The Giants Cove - A San Francisco Giants blog
I had a chance to talk with Butch Stearns of TPN's Sport Buzz this morning, going live at 7:30AM from Canton, Massachusetts just outside Boston. We talked a lot of Giants baseball.Check out my interview with Butch.
We discussed the unprecedented number of player injuries the team has suffered, the Arizona Diamondbacks' losing streak, the race for the NL West flag, Orlando Cabrera not getting it done at the plate or in the field, and rookie Brandon Belt among other subjects. Butch referenced Pablo Sandoval's April 30th broken wrist bone injury that put him on the DL for 40 games, and we concluded with a discussion of Tim Lincecum's role as a team leader.
Look for Sports Buzz, the most comprehensive live streaming sports programing on the net.
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The number one myth about the 2011 Giants is that last year, when they won the World Series, a number of hitters had "career years". So what we're seeing in 2011 are those position players reverting back to their usual poor performing selves after playing beyond themselves in 2010.
Certainly Buster Posey is having a worse year, run production-wise, and so is Juan Uribe. Tough for Posey to put the numbers up with him out for the season and all; and Juan Uribe joined in an unholy alliance with the Los Angeles Dodger "organization" at the end of last year. So his dramatic 2011 fall-off goes on the Dodger stat sheets.
Of the hitters who remained with San Francisco after the Championship year only one, center fielder/lead-off man Andres Torres, had a "career" year in 2010. And even that is misleading: 2010 was the first time in his career Torres ever played 100+ games (actually 139 games), so there is no real track record to compare.
Check out the numbers on these current Giant hitters who played throughout 2010. Pablo Sandoval had his worst offensive year in 2010; Aubrey Huff did in 2010 what he was brought in to do, which was to knock in about 85 RBI; Cody Ross' 2010 numbers were down compared to his 2009 and 2008 seasons; Aaron Rowand looks like he will never match the numbers he put up in 2008, his first year as a Giant:
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011* | |
| Aubrey Huff AVG RBI OPS |
. 304 108 .912 |
.241 85 .694 |
.290 86 .891 |
.248 54 .690 |
| Cody Ross AVG RBI OPS |
.260 73 .804 |
.270 90 .790 |
.269 65 .735** |
.235 41 .701 |
| Aaron Rowand AVG RBI OPS |
.271 70 .749 |
.261 64 .738 |
.230 34 .659 |
.238 21 .634 |
| Pablo Sandoval AVG RBI OPS |
.345 24 .847*** |
.330 90 .943 |
.268 63 .732 |
.310 50 .877 |
With the exception of Sandoval, the problem with the 2011 San Francisco Giants offense is that multiple hitters are having an off year at the plate compared to what they did in 2010 and prior seasons. The 2010 Championship year didn't happen because Giant hitters had "career years", it happened because the hitters delivered numbers matching or coming close to their career numbers.
* @ 128 games ** 120 games w/Florida, 33 games w/Giants *** rookie year-- 41 games
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That case of 1998 Shafer Hillside Select Cabernet the Giants ownership sent to the guy who set up the 2011 MLB schedule last January was totally worth it. The Giants will play the final 37 games this way:
>31 games against sub-.500 teams, 6 against the D'Backs who they need to meet and beat.
> 7 games against a sub-.400 team (Houston).
> 21 games at AT&T Park, 16 on the road.
Here are the overall records of the teams the Giants will play and their records against the Giants:
| Team | Remaining games vs. Giants |
2011 record | 2011 record vs. SF Giants |
| San Diego Padres | 8 | 56-70 .444 | 4-6 |
| Houston Astros | 7 | 40-84 .323 | 0-0 |
| Colorado Rockies | 7 | 58-67 .464 | 4-7 |
| LA Dodgers | 6 | 56-67 .455 | 5-7 |
| Arizona D'Backs | 6 | 69-55 .556 | 4-8 |
| Chicago Cubs | 3 | 54-70 .435 | 3-3 |
| Total | 37 | 333-413 .446 | 20-31 .392 |
On paper, as the ancient saw goes, the Giants project out to 22-15 to close the season, finishing at 89-73. Arizona would have to close their season at 21-17 to win 90 games-- exactly the pace they've play so far this year.
But not so fast. Arizona also has a decent schedule to finish up the 2011 season. Of their 38 remaining games, 29 are with sub-.500 teams. And the Snakes have 10 games with the San Diego Padres, who will have a huge say in who ultimately wins the NL West. The Pads face San Francisco and Arizona 18 times between now and October.
So what we have here is the very definition of an cutting edge division race to close the regular season. And everyone knows that scissors always beats paper.
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But nothing I have seen in my baseball lifetime matches the relentless waves of player injuries experienced by the San Francisco Giants in 2011. As bad as it's been this year, on August 16, 2011 it just careened off a cliff and into the world of the surreal.
Scary "Twlight Zone" icon Rod Serling may have said it best: "Consider if you will a team perennially at the bottom of Major League Baseball's run production list for much of the past two years. Then take a journey with that same team into a fourth dimension where their very best hitters go down one after another like chess pieces on an out of control carousel."Of the three best hitters in the Giants' line-up two have been lost with season ending injuries: Buster Posey on May 26th and Freddy Sanchez on June 25th. San Francisco's other top hitter, Pablo Sandoval, hit the 15 day DL on May 1st and just yesterday hit a ball off his foot that will move him off 3rd base to 1st base. For now.
The team boldly attempted to kick-start its anemic offense at mid-season by accquiring the Mets' Carlos Beltran and the Astros' Jeff Keppinger. But Beltran strained his wrist a week ago and hasn't played since-- today he went on the 15 day DL. Jeff Keppinger just had an MRI on his right wrist after a collision at 1st base yesterday and it appears that Keppinger will not join Beltran on the DL.
And the rest of the injury list?
1. NLCS MVP Cody Ross and center fielder/lead-off hitter Andres Torres started the season on the disabled list after Spring Training injuries.
2. Closer Brian Wilson started the season on the 15 day DL.
3. Reliever Santiago Casilla hit the DL on April 16th.
4. Mark DeRosa April 29th and also on May 15th.
5. Pablo Sandoval May 1st.
6. Rookie slugger Brandon Belt fractured his wrist and went out June 5th.
7. Starter Jonathan Sanchez's leg problems put him out for 15 days on June 25th.
8. Slugger Pat Burrell's foot strain put him on the DL on July 15th
9. Andres Torres hit the DL for the second time this year on August 13th.
10. Outfielder Aaron Rowand strained his intercostal muscle in yesterday's game and is day-to-day.
11. Set-up man Sergio Romo was put on the 15 day DL on August 16th with inflammation in his right elbow.
12. Nate Schierholtz had x-rays on his right foot from a foul ball in yesterday's game (results negative).
For a team struggling to score runs the injuries to Giant hitters have been devastating. At this point it will be fascinating to see how management can forge an effective offense in the battle to take the National League West.
The August 16, 2011 game with the Atlanta Braves
In order for the Giants to field the required number of players for tonight's game at Atlanta, some creative assignments had to be made:
> started Miguel Tejada who was about rehab in a minor league game after coming off his own stint on the 15 day DL;
> started Aubrey Huff in left field for just the second time this year;
> started Brandon Belt in right field for the first time this year
> started Pablo Sandoval at 1st base for just the fifth time this year.
To top it off, starter Jonathan Sanchez had to leave the Braves game in the bottom of the third inning after rolling over on his left ankle making a play to first base. He apparently has a bad ankle strain.
Folllow up notes:
-- Jonathan Sanchez did miss his next start on Sunday 8/21/11 and was replaced by lefty Dan Runzler. Runzler is also scheduled to pitch in Sanchez's next start on Saturday August 27th.
-- Closer Brian Wilson went on the 15 day DL on Sunday August 21st with a tender elbow.
Welcome to the 2011 San Francisco Giants' clubhouse and row after row of empty hurt lockers.
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Give the Giants front office credit for not totally giving up on Brandon Belt this year. Especially since Brian Sabean was fighting against two very difficult factors in deciding whether to bring Belt back up: 1) Belt's initial difficulties at the plate earlier this year; and, 2) the General Manager's stubborn propensity to rely on veteran players in times of stress (i.e., anytime between April and October of each year).This weekend Andres Torres hit the 15 day DL with a "shin bruise" and somewhere up in heaven and down in hell, respectively, Lou Gehrig and Ty Cobb were spinning like wind turbines on Mount Whitney. Nevertheless, the Giants immediately brought Brandon Belt up from Fresno and he homered twice in his first game back, against the Florida Marlins.
After a dismal month of losing mostly low scoring games, Belt and starter Ryan Vogelsong (10-2, 1.25WHIP) made sure the current road trip started well, taking two of three at Florida. In Sunday's game 3 the Giants hit four home runs (Belt 2, Cody Ross 1, Nate Schierholtz 1) for the first time since their June 2, 2011 game with St. Louis (in which Aubrey Huff alone contributed three long balls).
Brandon Belt's roller coaster 2011 rookie season could have disoriented a less focused player. He made the team out of Spring Training then got sent to Fresno after hitting .192 in 17 games. Brought back up on May 26th after Buster Posey's season-ending injury, Belt's left wrist was fractured on June 4th. After recovering, he was brought back up to the big team on July 19th when Jeff Keppinger was picked up from the Houston Astros, but was hardly played. And Belt was finally sent down yet again after the Giants added shortstop Orlando Cabrera.
Now Brandon Belt is back up to stay with the Giants and he will be a critical factor in the upcoming seven week campaign to retake the National League West title. Just why Belt was sitting on the bench or in Triple-A while the Giants were butt-booted out of first place and their run production continued to imitate the stock market is a question that may haunt everyone at the end of the 2011 season.
This has the look of a critical tippng point in San Francisco's post-Championship year as the Giants front office mostly stood frozen in the headlights of the Arizona Diamondback express as it rolled over them.
The team's approach was at times indecisive. Afraid not to play the fading Andres Torres (.228/78 SOs/3 HR), playing Carlos Beltran too much at the beginning hoping he would catch fire, weakening the infield defense behind their starting pitchers by trading for Orlando Cabrera (hitting .226 with a .236 OBP as a Giant) and sending defensive phenom Brandon Crawford down, not having a credible plan C in place as Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito didn't get it done as the 5th starter.
Luckily in baseball seven weeks is an eternity. It may not quite feel like an eternity, but actually it is.
With Barry Zito injured again and likely done for the season this is truly Jonathan Sanchez's time to step up and take his place in the starting rotation. If Sanchez blows his third consecutive start the team has to consider grabbing lefty power pitcher Dan Runzler from Triple-A Fresno or pulling up another minor leaguer like Double-A Richmond starter Eric Surkamp (8-4/2.03ERA/1.11WHIP, 156 SOs in 128.1 IP).
Are there any more "ifs" in this scenario? Indeed there are. If Carlos Beltran's does not go on the 15 day DL with his sprained wrist, if the Giants play Brandon Belt every day, and if Cody Ross can do a better job at lead-off than Andres Torres-- then the run production should bump up and the pressure eases on the starters.
In the sage words of Steve McQueen from "The Magnificent Seven"-- "If, brother... if."
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The numbers tell the tale of a baseball team, the month of August, and a domesticated pet that often chases frisbees. The San Francisco Giants are 3-8 in the month of August and have been unceremoniously escorted out of the exclusive first place club in the NL West by the Arizona Diamondbacks.Even people in faraway lands know the standard story about the Giants' declining offense this season, and that San Francisco could easily be 31st out of all MLB teams in runs scored (except there are only 30 teams). But now several starting pitchers have temporarily slipped their leash and there's no one to clean up after them.
Since July 20, 2011 San Francisco's chokingly poor 7-14 record has been been hoisted on the back of the team's starting pitchers, who personally took 13 of those 14 losses (Matt Cain 4, Jonathan Sanchez 2, Madison Bumgarner 2, Barry Zito 2, Tim Lincecum 2, and Ryan Vogelsong 1). But during that period Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner saw their ERAs get lower and Ryan Vogelsong's ERA only nudged up to 2.48.
Meantime Jonathan Sanchez (4.29 ERA) and Barry Zito (5.24 ERA) fully earned their combined 0-4 record since July 20th, and the Giants' search for a 5th starter has apparently stalled on all fronts. In the demanding universe of the 2010-11 World Champions every starter has to post an ERA that starts south of 3.50 to have a chance of winning-- even the 5th starter.
As a result of Sanchez looking absolutely lost on the mound in his two starts since coming off the disabled list the front office may yank converted reliever Dan Runzler up from Fresno and give the hard throwing lefty a shot a a start or two before the end of the month.
There is promising news. GM Brian Sabean has recalled Brandon Belt from Triple A Fresno to replace Andres Torres who just went on the 15 day DL with a shin bruise. The team may be at the point of privately declaring that Torres' 2011 season is officially a bust and that another solution is now needed at lead-off.
San Francisco's starting outfield has been abysmal at the plate since Opening Day. When longtime backup Nate Schierholtz managed to briefly hit above .290 for a few days, fans were debating just where his statue might be placed outside AT&T Park.
But on September 1st there is a chance that the Giants' first pick in the 2010 First Year Player Draft, the speedy hard-hitting Gary Brown, may get a good long look at lead off. And that would be a treat.
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Check out the latest two TPN Sports Buzz interviews with Richard Dyer of The Giants Cove. According to a survey taken yesterday of likely voters in a trailer park near Whitefish, Montana, "Dyer is an incredible guest who is not afraid to share his enormous wealth of great baseball knowledge." Then gunfire broke out.
On Friday July 22, 2011 I went live at 7:30AM PST with Sports Buzz host Tyler Pyburn who expertly guided me through a discussion of the Jeff Keppinger trade, the Giants' chronic lack of run production, and potential trades at the 7/31 deadline. The Skype video gremlins were being unruly, but the Sports Buzz production crew once again made it all good.
Amazingly, Sports Buzz picked up my option for another interview on Tuesday August 2, 2011. I said hello to host Butch Stearns live from the TPN studios in Boston, Massachusetts at 7:15AM Pacific time. We talked about the Carlos Beltran signing, Orlando Cabrera and the classic debate about excellent defense vs. improved offense, then finished up with a great discussion about the dynamic of "big market" teams who make the decision to trade a top minor league prospect.
Butch Stearns and Tyler Pyburn not only know their sports broadcast stuff, they generate enough energy to power over 22,000 homes in the greater Northeastern corridor. Kudos to the Sports Buzz production team and a thank you to Skype for finally providing a semi-acceptable video feed.
Go to the Sports Buzz link for the best in sports reporting and analysis.
Samuel L. Jackson said it best in his 2006 film "Snakes on a Plane": "Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherf--ing Snakes in this motherf--ing Western Division!" I'm having teeshirts and formal wear printed with these amazingly prophetic words because it appears the Arizona Diamondbacks have officially challenged the San Francisco Giants in the fight for the 2011 National League West title. And for some reason they're in no rush to fade back into 4th place where they belong.
In 2010 Arizona went 65-97-- finishing in last place in the NL West with third worst record in the Majors after Seattle (61-101) and Pittsburgh (57-105). The D'Backs were 25-56 on the road last year.
Jump to 2011 and Arizona is now 61-49 and tied with San Francisco for first place in the West. The Snakes' 2011 road record is 32-26, tied with Tampa Bay for fourth highest road wins in the game.
And did I forget to mention that the D'Backs lead all National League teams with 127 home runs? Maybe I did, maybe I didn't; but enough about the high flying motherf--ing Snakes.
The San Francisco Giants are on a five game losing streak. After winning 2 of 3 at Philadelphia last week they got slapped around for three games in Cincinnati then crawled home and proceeded to lose the first two games of a three game set against the surging Diamondbacks. What's going wrong right now for the Giants?
1. The Carlos Beltran trade will eventually provide a surge in offense for the run-starved Giants, but going into today's day game with the D'Backs, Beltran is hitting .200 (5 for 25) since joining the team six days ago. The front office and the fans would have liked a more explosive start to Beltran's career as a Giant, but everyone needs to be patient.
2. After showing a slight improvement in team runs scored the Giants have slipped back to 29th of 30 MLB teams with 385 runs scored. The Red Sox lead the Majors with 595 runs and the National League average is 453. Pablo Sandoval can't do it all by himself.
3. As a group, the outfielders continue to a struggle at the plate. After a short run of success in early July, Nate Schierholtz is 4-34 (.118) in his last 9 games with 2 RBI. His excellent defense is still a joy to watch but a corner outfielder has to be a run producer no matter how good his glove work is.
Andres Torres continues his year long slide at the plate hitting .233 with a .319 OBP. As of now, Torres has lost his center field/lead-off job to Cody Ross. Aaron Rowand is batting .248 with a .295 OBP.
Question: how long can the Giants outstanding starting and bullpen pitching hold the line and take the pressure of limiting opponents to 3 runs or less per game?
Answer: the pitchers may not have to wait much longer because there's positive news. The everyday batting line-up is starting to look formidable. The trio of Jeff Keppinger, Pablo Sandoval, and Carlos Beltran are a legitimate and potent heart of the batting order and their success will soon make the rest of the line-up better.
Most importantly, this is a Championship team with a group of players who seem to thrive living on the edge of 2-1 and 3-2 games the past two years. They are fearless and not prone to panic or cave into the pressure. No matter how many Snakes are on the plane.
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The San Francisco Giants have traded minor league outfield prospect Thomas Neal to the Cleveland Indians for thirty-six year old shortstop Orlando Cabrera. This is a deal that perfectly illustrates an ongoing addiction to the safety of mediocrity that occasionally overcomes General Manager Brian Sabean and the Giants' front office. What we have here is yet another past his prime veteran player brought in by the Giants who instantly becomes a roadblock for more talented organizational players in need the kind of development you can only get at the Major League level.
Neal is a mid-level outfield prospect with declining power numbers but I will guarantee the local sports talk radio shows in the Bay Area will be awash with fans outraged over losing Neal. Thanks to the infosocial network, serious baseball fans are more knowledgeable about their team's minor league system and the annual draft, which leads to a level of identification with specific minor league players that was unknown prior to the 1990s.
So when Zack Wheeler gets traded for Carlos Beltran, or Thomas Neal for Orlando Cabrera, fans feel something is lost even though they've likely never seen either of those players in a ballgame. But they know the latest stats for players at Single A San Jose and they're hyped about the possibility of seeing those players come up to the bigs.
In the Giants' case, trading Thomas Neal is not a dramatic loss. (Remind me I wrote that three years from now when Neal wins the American League Most Valuable Player Award.) San Francisco has two outstanding outfield prospects who are doing great, Gary Brown and Francisco Peguero, and there are a number of emerging minor league outfielders who are about to pass Thomas Neal by. So losing Neal is not the issue.
The loss here is bringing in yet one more aging, past his prime infielder in an attempt to squeeze out even a little more run production from the shortstop position. And so continues a 3 year tradition at AT&T Park of trotting out another in a series of birthday-challenged shortstops who have no range and seem to think that turning a double play will somehow raise their personal income tax.
Current shortstop Brandon Crawford is a rookie who can't stop slow dancing with the Mendoza Line, but his range at shortstop is breathtaking and he can turn jaw-dropping double plays. The Giants' great pitching depends on infielders with great range and a great arm. No matter who they dance with.
So, if I'm correct (and I am), next week the World Champion Giants infield will feature Miguel Tejada batting .242 with a .274 OPB, and Orlando Cabrera hitting .244 with a .277 OBP. Cabrera will be 37 years old this year and Tejada plays like he is just months away from getting his first AARP card. Anything else we need to know about Cabrera? Yes-- he's been on 8 teams in his 15 year career.
This old school reliance on previously talented veterans during times of run scoring stress is not new to GM Brian Sabean. But I thought he had moved on to a better place on this issue. I was wrong.
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According to FoxSports.com the Giants will also pay an estimated $2.5 million toward the remaining $6.5 million of Beltran's $18.5m 2011 contract. Beltran signed a seven year $119m deal with the Mets in 2005 Thirty-four year old Carlos Beltran has been a premier slugger during his 14 year career, posting eight 100+ RBI seasons as a member of the Mets (2005-2011), Houston Astros (2004) and Kansas City Royals (1998-2004). Beltran is a six time All Star and played in the 2004 National League Championship Series for the Astros and in the 2006 National League Division Series with the Mets.
Two years ago a severe knee injury and the resulting surgery hampered Beltran, limiting him to 81 games in 2009 and 64 games in 2010.
The Giants picked Zack Wheeler #6 overall in the first round of the 2009 First Year Player Draft. This year Wheeler has played for the single-A San Jose Giants, posting a 7-5/3.00/1.38WHIP, striking out 98 hitters in 88 IP. Keith Law of Baseball America rated Wheeler as the 36th best prospect in baseball.
Wheeler was projected as a can't miss addition to the Giants' starting rotation in several years, but San Francisco has a core group of very young starters at the big league level who the team will attempt to lock up longterm: Tim Lincecum (27), Matt Cain (26), Jonathan Sanchez (23), and Madion Bumgarner (21).
It remains to be seen if the Giants are interested in signing Beltran after this season; certainly they have the money and if Beltran's knees stay healthy he should be an offensive force for the next four years. With the return of Buster Posey in 2012, the emergence of Brandon Belt, and potent slugger Pablo Sandoval, Beltran's signing could make the Giants everyday batting line-up one of the best in the National League next year.
The Giants gave up a lot to get Beltran but this is exactly the right trade at the right time. This team has been unable to consistently score runs this season and has seen the efforts of their outstanding starting staff wasted time after time in low scoring loses. Zack Wheeler may be a choice prospect but he is currently playing on a single-A team and his future as a Major League ball player is yet to be determined. Carlos Beltran not only has proven himself at the highest level, he is the offensive game-changer the Giants desperately need.
The Beltran trade brings the Giants up to the level of the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies-- the two teams standing squarely between the San Francisco Giants and a second consecutive World Series Championship.
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