different than the team on the field come August 1st.

And don't be surprised if the post season roster looks different than the August 1st team.

It's the natural cycle of the game-- and of teams that evolve right along with the game. At some point this season San Francisco will have to make a mid-course correction in left field. Maybe via a trade or maybe when a young Giants' minor leaguer is called up and claims his spot in the big leagues.

But the question of more offense for the San Francisco Giants in 2013 will have to be answered, and right now the blinking neon arrow is pointing directly at left field.

The following is an interview conducted by Jeremy Dorn, an Editorial Intern at San Francisco Magazine and an experienced sports blogger with a number of great credits (and several disturbing ones).

Through no fault of his own, Jeremy was born in the Bay Area but was raised a Los Angeles Dodger fan. Perhaps it was due to an unhealthy mix of Cap'n Crunch cereal and that white paste they used in grade school as glue.

Read Jeremy Dorn's compelling sports blog Jam Shots, and be sure to consult an attorney before agreeing to talk with him either in person or on the phone.

The interview
With Spring Training firing up this week, some of the Super Bowl sting is beginning to fade in San Francisco. It's time to look forward to the Giants defending another World Series title—right? 

Not if you're San Francisco Magazine intern Jeremy Dorn, a lifelong Dodgers fan stuck in the heart of Giants country and trying to finagle his way to the ultimate baseball dream job in the MLB Fan Cave this season.

Richard Dyer is the writer/editor of the popular “The Giants Cove” blog, and according to the bio on the site, is "proven by severe medical probe testing to eat, breathe, and exude Giants baseball." 

So what happens when the two butt heads as Opening Day nears? Although they may actually not be butt-heads, we've got their conversation below:

Jeremy Dorn: Pardon my bluntness, Richard, but World Series championship aside, I don't think the Giants were the best team in the Major Leagues last year, let alone in the National League. So be completely realistic with me here—do the Giants get lucky down the stretch again and repeat in 2013?

Richard Dyer: First off, pal, they didn’t get lucky last year. Secondly, it's not a matter of luck because the Giants franchise has built a really solid team around pitching, defense, and just enough hitting to make the playoffs. In 2013 they will make the playoffs after winning the Division… again.
 
JD: At Giants Fan Fest last weekend, first baseman Brandon Belt said, "You can't buy chemistry," when asked about the Dodgers' free-spending ways. Needless to say, this ticked off the Dodger fan base, especially given the source of the smack talk. Belt's 16 career homers are cute and all, but isn't that the equivalent of Juan Uribe zinging the Giants? How do you feel about his comments?

RD: You know, those are the comments of a young player. But if the Dodgers are trying to buy team chemistry they really misspent their money. I think they were just trying to buy a bunch of good players and I’m not sure they quite succeeded. As for Brandon Belt, he will learn to keep those comments to himself and off twitter-- you don’t fire up your number one rival in the NL West.
 
JD: It's my belief—and I know I'm not alone here—that Giants vs. Dodgers is the greatest rivalry in sports history. Even greater than the Yankees vs. Red Sox.

But despite recent success, the Giants still only have a pair of World Series titles to their name since moving to California in 1958. The Dodgers, since moving to Los Angeles, have five. Why did it take so long for the Giants to win their first two, and how long will it take them to catch up with LA?

RD: I’ll keep this brief. I hate to use the word “dynasty,” but what if the Giants win the World Series again in 2013? Which team was the last to win three out of four World Series titles? The Yankees, I guess. The Giants just won 2 of the last 3 Series, and they aren't going anywhere.

Because of the commitment of this franchise, the Giants will be playoff contenders for at least several more years and beyond . Which means they will have a number of chances to go to the World Series and win again. San Francisco was not consistently a modern and well-run franchise until the Peter Magowan group bought the team in  1993.

They have a better chance now to make the Series, thanks to the current ownership group and management, than they've had in the entire history of their rivalry with the Dodgers on the West Coast. It won’t be easy because the best team in baseball doesn’t always win the World Series. Just look at the Dodgers, who will have the highest payroll in baseball to start the 2013 season at $213 million. And even that doesn't guarentee a trip to the playoffs next October.
 
JD: Yeah, let's look at them. The Dodgers signed Zack Greinke to bolster the rotation, and will have a full season with the four big-name bats in the middle of the lineup.

On a scale of one to ten, how do you rank the fear of the Dodgers as a threat to your Giants in 2013? One = As boring as a Matt Cain interview. Ten = As scary as a Hunter Pence pep talk in a dark alley.

RD: I would say this year is probably a seven. The Giants should be more concerned with the other teams in the National League that they will actually meet in the playoffs, like Washington, Atlanta, and St. Louis. Those are really the their main competitors in 2013.

San Francisco won 94 games last year and the Dodgers only won 86. I'm going with 95 wins for the Giants and I think the Dodgers are good for about 88 this year. Since they added $95 million to their 2012 payroll, that means LA will be paying $47.5 million each for their two extra wins this season.
 
JD: Despite the bad blood between these two franchises, the Dodgers and Giants seem to swap players quite often. We've had enough with Jason Schmidt, Jeff Kent, and Uribe coming our way in recent years.

But if Brian Sabean must continue plucking former Dodgers away to earn titles, so be it. If you are the GM for one day and absolutely must sign one player from the Dodgers not named Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, who do you take?

RD: I’d probably take either Adrian Gonzalez or Greinke. The Giants always seems to need more offense, which Gonzalez brings; and Greinke is just a quality pitcher. The problem with the Dodgers this year is after Kemp and Kershaw, the drop can be pretty steep. I mean, Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez? And I don't think Luis Cruz is the long-term solution at third base.

And they have Mark Ellis leading off? What is he? 48, 49 years old?

JD:  AT&T Park is a beautiful venue. But I once wandered into it, thinking it was a new waterfront mall. I'll take the bleachers there, with a Dodger Dog in my hand, any day. Defend your fancy ball park!

RD: I’m okay with the sushi and the $20 six-ounce Steam Beer because they're in the business of making money. With that money the Giants front office can get better players and improve their farm system.

This is America, Jeremy; I think it’s good that everybody can get what they want! I’ll take my beer and sushi, and I hope you enjoy those Farmer John Dogs from LA that feature the acceptable federal level of rat hairs in every bite.

JD: I've had multiple Giants fans tell me that legendary Dodgers voice Vin Scully is "boring," because he "only talks about the game." As I recover from the staggering ignorance, can you make a case for Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper over Scully?

RD: I love the Giants announcers-- Kruk and Kuip are wide-ranging at times but so smart and colorful. And Jon Miller and Dave Flemming may be the best in the game. But, I absolutely love listening to Vin Scully.

MLB.TV shows Dodgers games and I get to watch Vinnie spin his magic. I love the fact that Vin does the TV games alone-- no color guy. I love listening to him. You hear this spellbinding, ongoing narrative about the game that is amazing. I love Scully, he’s a treasure.
 
JD: All right, thanks for that. I have one more question for you. Even though we both know the Dodgers are the probable champs this year, what is your prediction for both teams?

RD: I think the competition for Wild Card spots may be just a little over the Dodgers’ heads. I don’t think they win the Wild Card or the Division-- I don’t think they make the playoffs. The Giants take the West!

In a funny way, I’m looking forward to the Dodgers improving in the coming years. The rivalry with San Francisco only works if both teams are good and playing well.

Have feedback for Jeremy? Email him at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , and follow him on Twitter @sanfranmag.

Talking about outstanding San Francisco Giants prospects is a lot like talking about what presents Santa Claus might bring you next Christmas. What it really comes down to is more a question of existence than potential gifts.

MLB.com recently released its annual list of the top 100 prospects in Major League Baseball and, not surprisingly, there were only two San Francisco Giant minor leaguers on the entire list.

It gets worse. San Francisco grabbed the #86 spot with pitcher Kyle Crick and the #100 spot with outfielder Gary Brown. Thank god it's not a top 85 list.

I have previously described the rusted out pick-up truck up on blocks sitting in the front yard that has been the San Francisco Giants minor league system. And how it got that way. I prefer to think of San Francisco's farm system now as in the process of being finely detailed, repainted, and about to be fitted with a new V-8 engine from the BMW Corporation.

That's because a major story is developing right now in the Giants farm system. It involves four very talented young power pitchers from the South (two from Texas, one from Mississippi, one from South Carolina) who could develop into the team's next pitching dynasty.   

So let's check out the San Francisco Giants starting staff and closer spot as they might look on Opening Day April 2016.  As I noted in the previous post this group of pitchers features young players drafted and developed by the Giants as part of their retooled minor league template.

There's no doubt reality will be quite different: over the next three years San Francisco will sign some number of free agent pitchers and will make some number of trades. Expect the Giants to also accelerate the development of certain minor league pitchers who are ready to move up. It's intriguing to think about, but it is unlikely these players will ever all be on the same staff together:

Opening Day 2016 - Pitchers

1. Matt Cain RHP
In April 2012 the Giants tore up Matt Cain's existing contract and signed him to a six year $127.5 million extension through 2017. As it stands Cain will be the Opening Day pitcher in 2016. In the Spring of 2017 the media and fans will start to seriously talk about whether San Francisco should re-sign Cain to a new contract.

The $21 million club option the Giants have on Cain in 2018 should be non-consequential-- by then that will be bargain basement money for a top MLB starter. Matt Cain's performance in 2016 will likely be a big determining factor in whether he stays with the Giants, gets traded, or is allowed to head to free agency.

Absent an injury, Cain's body type seems like the kind that can carry his stellar career well into his mid-thirties. And Matt Cain will be only be 31 years old on Opening Day 2016.

2. Chris Stratton RHP
San Francisco made Chris Stratton their #1 pick in the 2012 draft (#20 overall). Stratton is an outstanding pitching talent with great potential; in other words, he's the real deal. The Mississippi State star is developing a four pitch menu which includes a 95 MPH fastball to complement his slider, curve, and change-up.

With the Giants likely losing starters Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum after the 2013 season, Stratton may have the chance to be a major contributor as a member of the Giants' starting staff well before Opening Day 2016 comes around.

The Giants' organization is also hoping Stratton will be a distraction for their fans as former #1 draft pick Zack Wheeler becomes a dominant National League starter for the New York Mets in the next few years.

Wheeler, who throws a 98 MPH fastball and is rated #8 in MLB.com's top 100 prospects, was traded by San Francisco to the Mets in 2011 for Carlos Beltran. In April 2016 Chris Stratton will be 25 years old.

3. Madison Bumgarner LHP
Is there a more solid, talented #3 starter in the National League? No-- not now, and not in 2016. Bumgarner's 2012 season defines the depth of San Francisco's starting pitching: 191 SO and 49 BB in 208.1 IP; a 1.114 WHIP and 16 wins. He's fearless, tough, and wants to win.

Madison Bumgarner could easily be #2 behind Cain and would be the ace on any number of MLB teams. The beautiful thing about Bumgarner is his incredible level of experience-- became a starter for the Giants 2010 at the age of 20 and has been on two World Series Championship teams and won 3 Series games. All by the age of 23. Bumgarner will be 26 on Opening Day 2016.

4. Kyle Crick RHP
In the past year Crick passed up Gary Brown on just about every legitimate Giants' top ten prospects list in North America. Crick is a strapping 6' 4" former Texas high school player with a power fastball and a slider that could develop into a deadly out pitch.

The Giants picked Kyle Crick second in the 2011 draft (after Joe Panik), and #49 overall in the draft. That pick was a gift from the Dodgers as compensation for signing former Giants Juan Uribe as a free agent in 2011. Crick put up some breakout numbers in Single A Augusta last season, including a 128 SO and 75 hits allowed in 111.1 IP.

Much like Chris Stratton, if Crick continues to develop quickly he could get a chance to make the team before the 2016 season. But absent a setback, expect to see the big Texan during introductions at AT&T Park on Opening Day 2016. On that day Crick will be 23 years old.

5. Clayton Blackburn RHP
Blackburn joins Crick and Stratton as the Giants' three Southern power starters currently tearing up the minor leagues. From Amarillo, Texas, Blackburn has a wicked 95 MPH fastball that sinks at the plate and effectively smothers power hitters-- he only allowed 3 home runs in 22 starts last season. Blackburn is also working on the usual complementary pitches to round out his resume.

Joining teammate Crick in Single A Augusta in 2012, Blackburn put up some stunning numbers: 8-4, 131.1 IP, 143 SO, and only 18 walks! The 1.020 WHIP says it all. Clayton Blackburn is giving notice that he could become a dominant National League starter in a few years. He's only 20 this year and will be all of 23 in April 2016.

Heath Hembree RHP - Closer
He's been part of the Giants organization since he was drafted in 2010 (5th round) along with Gary Brown. Hembree has 56 saves in three minor league seasons, and was sailing along until he joined Triple A Fresno last season and put up a 4.74 ERA and 20 walks in 38 IP. An elbow injury last season hobbled Hembree, but the 24 year old power pitcher's time to crack the San Francisco bullpen should be at hand in 2013.

It will take time for Giants fans to adjust to the fact that Sergio Romo is not only San Francisco's closer, he's rated as one of the top closers in the game right now. Romo doesn't have that dominating fastball fans have come to expect in a closer, but his 2012 line was simply extraordinary: 55.1 IP, 0.849 WHIP, 63 SO, 10 BB, 37 hits, 1.79 ERA, 14 saves. And he only became the closer in August.

Romo also had 4 saves and a win in the 2012 postseason, including 3 saves in the World Series sweep against Detroit. In the entire postseason he gave up 1 run, 4 hits and 1 BB in 10.2 IP with 9 SO and a 0.469 WHIP. Hello.   

Hembree could be worked into the bullpen easily over the next two years and end up being that power closer big league clubs and fans traditionally look for; but if he's going to be San Francisco's Opening Day 2016 closer Heath Hembree's 2013 season will be a critical test.

The Giants Cove is about to officially open the 2013 season with a series of posts about the National League, the Giants' strengths and weaknesses, and the possibilities for a San Francisco return to the 2013 postseason.

Giants Cove researchers, scouts, and experts (who work out of a secluded complex not far from the CIA building in Langley, Virginia) are predicting a rocking MLB year all around. Their advice: load up with Cheetos and other basic survival supplies, upgrade to a liquid crystal surround-sound 80" 3D television, and prepare for seven months of baseball ecstasy.  

But first a word from our future sponsors: the Giants' starting line-up on Opening Day 2016 at AT&T Park

It has only been four years or so since the San Francisco Giants really began to straighten out their fractured minor league system. A decade of neglect and trading away the few promising draft picks they accidently stumbled on led to a minor league organization in permanent decline.

The main strategy was to draft pitchers in the assumption that they made the best trade bait-- every team always wants pitchers, right? The plan was to then pick up cheap, slightly over the hill veterans, find a couple of under valued positions players, and hope to slap it all together around Barry Bonds each year.

Given that Bonds is one of the top players in the history of the game, that's not the worst course of action. No, the worst course of action was not being able to multi-task by conducting an effective draft each year and insuring the ongoing development of home-grown position players.

But that's all in the distant past (and the more distant, the happier the Giants front office will be). Give CEO and Team President Larry Baer and GM Brian Sabean credit for taking stock, identifying the problems, and doing what was needed to turn this massive supertanker around.

San Francisco's minor league system is still rated in the bottom third of all MLB organizations but they won't be there for long.

Which brings us to Opening Day 2016. This is an artificial line-up featuring players drafted and developed by the Giants from their new era minor league template. Reality will be quite different from this group of prospects: over the next three years San Francisco will sign some number of free agent position players, they will make trades, and they will accelerate the development of certain minor league players ready to move up.

The following position players are high profile prospects (and several current stars) well-known among Giants devotees. It's intriguing to think about their potential but it is unlikely these players will ever all be on the same field together:

Opening Day 2016 - Batting Line-up

1. Gary Brown CF
It seems that Gary Brown has lost a little momentum since he started in the Arizona Rookie League and Salem-Keizer in 2010. A+ ball at San Jose in 2011 brought an eye-catching .925 OPS in 638 plate appearances (PA), but Brown hit a bump at Double A Richmond last season with a .731 OPS in 610 PA. Not uncommon when you move up the MLB food chain.

Gary Brown is still a high end prospect. For Brown the glove and speed are there, so this is all about handling the bat. Oddly, he was hit by pitches 42 times over the last 2 seasons.
 
2. Joe Panik 2B
Panik played shortstop in 191 of his 199 games in 2010-11 at Salem-Keizer and San Jose. I still think he'll move to 2B sooner or later. Panik has a nice .803 OPS in two years, and more walks (58) than strikeouts (54) last year at A+ San Jose. 2013 will be a pivotal development year for Panik who needs to break out and show what a hitting machine he can be.   

3. Pablo Sandoval 1B
Hard to imagine that Sandoval will remain at third base in the long term. The weight issue looks more and more like a Prince Fielder deal. Figure Pablo Sandoval to increase his power numbers as he gets older, which might move him to 4th or 5th in the 2016 batting order.

4. Buster Posey C
For all those holding their breath since 2010 in anticipation of Posey moving to 2B or 1B, please exhale now. Not only will Posey be the starting catcher for the next 8 years, the Giants will have more and more options each season to rest him.

As MLB inter-league games increase and expand, sooner or later the National League will adopt the DH for inter-league home games as well as away games in American League parks. Whether that will be the slippery slope that leads the NL to fully adopt the DH is a question for another time.

The important point here is that the expansion of inter-league games gives San Francisco increased opportunities to play Posey at DH and rest his body.

And the result could be a restructuring of the NL's traditional 25-man roster. Any NL team whose starting catcher is key to their offense, like Buster Posey or Brian McCann of the Braves, will want to DH their starting catcher whenever they can. In order to do that, those teams will now need a second high end catcher on the 25 man roster because that "back-up" catcher, who filled in once or twice a week in the past, will now see significantly more at bats throughout the season.  

5. Johnathan "Mac" Williamson RF
My under the radar pick is Mac Williamson, one of the most promising power hitters in the Giants farm system. Sure, he's 22 and has a very long way to go in his development but that .596 slugging percentage in 29 games last season at Salem-Keizer is tantalizing. And I get it-- that's a ridiculously small sample, but the fact that the Red Sox drafted Williamson in 2011 (he decided to stay in school) speaks volumes about his potential.

6. Brandon Belt / Francisco Peguero LF
Francisco Peguero's window to make his move up the chain is beginning to narrow. He is 24 this year and has been affiliated with the Giants organization since he was 18. In 105 games with the 2012 Fresno Grizzlies he put up a .691 OPS, then was brought up to San Francisco  where he only got 16 at-bats and did not impress. Peguero brings real speed on the bases and a very good glove.

Belt is also 24 and has two partial seasons with the Giants, including the 2012 World Series. His total at bats in 2011-12 (598) roughly constitute a starter's full season. His 3.5 WAR is starting quality+ and his XBH (56 in 598 AB) compare well with players like Andre Ethier (57 XBH in 556 AB), Marco Scutaro (43 XBH in 620 AB) and Hunter Pence (54 XBH in 617 AB).

Brandon Belt should be a starter in the Giants line-up in 2013 and well past the 2016 season. 

7. Chris Dominguez 3B
Dominguez at third is all about power and run production potential. There are two problems here: first, Chris Dominguez is already 26 years old (29 in 2016) and it could be that this ship has sailed.

Add to that, after four minor league seasons his power and run production have been going down year after year.  In 92 games at Double A Richmond and Triple A Fresno last year, his OPS was .590. His 97 strikeouts project to 167 SO in 625 at bats.

Dominguez is one of the long shots in this line-up. Unless he steps up quickly and unless Sandoval's conditioning goes way south (and east, and west, and north) the Giants will stick with Pablo long term at third base.

8. Brandon Crawford SS
In assessing Crawford, it's a little like Brandon Belt-- whatever you say about his 209 total Major League games, and 631 AB over the 2011-12 seasons, Brandon Crawford was the starting shortstop for the 2012 World Champion Giants.

Brandon Crawford has shown progress in his time at the Major League level, and he has yet to reach his full potential. Crawford's two year .632 OPS is not acceptable, but it has gone up each year (.584 in 2011, .653 2012), as has his BA (.204 in 2011, .248 in 2012).

We know Crawford may be one of the two or three best defensive shortstops in the game, but he can also hit. How much production he needs to create at the plate in order to justify that outstanding defense will always be the question here. I argue that a team built around pitching in maybe the best pitchers' ballpark in the Majors needs the best defense it can get to fully succeed.

Here's what we can expect from Brandon Crawford between 2013 and 2016: gold glove defense, a range factor that Giants starters and relievers will celebrate, and timely hitting with surprising power-- he whacked 43 XBH in those 631 at bats.

Twenty-three year old prospect Ehire Adrianza brings a great glove but just looks like he won't be productive enough at the plate to break through.

Next: Opening Day 2016 - Starting Staff and Closer

All at once the San Francisco Giants front office took care of two critical player arbitration signings in preparation for the 2013 season opener.

San Francisco announced today they have avoided arbitration with MVP catcher Buster Posey and right fielder Hunter Pence.

Posey signed a one year $8 million contract for 2013, leaving the status of his three remaining years of arbitration and team control to be determined. It is obvious the Giants should be thinking seriously about signing Posey to a long-term deal along the lines that Tampa Bay recently worked out with Evan Longoria or the Mets completed with David Wright.

An excellent overview of a Buster Posey extension was done here by Steve Adams of MLB TradeRumors. The essential question is how many of Posey's free agent years beyond 2016 do the Giants want to purchase?

Even a six year deal would easily pass the $100 million point, but that shouldn't be a problem for a big market top 10 payroll team like the Giants. The smart play here would be to lock up Posey for 6-8 years before Brian Sabean finds himself paying for a series of year-to-year arbitration settlements, and then have to deal with Posey's impending free agency at 2016 prices.

The other big move this week was the team's arbitration settlement with Hunter Pence.

Pence signed a one year $13.8 million deal to remain San Francisco's starting right fielder. Pence will become a free agent at the end of the season and speculation about a deal extension obviously depends on what Pence does the first half of this season as well as the ongoing development of several potentially outstanding Giant outfield prospects.

The big name left on the arbitration tote board is Sergio Romo who made $1.575 million last season and is looking at free agency in 2015.

Romo is an excellent candidate for a multi-year extension that would eat up his last two arbitration years and maybe two free agent years. Even though the Giants' payroll may be nearing its 2013 ceiling, locking up key players for a period of years now will create significant cost savings in payrolls for years to come.

Joaquin Arias, Clay Hensley and Gregor Blanco are also standing in the arbitration line but there's little doubt the San Francisco front office will work out contract deals with all three before they come close to sitting down in front of an arbitrator.

Of course the signing (or not) of closer Brian Wilson will end up being the biggest story between now and Spring Training. I can't wait to see him standing next to Mr. Met in that parking lot centerpiece known as Citi Field.

"Welcome back to GiantsTalk on KOMG, the Bay Area's All Sports Leader-- we know sports so you don't have to.

"I'm your host Denny Stone and we talk San Francisco Giants 8 hours a night every Monday through Friday from 7:30PM to 3:30AM in the morning on sports talk KOMG.

"Let's take our first call this evening, and it's Norm from Hayward-- go ahead Norm."

"Denny... ."

"This is Denny Stone, go ahead Norm... ".

"Denny! This is Norm."

"Hey Norm, whatcha got for us?"

"Denny!"

"Go Norm, you got the bridge buddy, where you takin' us?"

"Denny! It's Norm from Hayward."

"What's up Normy, do you want to weigh in on that Bonds and Hall of Fame voting thing...?"

"Denny!"

"All right Norm I'm gonna have to take another call here, whatta ya got for our listeners... ."

"Hey Denny I live in Hayward and I am the greatest San Francisco Giants fan ever. My dad took me to the first game at Seals Stadium when the Giants came out from New York. I got an autographed bat from Willie Mays, I was at the Stick before any of these new fans were even born... ."

"Fantastic, Norm. How do you think the Giants are looking for the 2013 season buddy?"

"All these other so-called fans are so full of it. I was at Opening Day when Candlestick Park first opened and I have a complete collection of... ."

"Sounds great Norm. What about these 2013 Giants-- can they take the World Series again?"

" ...Denny!"

"OK, let's move on to our next caller. Hey there, you are on GiantsTalk on the big KOMG, let's hear from Ed over in Albany. Ed, what's on your mind?"

"Hey Denny, Ed from Albany. Hey, how are ya?"

"I'm fine Ed. Now what's on your mind tonight?"

"I attended every Giants home game since 1976, when I was 8 years old. There isn't anyone who's a better Giants fan than me. All these guys who jumped on board when we went to the World Series, they don't know crap...  they all suck. Am I right? Denny, they're all posers not real fans like me."

"You have been there and done that Ed my man. Now what the heck's going on with that Hall of Fame vote and Mr. Bonds?"

"Denny, let me tell you a few things about the San Francisco Giants. That team when they had J.T. Snow and Will Clark, that was the best. I think they were on the team together like for one season but that was the best. My family and I were out there every night unlike these other so-called fans-- I saw it all."

"Thanks Ed, good stuff, good stuff. You know it's great to see the fans pass this great passion for the game and for the Giants down to their kids over the years, it's just wonderful."

"Hey, we got Tom on line 3 out of San Francisco. You're on Denny Stone's GiantsTalk, what's goin on big Tom... ."

"Hey Norm, I mean Denny. How are you?"

"I'm fine Tom."

"OK, so these callers all talk about being great Giants fans but you know what... ? Denny, you know what... ?"

"What's that Tom."

"I know I'm the greatest Giants fan in the world and I can prove it. I got this T-shirt with big letters across the front that says 'World's Greatest Giants Fan'. So I have the actual proof Denny, although I think my cousin might have got this shirt in New Jersey last NFL season. I was going to games way before the Giants got good and we used to... ."

"Thank you big Ed from Albany. I love it when Ed calls in, you just never know what he's going to say."

"Let's take one more call here before I play my two hour interview with Ralph Thompson who's the great uncle of former Giant's batboy Rusty Simmons. Ralph and I talked a lot of baseball and I think you'll get a big kick out of our conversation."

"Hey this is Denny Stone and you're on KOMG GiantsTalk."

"Denny ...!"

"Hello again Norm. Let's go to... how about  we go to Bob from Pacifica. Bob's upset by a trade."

"Hi Denny how are you?"

"I'm fine Bob, what's on your mind tonight?"

"I can't believe how incompetent Brian Sabean is. He is the worst GM in the history of baseball, Denny. He overpays for Barry Zito, what, a couple hundred million, then he trades away the one guy who would have definitely been a big home run guy for us. John Bowker. Those idiots in the Giants front office let John Bowker go for nothing."

"That was in 2010 Bob. And the Giants got Javier Lopez for Bowker. Lopez helped them win two World Series. Why did you like Bowker so much?"

"Cause he could really hit the ball, Denny. I mean boom! that guy had real power and he was a great hitter. I still can't believe the Giants let him go. It's absolutely crazy."

"Well you know Bob, Bowker hit in the .230s, had a terrible on-base percentage, and really didn't hit for much power."

"But Denny, when Bowker hit the ball it was like boom! You know? Boom!"

"And Bob, I believe Bowker's almost out of baseball because there wasn't much interest by any other teams to go after him... ."

"Boom!, Denny, boom!"

"Thank you Bob. Bob's a long-time caller who always brings a lot to the table when we are talking World Champion GiantsTalk on KOMG."

"What, one more call before the break? OK how about Andy down in Palo Alto. What's going on Andy... ."

"How are you tonight Denny?"

"I'm fine Andy what's on your mind?"

"Hey Denny I am the true world's #1 Giants fan ever, but first I got a trade we need to make before Spring Training 2013. And could you call Brian Sabean for me and tell him about this trade so we could get it done. What about sending a package of Joaquin Arias, George Kantos, and Brett Pill to the Yanks for Robinson Cano. I think they'd go for it."

"Andy, why would the Yankees trade Robinson Cano to the Giants for those players. It just doesn't make any sense."

"Yes it does, it does Denny! See the Yankees need a power hitting first baseman and Brett Pill is that guy; and they can replace Cano with Arias and then Kantos is just an extra throw-in."

"All due respect Andy, I'm not seein' New York pull the trigger on that trade. Even if glaciers sink below the ground and land in hell. Have you got anything else for us Andy?"

"Boom, Denny!  Boom... ."

Baseball Hall of Fame voters just made one of the most absurd decisions in the history of Hall eligibility today, and one that will be seen as petty and outrageous years from now: one of the top 10 players in the history of Major League Baseball was just denied placement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

In his first year of eligibility former Giants' slugger Barry Bonds was refused acceptance in the hallowed and sacred halls of Cooperstown because the baseball writers who decide who gets in and who is left out felt that a little vigilante justice was in order.

Because, although Bonds was never proven to take performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) we all know he's as guilty as hell and if the law won't bring him to justice, why we'll just round up some of the boys and get the job done ourselves.

How insufferably righteous of the baseball writers who decided to leave Bonds off their 2013 ballots-- he received only 36.2% of the votes cast. They believe that Barry just doesn't have the necessities to be included in a shrine to the great game that currently includes any number of drug abusers, cheaters, racists, serial alcoholics, felons, and world class assholes.

Sorry Mr. Bonds, you don't make the cut to be with those guys. But you be sure and try next year and we might consider you. You know, after you've served your "wrist-slapping" sentence for using PEDs and not getting caught.

So the Baseball establishment has decided the Hall of Fame is not merely a grand museum celebrating the great achievements of those who played the game at the highest level. Now this exhibition hall of plaques, bats, gloves, baseballs, and various other inanimate objects is going to be used as a moral litmus test, a sonogram of righteousness to determine if eligible players were also good people who played the game fair.

Maybe the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown should take the next logical step in this thought process.

Visitors seeking admission to the Hall should first be background checked for any negative personal history, followed by drug, alcohol, and PED testing before being allowed through those hallowed doors.

And if anyone we deem unfit tries to enter our sacred MLB house of worship? We'll take care of that... get a rope.

It's True: Major League Baseball Has Been Revolutionized Under Selig's Tenure
Say what you want about the highs and lows of Bud Selig's 20 year tenure as the 9th Commissioner of Major League Baseball, but be sure to include the following:

    > he took an economically moribund professional sport and generated a series of monster revenue
       engines that have created financial empires for virtually every MLB team owner;
    > he instituted Wild Card and Divisional play and helped create the World Baseball Classic;
    > he merged the National and American Leagues under the Commissioner's Office and created
       revenue sharing among franchises.  

There have also been missteps, blunders, and negative outcomes during his tenure-- like his slow response to the use of performance enhancing drugs by players in the 1990s and 2000s. But stuff is bound to happen in any 20 year reign.

Commissioner Bud Selig has two more seasons left on his contract before he retires after the 2014 baseball season. Having enhanced the economic side of the game, Selig has just enough time to add a real field of dreams to his professional resume: a new stadium for the Oakland Athletic's in the city of Oakland.

Bud Selig and the Chamber of Secrets Relocation Committee
When Lew Wolff's group purchased the A's in 2005, Wolff became Managing Partner. From the start, Wolff's primary business goal was to move the team to a more economically viable location. A bigger market = higher TV revenues, a new stadium = higher attendance and luxury boxes.

Lew Wolff wanted to move the team from Oakland to...  well, just about anywhere else.

At one point Wolff tried to use his superpowers and somehow will the team to move to the city of Fremont, of all places. He actually proposed a $1.8 billion complex, had the plans drawn up and spent $24 million before discovering Fremont didn't want the A's.

Turns out one of Wolff's superpowers is to piss people off, and he's really good at it. 

Other relocation possibilities have been tossed around in recent years, including Las Vegas and Sacramento. Even New York City was suggested as the most economically logical destination for the wayward A's. Ultimately the city of San Jose became Wolff's primary move-to target. 

But Lew Wolff ran into two brick walls: the San Francisco Giants and Bud Selig.

The area around San Jose is surrounded by San Francisco Giant fortifications, entrenchments and land mines since the Giants consider the South Bay Area as part of their territorial empire.

To solve the problem, Bud Selig assigned his personal Justice League to study the problem and come up with a solution. They held their first meeting in an underground bunker about five years ago. The process has gone on so long a number of the committee members have either passed away or left for more promising positions in the aluminum siding industry.

So here's the deal: the Oakland A's will not be moving to San Jose. Or any place else. So take that one off the big tote board and toss it in the trash.

Over 25 years ago Major League Baseball (in a move that will never happen again) granted the Giants in writing "territorial rights" from San Francisco down through San Jose. And there is no amount of money the Oakland A's can come up with that could possibly compensate the Giants for the permanent loss of the San Jose, Santa Clara, and Silicon Valley markets.

But there's hope. This hope comes despite the fact that Oakland's city government is about as competent as North Korea's rocket program.

The Solution to the Oakland A's Stadium Issue Will Take Commitment and Vision

A's owner Lew Wolff is an accomplished businessman and actually a really good guy. He has worked hard to improve things for the team and for A's fans. But if there is no commitment to stay in Oakland, it might just be time to sell to new owners and move on.

Either way, the city of Oakland and Major League Baseball should partner up with A's ownership and build a baseball-only stadium at the north end of Jack London Square in the Howard tract area. Right next to the water.

A Jack London Square stadium will create the same economic super-jolt that rocked the empty, desolate landscape of the Mission Bay neighborhood when AT&T Park was built in San Francisco 14 years ago.

There is already a healthy business and residential footprint in the Square-- a baseball-only stadium would pop the fiscal cork in ways that Oakland cannot imagine.  

BART would construct a new Jack London Station at 4th Street and MLK Way. Freeway access, rail and ferry service are already in place. Initial tax revenue generated by the resulting business and residential boom would jumpstart a rejuvenated city of Oakland. The subsequent long-term ongoing public and private revenue streams will absolutely change the city forever.

Bud Selig's Dream
Bud Selig knows all about the emotional and spiritual yearning to keep your home team at home.

When he was a minority owner in the Milwaukee Braves in the 1960s, he fought hard to prevent the Braves from moving away. But move they did to Atlanta in 1966 simply to get more television revenue from a bigger market.

Heartbroken, Selig was determined to keep baseball alive in Milwaukee. He made that happen in 1970 when he purchased the bankrupt Seattle Pilots and brought them to Milwaukee as the Brewers.

Commissioner Selig should direct his blue ribbon committee to shift its focus and immediately work with ownership and the city of Oakland to keep the A's in Oakland and build a dynamic downtown baseball stadium.

Bud Selig's legacy would then have a beautiful, field-of-dreams coda and the Oakland A's would finally have a venue that matches their remarkable and stellar 112 year MLB history-- 45 years of that in the city of Oakland.