Major League Baseball teams around the country today unveiled their annual promotional giveaway schedules for the 2012 baseball season.

Fans attending America's grand old game next year can eagerly look forward to receiving an array of cheap foreign-made merchandise ranging from player bobbleheads (2 day average breakage rate), magnetic schedules (health alert! keep away from pregnant women and nursing mothers), posters (they tear easier than wet toilet paper), and collectible pins (worth tens of dozens of pennies in the years to come). 

Baseball owners hope the free handouts, whose average overall cost per item is approximately $1.15, will draw many more fans to pay the $30.00 average per ticket price for MLB games, ponying up over $200.00 for four people to attend a ballgame with parking and concessions added (2009 Fan Cost Index).

In economics, a business model that exchanges $1.15 of expenditures for revenue of over $50.00 per person is technically referred to as a "motherf---ing slam dunk".

The San Francisco Giants released their own promotional giveaway schedule for next season and no doubt those games will attract many excited fans. While the Giants will be celebrating over two dozen promotional dates, those were not the only giveaways originally proposed. In fact, Giants Cove investigative reporters have obtained a copy of the original memo listing the entire proposed 2012 giveaway schedule.

Take a look at several of the "days" that were ultimately not approved:

"Pablo Sandoval's Double-Size Pot Pie Eating Contest Event".
The first 20,000 fans able to watch this and refrain from leaving their seats and rush to the restrooms will be given a collectible fork pin. This promotion was dropped because the team psychologist stated the event would likely "permanently frighten" children under 17.

Tim Lincecum hosts "Let's Pretend Hemp isn't Dope Night".
Giants ownership was uncomfortable with the idea of Lincecum individually greeting the first 10,000 fans at the stadium entrance with "Hey bud, what's your problem...".

 "Orange Friday Tampon Night".
The Giants decided to save this promotion for one of their 2012 World Series home games so that Joe Buck and Tim McCarver would be forced to mention it on national TV. 

"Miguel Tejada Trading Card Giveaway Day".
The front office hoped to unload 85,000 Miguel Tejada 2011 Topps cards until officials from the Environmental Protection Agency intervened and ordered the cards be sealed in 55 gallon drums and stored at the Yucca Mountain Nuclear storage facility in Nevada for at least 300 years.

"Try to Beat Pablo to the Buffet Table Day".
Five lucky fans will be chosen to race Giants infielder Pablo Sandoval from second base to home plate where massive amounts of meats and cheeses will be laid out on a food cart. Promotion scratched due to potential ICU medical costs for fans with severe trampling injuries.
 
"Brian Sabean GM for a Day". 
One lucky fan will be chosen to be the Giants' general manager for the day with the following duties: 1) call other general managers around baseball and remind them Barry Zito is still available for less than $20 million a year; 2) use the phrases "at the end of the day" and "all due diligence" at least 30 times each; and, 3) update Brian's laptop screensaver list of the most expensive available shortstops who are over 35 years old and also have increasingly limited range.
Promotion personally cancelled by Brian Sabean for some reason.

Hey-- see you out at the ballpark on those very special promotional days!

In a move that was not unexpected the San Francisco Giants gave up a piece of their prized starting pitching to improve a limp offense that came in 29th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored in 2011. The Giants sent lefty starter Jonathan Sanchez, 28, and minor league lefty Ryan Verdugo, 24, to the Kansas City Royals for Melky Cabrera, an extra-base hitting outfielder with average defensive numbers.

Sanchez was drafted in the 27th round of the 2004 amateur player draft by the Giants and was brought up to the big club in 2006. On July 10, 2009, Sanchez threw a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres, the first for a Giants pitcher in 33 years. During the 2010 post season, Sanchez appeared in 4 games going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA.

Overall Jonathan Sanchez was 38-46 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Giants, But it was his ability to strike batters out that propelled his potential: 157 SOs in 2008, 179 in 2009, and 205 in 2010. Sanchez spent much of the 2011 season on the DL with a biceps injury and a badly sprained ankle.

Melky Cabrera was among the top ten American League hitters in a number of key offensive categories in 2011, which was considered the switch-hitting slugger's breakout year at the plate:
> 4th overall with 201 hits;
> 7th overall in total bases with 309;
> 8th overall with 44 doubles.  

Cabrera has been primarily a center fielder throughout his career; in 2011 with Kansas City he played 143 games in center, 9 in left field, 2 in right field and 2 as a DH. Originally drafted as an amateur free agent in 2001 by the New York Yankees, Cabrera spent 5 years with the Yankees (2005-09), one year with the Atlanta Braves in 2010.

While a team can never predict the perfect time to trade a player, it's generally thought the Giants might have received a bigger bat had they moved Sanchez after the 2010 season. But that's convenient hindsight: with the issues surrounding 5th starter Barry Zito and no minor league pitchers ready to be moved up, Sanchez provided the World Series champs with critical depth in their starting rotation as they began the 2011 season. And a twenty-seven year old left handed starter with a no-hitter under his belt offered the potential of further improvement.

But after last season, the Giants' front office finally reached the breaking point with Sanchez's increasingly poor control. He allowed 5.9 walks per nine innings in 2011, and had a career total of 4.8 BB/9. The emergence of veteran Ryan Vogelsong last season as a solid contributor to the Giants' starting rotation gave San Francisco an opening to trade one of their proven starters for a proven bat.

Melky Cabrera should fit in to one of the 3-4-5 spots in the Giants 2012 batting line-up, and this should be the end of the line for Andres Torres and/or Cody Ross. There is little room for Torres because a) Cabrera is the starting center fielder now, b) Torres' disastrous 2011 season was one of the primary reasons the Giants offense died last year, and 3) Torres brings little to the table as a back-up outfielder.

Cody Ross' salary will probably price him out of the Giants plans as a starter, and the Giants already have a great back-up at a great price in Nate Schierholtz (which is the correct role for Schierholtz next year).

Cabrera signed with Kansas City as a free agent for $1.25 million after getting out of shape during his 2010 stint with the Braves. MLB Trade Rumors pegs his signing salary with the Giants at about $4.4 million, so Cabrera looks to be a huge bargain for San Francisco.

Even with the Cabrera trade, the Giants still have much to fix in their offense. They need another outfielder and a lead-off batter and they need another power bat. If the front office is seriously pursuing Carlos Beltran, he will solve both the power bat and outfielder issues. 

What remains is getting an on base machine to hit first in the batting order, a final decision on who will be the 2012 shortstop, and finding a starting second baseman to back up the injury-prone Freddy Sanchez. Despite all the budget ceiling talk from the Giants ownership and front office, San Francisco certainly has the revenue to sign one or two more free agents and make a serious charge into the post season next October.

When baseball people speak of off season "rebuilding" it is usually in reference to a team at a complete dead end, staring off into a storm-clouded future of bleak nothingness. Kind of like how I felt while doing my taxes last year. 

A team knows it's reached the abyss when even the .500 teams briefly reanimated and smacked them around the previous season. Last place ballclubs with little hope of moving up in their division the following year (or the following three years) use the term "rebuilding" to reassure their fan base that the team's front office is at least doing something, anything, to give the impression there's some semblance of command and control still in play.

But there's another side to the traditional rebuild, and the San Francisco Giants are in that process right now. Call it "some reassembly is required" as the Giants take the necessary steps to ensure their outstanding 2010-11 bullpen will be in place for the 2012 campaign.

San Francisco started by signing impending free agent lefty specialist Javier Lopez, 34, to a two year $8.5 million deal-- a well-earned raise from his $2.375 million 2011 salary. There is little doubt Lopez could have angled a bigger payday in the open market where the number of above average left-handed power assassins are always a rarity. But apparently being happy in the workplace and the promise of another World Series ring meant more than making an extra $300,000 a year. Very cool.

The Giants immediately followed up by exercising their $5 million option with another leftly in the pen, Jeremy Affeldt. Affeldt is not currently in the $5m value range but San Francisco needed to lock him up quick; look for both sides to agree on a two year deal somewhere south of Lopez's range in the next month or so.

If anyone still doubts the 2010 Series champs are all in with pitching, find me another team with two non-closer left-handers in their bullpen pulling down $9.25 million a year.

Closer Brian Wilson's two year $15 million deal concludes in 2012, leaving three pieces of the bullpen left to reassemble: arbitration-eligible pitchers Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez, and Santiago Casilla. Romo is the team's set-up man and is indispensable-- look for a two-year deal and Romo's $1.3 2011 salary to snap into the $5+ million a year range. Ramirez and Casilla should fit comfortably into the 2012 budget.

In particular, Casilla has been a huge contributor to the team's bullpen success and has put up remarkably consistent numbers the past two years:

S. Casilla	WHIP	SO/per 9 innings	BB/per 9 innings	ERA	IP
2010	1.19	9.1	2.1	1.95	55.1
2011	1.12	7.8	1.8	1.74	51.2

The bullpen, along with starting pitching and run scoring, comprise the three critical components of a winning team. San Francisco is putting its bullpen house in order and the team's premier starting pitching got even better with the arrival of Ryan Vogelsong last season. What remains is that very large honking elephant taking up so much space in the room, continually bellowing about scoring runs.

Will Carlos Beltran please stand up...

Quick-- what was the best World Series in MLB history? What was the best World Series you saw on television, heard on radio, or saw in person? Not so fast compadre; one strict rule applies before you grab your 40 for $1.50 Walmart pen and start furiously writing down your all time Series match-up lists.

You must eliminate any Fall Classic that makes the list simply because your team won, or because you attended a game, or that was the week you had your very first sexual experience with at least one other person in the room.

The 2010 World Series dominated by the San Francisco Giants was fantastic and attending those home games will forever be one of the top 25 highlights of my life (see pp above for another of the "top 25s" on my list). But the Giants-Rangers World Series was not a classic of the genre and likely wouldn't make an informed list of the top 10 Series of all time. (I'll talk about the three best Series in MLB history in an upcoming blog.)

The first five games of the St. Louis Cardinals/Texas Rangers Series, however, have overflowed with exciting baseball and enough juicy subtext and sidebar stories to keep the ESPN Sports Center and MLB TV guys chattering away for hours. This Classic has actually been an honest-to-god classic so far and could very well make the top 10 World Series' of all time.

That's a hint. If you're not watching these games you are missing something special. And special doesn't come around very often. To bring you up to date so far with just a couple of tidbits...

> the Series started with electrifying back to back 1 run games;
> Game 3 was a 16-7 Cardinal blowout during which Cards 1st baseman Albert Pujols became only the third player in history to hit three home runs in a Series game (Babe Ruth did it in 1926 & 1928, Reggie Jackson in 1977);
> Game 4 featured a masterful performance by Rangers' starter Derek Holland as St Louis was shutout and held to only 2 hits;
> Game 5 was a nightmare for the Rangers' defense but a bigger nightmare for Cards' Manager Tony La Russa. Twice when La Russa called his bullpen in mid-game his bullpen coach Derek Lilliquist heard the wrong name over the phone and got the wrong pitcher warmed up. Astoundingly, that miscommunication ended up costing La Russa the game.

Rangers up 3 games to 2.

Rain has caused Game 6 to be rescheduled from Wednesday night to Thursday night. I've already told the President and the Governor to not even think about texting me during the game, and two 55 gallon drums of guacamole are en route to the house from the Costco regional clearing facility in central Alabama.

This is something not to be missed...     

The history of MLB trades sometimes gives the impression that certain baseball teams are permanently hard-wired to make certain types of trades.

It doesn't matter who the current owner, general manager or manager is at any given time-- there's a DNA ribbon somewhere inside the New York Yankees, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays that compells their front offices to often trigger the kind of blockbuster trades that rumble through the Major League landscape.

Most other MLB teams rarely do more than tinker or make those player-for-player moves projected to benefit both teams. The San Francisco Giants are one such team.

To be fair, the whole nature of baseball trades, especially the classic "blockbuster" trade, has changed over the past fifteen plus years. Fans tend to think only in terms of what happens on the field (which is their job), and in that universe making trades takes on an importance that can be out of proportion and out of touch with real world player/team management.

Front offices are now corporately organized so franchise branding, vendor contracts, season ticket sales, and media agreements are the financial life-blood of every Major League baseball team. Add to that the changing face of free agency, arbitration, and the impact of the statistical revolution, and the opportunity (or need) for big player trades just isn't on the radar.

Just what is a "blockbuster" trade? Other than trading Babe Ruth to finance a Broadway musical (which, by the way, is not a true story), we think of blockbuster trades as involving multiple players at least two of whom are front line performers. A classic blockbuster is the December 12, 1990 trade between the Blue Jays and San Diego Padres: the Pads sent Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter to the Jays for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez.

And the travels of slick fielding shortstop Tony Fernandez were just beginning: after two very good years with the Padres in 1991-92, he was traded to the Mets (1993), back to Toronto (1993), then to Cincinnati (1994), the Yankees (1995), the Cleveland Indians (1997), again to Toronto (1998-01), then to the Brewers and finally back to the Blue Jays in 2001 to retire. Whew.

A more recent "blockbuster" was the 2007 deal that sent Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to Arizona from the Oakland As for Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham. Dan Haren produced a 16-8 for the D'Backs in 2008, and 14-10 in 2009. He ended up with the Angels and had a great 2011, going 16-10/3.17/192SOs .

For the San Francisco Giants only two trades in the past 25 years really qualify as "blockbusters".

The November 13, 1996 deal that sent Matt Williams and Trent Hubbard from the Giants to the Cleveland Indians for Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez, Jose Vizcaino, and Joe Roa. In his only year with the Indians Matt Williams put up 105RBI/32HR numbers; he finished the last six years of his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

And of course Jeff Kent sealed his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame as a Giant by knocking in over 100 RBI each of his six years in San Francisco, teaming up with Barry Bonds to lead the team to the 2002 World Series, and being named the National League League MVP in 2000.

San Francisco's other blockbuster trade in the past 25 years? July 5, 1987 when the San Diego Padres sent Kevin Mitchell, Dave Dravecky, and Craig Lefferts to the Giants for Mark Davis, Mark Grant, Chris Brown, and Keith Comstock.

Mark Davis had 44 saves for the Pads in 1989 with a 1.85 ERA. The Giants went to the 1987 NLCS, losing to St. Louis 4 games to 3, then to the World Series in 1989 (losing to Oakland 4-0). But in 1989 the Giants' Kevin Mitchell had one of the greatest offensive years in NL history: 127 RBI, 47 HR, .291 Avg, 1.023 OPS, .388 OBP, 100 runs scored. Mitchell was the NL MVP that year.

And today? The San Francisco Giants are actually in the rare position to make a classic blockbuster trade, because 1) terrible run production is killing the team's chances of ever getting back to the post season; and, 2) they have an excess of quality pitching. That scenario sets up a classic deal: the quality starting pitcher for the quality 3-4-5 hitter. With the usual additional players thrown in.

The Giants braintrust has made it clear that they want to keep their starting pitching intact. But take a look at the structure of the four teams making the NLCS/ALCS this year-- they have a very different approach to balancing pitching and hitting. Texas, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Detroit all featured relentless batting line-ups with 3 or 4 major hitters backed up by several above average offensive players.

The starting pitching set-ups for the 2011 Championship Series' teams are amazingly similar: a top tier starter, a quality starter, and two starting pitchers who are not top tier but will win games because they have a run-producing offense behind them.

So while Tim Lincecum (13-14), Matt Cain (12-11), Madison Bumgarner (13-13), Jonathan Sanchez (4-7, injured), and Ryan Vogelsong (13-7) are a great five man rotation, their records reflect what happens to great pitching when the team's offense can only average 3.5 runs per game.

Trading Cain and either Sanchez or Vogelsong for RBI producing hitters would be a logical first step. If that happened I'm going to guess that, a) the Giants would pick up sufficiently talented starting pitchers to fill the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation; and, b) those "lesser" pitchers' win-loss records will look damn good thanks to having a run producing batting line-up supporting them.

So hold on to your seats-- and cross your fingers that an old school blockbuster trade just could be in the Giants' immediate future.
          

The San Francisco Giants' 2012 Opening Day line-up will reflect three critical franchise mandates: 1) payroll budgetary limitations;  2) management's commitment to keeping the starting pitching core intact; and, 3) improving the offense. Note that "improving the offense" comes in 3rd-- get used to it because that's the way that particular dog will hunt for the next several years.

Effective Major League Baseball franchise management is a strange and complex combination of business savvy, deep experience, and the ability to identify and understand intangibles. Otherwise we could simply take the team's projected $125 million budget, pull out a calculator and skip all the analysis and reckless speculation. And we can't have that.

For the past several years this team has been committed to a model that features strong and deep starting pitching, an above average bullpen core that can be tweaked or reinvented any time between December and August, and just enough offense to compete. Using that template let's look at which position players should be retained for 2012:

Keepers: 2012 positons filled
Pablo Sandoval was the team's offensive foundation in 2011 despite going on the DL April 30th and missing 40 games with a wrist injury. Sandoval led the Giants in RBI (70) and home runs (26), and had a .909 OPS. His range and footwork at 3rd have improved each year and he is just this side of a gold glove.
 
Sandoval's weight issues will always be a shadow looming over his performance at the plate and on the field and he is currently arbitration-eligible for the first time in his career.  

Buster Posey will be behind home plate on Opening Day and should regain both his offensive momentum and his leadership role in the clubhouse. For 2013 there has to be serious discussions around moving Posey to the infield or left field with Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez off the books at the end of the 2012 season.

The 2013 season could bring huge changes to the infield: a Sandoval weight jihad could flip-flop Posey and Sandoval at 1st and 3rd while 2011 #1 draft pick Joe Panik looks to have the chops to take over at second base. There is also a possiblity the catcher position could be filled in-house by minor league propsects Hector Sanchez or Tommy Joseph.

Freddy Sanchez signed a 1 year extention for 2012 at $6 million and will be pegged as the starting second baseman. DL insurance at second has been mandatory throughout Sanchez's injury-filled tenure as a Giant. Jeff Keppinger was hitting .307 when San Francisco picked him up from the Astros in mid-season to take over for Sanchez but his production tailed off and he hit .255 the rest of the year. Keppinger earned $2.3 million in 2011 and that puts him on the bubble in terms of being the Sanchez insurance policy.
 
The Giants have more affordable options in the speedy Emmanuel Burriss ($405K in 2011) or the versatile Mike Fontenot ($1.05 million in 2011), although Keppinger, Burriss and Fontenot are all arbitration-eligible so the price of Sanchez-insurance could increase over last year.  

Aubrey Huff will complete his two year $22 million contract in 2012 which means the Giants will be compelled to play him. If he recaptures his career average RBI production Huff would see time at 1st base and/or left field. Obviously the Giants' take on the status of Brandon Belt will determine where and when Huff plays next season, but his $11 million salary buys Huff the first half of the 2012 season to prove he is back as an RBI producer; if he falters for a second year in a row expect him to be riding the pine by mid-July.

Cody Ross brings a nice combination of speedy defense and extra base hit production to the outfield, but things start to get crowded once you come to grips with the fact that only three players normally play in the outfield, and two sit on the bench.

So here's what should happen:
> The Giants' number 1 priority should be to sign or trade for a starting center fielder/lead-off hitter to replace Andres Torres. Nothing the team does this off-season will improve the offense better. Torres deserves a chance to catch on with another team and find his 2010 mojo.

It is no secret that Oakland A's free agent Coco Crisp would be ideal.
 
> The frosting on the outfield cake would be for the Giants to also sign free agent rightfielder Carlos Beltran to a three year $36 million contract. Beltran brings stability to right field and takes over as the #3 hitter in the batting order. Beltran surrounded by an actual lead-off hitter plus Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey looks like a nice recipe for increased run production at a reasonable price.

> That leaves Cody Ross and Nate Schierholtz as the outfield back-ups; Ross can play all three positions, Schierholtz can play right and left. Ross is a starter who can take over every day at any time but his $6.3 million salary in 2011 may be a bigger payday than the Giants want to pay for a back-up outfielder. On the other hand, that $6m would be a great salary savings to swing toward signing Crisp and/or Beltran.

Schierholtz is a career-long back-up, and he should stay a back-up. Because if it comes down to having Brandon Belt play every day or Nate Schierholtz play every day, it's the biggest no-brainer of all time (or second biggest, after that home loan commercial on the radio). Brandon Belt needs to be in the 2012 line-up every day.

Who has to go
We have already identified Andres Torres, whose 2011 performance was one of the reasons the Giants did not make the playoffs.
> Aaron Rowand (the Giants will eat $12 million of his salary in 2012), Miguel Tejada, and (hopefully) Orlando Cabrera are out.
> The wonderful Pat Burrell will not likely come back but he would be a great addition to the Giants' coaching unit.
> With Posey back it appears that either Eli Whiteside or Chris Stewart will be cut. Whiteside has been a rock for the past two years, but Stewart brings an added dimension of defense, and will likely back up Posey.

Who needs a chance to perform
> Brandon Crawford should be given the chance to become the everyday shortstop. Nothing replaces the defensive range and ability he brings to back up the starting and bullpen pitching. Enough of the 35+ year old free agent veterans at short who can't hit or field. Brian I'm begging you, please.

> Mark DeRosa had an injury-filled two year tenure that only allowed glimpses of his offensive abilities. DeRosa brings a lot to the table and I would like to see a one year contract with an option year for 2013.

> Rookie Brett Pill was written off as too old (27) to catch on in the Majors, but he hit .300 in 15 games with 7 XBH, 9 RBI and a .881 OPS. Let's see how far the old rookie can take this.      
      
So what do we have if this all works out the way it should?

2012 SF Giants line-up
1. Coco Crisp CF
2. Freddy Sanchez 2B
3. Carlos Beltran RF
4. Pablo Sandoval 3B
5. Buster Posey C
6. Brandon Belt 1B
7. Aubrey Huff LF
8. Brandon Crawford SS 

Next: Starting and bullpen pitching

Here's the tidy tag line a lot of sports media are spouting to sum up the fall of the 2011 Giants: San Francisco's season ended on May 26th when Buster Posey was lost for the season. After that, it was all downhill.

And here's what actually happened. The 2011 season was a mirror image of the Giants' 2010 championship year when San Francisco stunk the joint up in the first half then proceeded to light the place on fire in the second half.

Despite the terrible offense and the injuries to Posey, Freddy Sanchez, and Pablo Sandoval the Giants rode high throughout the first half of 2011 and the playoffs looked like a lock.

The Giants then nose-dived throughout an ugly August: .235 team BA, .287 team OBP, 2.69 runs scored per game. Give the talented Arizona Diamondbacks full credit for putting together a potent combination of dominant power pitching and power hitting just as the San Francisco Giants started their second half slide.

The next several months will be about the critical changes that need to happen for the San Francisco Giants to get to the post season and into the 2012 World Series. Of the current players, some should stay, some should be escorted out of the building; and several free agent signings and trades should be made.

This is the first of several blogs that will 1) examine why the Giants 2011 season collapsed; 2) discuss which position players should stay or go; and, 3) assess whether the Giants organization is capable of a philosophy change that will rebalance their offense to reinvent this damaged team into a contender by Opening Day 2012.     

First, Let's Conduct a Forensic Autopsy of the 2011 Season [play the "Law and Order" musical "dum-dum" exclamation here] 

1. The loss of catcher Buster Posey did not doom the Giants 2011 season.

Sorry to complicate a convenient and popular story line. When the Florida Marlins sent Buster Posey into rehab on May 26th, the wheels did not come off the bus. In fact, the bus traveled in the fast lane for two months after Posey went down. The San Francisco Giants hit their 2011 high water mark, in the observant words of Giant broadcasters Dave Flemming and Jon Miller, on July 28th when they took 2 out of three from the Phillies at Philadelphia.

On that date the Giants were 61-44 in 1st place in the NL West a full 4 games in front of the Diamondbacks.
But on July 29th the team proceded to:
> get swept in a three game series at Cincinnati;
> come home August 1st and drop 2 of 3 against Arizona, 3 of 4 against Philadelphia, and 2 of 3 against the Pirates.

And so the Giants' Titanic-like 11-18 August was fully underway. This team, already struggling offensively, proceded to go completely under and it's not likely that even a healthy Buster Posey could have turned that ship around all by himself.

2. The lead-off spot in the batting order was an early and ongoing disaster but the Giant's front office never addressed the issue.

Giants lead-off hitters batted .232 in 2011 with a .292 OBP. Andres Torres, who was so spectacular in 2010, hit .221 in 112 games with a .643 OPS and 95 SOs.

Even teams with a solid 3-4-5 middle of the order depend on a lead-off hitter to set the table and cause high jinks on the base paths. Certainly the National League team whose run scoring hovered between 29th and 30th out of 30 MLB teams could not hope to survive without a significant upgrade at the lead-off spot. Only it never happened.

3. The Brandon Belt chronicles.

When rookie first baseman Brandon Belt did not immediately light the National League on fire and the overall offense continued to be sluggish, General Manager Brian Sabean went to his default offensive philosophy: go to veteran hitters because they just might have enough to carry this great pitching staff.

So players like Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Bill Hall, Orlando Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, and Andres Torres were allowed to amass almost 1,700 at-bats in 2011--nearly 80% of which were unproductive outs. It is amazing that, despite their year-long struggles at the plate, many of these players were still being penciled into the starting line-up through early September.

As for Belt, he was sent up and down from Triple-A Fresno a number of times and, even when he was up with the big team, often sat on the bench. Each time the front office determined Belt needed to make adjustments at the plate he went to Fresno rather than  learning his craft at the big league level.

The question remains: how much would Brandon Belt have contributed to the team's failing offense if the front office had simply kept him up, given him more big league at bats, and worked through his hitting issues with big league coaches?
 
Look at two different approaches taken by the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals with their own rookie infielders last season:

Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt started 2010 in Triple A and like Brandon Belt had a mercurial rise through the minor leagues. The D'Backs brought Goldschmidt up on August 1 and stayed with him through several hitting slumps. 

After Danny Espinosa started 2010 in AA, the Nationals brought him up at the September 1, 2010 call-ups; Espinosa hit .214 in 103 ABs. In 2011 Washington committed to Espinosa as their starting second baseman from day one.

2011	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	OPS	AVG
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARZ	156	28	39	9	1	8	26	.808	.250
Danny Espinosa 2B WAS	573	72	135	29	5	21	66	.737	.236
Brandon Belt 1B SFG	187	21	42	6	1	9	18	.718	.225
Belt projected @ 573 ABs	573	64	129	18	3	28	55	.718	.225

Belt was out for six weeks with a hand injury and would not have played the whole season (and amassed 573 ABs), but this illustrates his potential contributions with the numbers he was producing. Note that Atlanta rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman had 571 ABs in 2011.

It is also reasonable to project that Brandon Belt would have likely increased his OBP and overall hitting with additional and consistant plate experiences. Performing at his 2011 level projected to 573 at bats (Espinosa's number), Belt would have:

> finished 3rd in RBI after Sandoval (70) and Huff (59);
> finished 2nd in hits;
> led the Giants in runs scored;
> led the team in home runs.  

4. Infield defense.

The final contribution to the demise of the 2011 San Francisco Giants was the front office's gross negligence when it came to infield defense.

Much was made of how understanding and patient Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and Madison Bumgarner were with the team's anemic run support. It started out as a joke among writers and fans, but once the opposing team scored three or four runs in a given game, that game was essentially over. Throughout the year, the Giants' starting pitchers carried the party line and were not critical of the offense.

But what was intolerable was the infield defense behind the starting pitchers. Even though it became clear early on that veteran free agent Miguel Tejada could no longer field his shortstop position, he was trotted out there game after game for months. It wasn't the clumsy errors that hurt, it was the glaring lack of range and a chronic inability to turn the double play that simply killed the starting pitchers.

At mid-season the team brought up rookie shortstop Brandon Crawford who was spectucular on the field but struggled at the plate. The front office responded by signing aging veteran Orlando Cabrera, who made some of the most embarassing errors of the year beside displaying his own diminishing lack of range.

At second base, Bill Hall hit .158 with a .220 OBP before he was injured and later cut. Mike Fontenot hit .227 with a  .304 OBP at second, short and third. The Giants traded for Jeff Keppinger, who brought a .300 Avg from Houston but finished up hitting .255 with a .285 OBP. 

In the desperate season-long search for offense, the Giants' front office was willing to trade infield defense behind their starting pitching for more offense. In the end, they got neither:

Miguel Tejada: .239/.270 OBP
Orlando Cabrera: .222/.241 OBP
Mike Fontenot: .227/.304 OBP

On a team built around outstanding starting and bullpen pitching, Giants management undervalued a key element that allows outstanding pitching to create wins.

Next: Position players-- who should stay, who should go.

As we careen towards October, a lot has been written about the San Francisco Giants' dramatically dwindling window to somehow qualify for the 2011 MLB playoffs. To understand exactly how far under the Porta Potty the Giants are at this moment, let's take a quick look at the math.

The Giants are 84-72 as they begin the last six games of the season, starting with a three game set tonight in Arizona and followed by three at home with the Rockies. They are 6 games behind the the Arizona D'Backs, who have clinched at least a tie for the National League West title. The Giants are in third place for the NL Wild Card title, two games behind St. Louis and four games behind the first place Atlanta Braves.

For the Giants to take either the NL West or NL Wild Card title I have determined that the following three things would have to happen:

1. The Fox News Channel announces its decision to hire Charlie Sheen and Muammar Gaddafi to anchor their gavel-to-gavel coverage of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida.

2. The earth shifts slightly on its north/south axis forcing millions of penguins to improperly mate. A new super species of the amusing looking bird would then threaten North America forcing the President to cancel the MLB playoffs. This may give the Giants the time they need to schedule extra batting practice with runners in scoring position.

3. Fox Sports baseball announcer Tim McCarver gets through an entire ball game without saying a variation of the following: "While I agree that Matt Kemp's three run homer looks like it helps the Dodgers, Joe, a much smarter play in this situation would have been to go for the sacrifice bunt...".

In other words, the San Francisco Giants ain't making the 2011 playoffs. From this point on, the view is all Porta Potty all the time.

There are two important things about July 27, 2011. First, the San Francisco Giants were 60-44 and led the NL West by three games; second, the Giants traded their #1 minor league prospect, Zack Wheeler, for Mets slugger Carlos Beltran in an attempt to bring an offensive upgrade to their criminally negligent run scoring.

Problem was, from July 28th through September 10th the Giants proceeded to post a stunning 15-28 win-loss record, plunging them 9.5 games behind the first place D'Backs. Preparations were then made to officially kiss the 2011 playoffs goodbye, which included error-filled listless play in the field, an increasingly mediocre offensive, and a palace purge of Giants Chief Executive Officer Bill Neukom by Giants COO Larry Baer.

Oh, and management replaced all those expensive bottles of Fiji Water in the clubhouse with Trader Joe's delicious brown canal mix.

Then the San Francisco Giants did something. They won eight games in a row, with Madison Bumgarner getting two wins in 8-1 and 9-1 finals. Carlos Beltran went on a 14-30 tear in the last seven games and Pablo Sandoval went on a ginormous rampage that made him NL Player of the Week ending September 18th.

And something else also happened that maybe trumped all the great hitting and pitching. The Giants released Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada, two players who were dead weight on the field and negative weight in the clubhouse. Add to that: defensive shortstop wizard Brandon Crawford finally got playing time over tired veteran Orlando Cabrera. Addition by serious subtraction.

Tonight the Giants start a three game series in LA with the Dodgers. Followed by three games with the D'Backs in Arizona.  San Francisco is 4 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL Wild Card, and 5.5 games behind NL West leading Arizona.

What else can happen in the next 9 games? You'd drop your adult beverage if I told you...



            

Make no mistake about it. The the decision by the 32 principal partners who comprise the ownership group of the San Francisco Giants to dump managing general partner Bill Neukom registered pretty close to the 1906 earthquake on the City's Richter scale. Not only is Neukom out as the lead guy in the ownership group, he is also expected to sell his shares of the team to a number of current investors.

We'll have to wait and see if the Giants' principal partners also make Neukom change his name and relocate to a run down trailor park in rural Nevada. 

Bill Neukom's removal was supposed to be made public at the conclusion of the 2011 season sometime before December, the baseball equivalent of making the move in the middle of the night when no one is watching. But when word of Neukom's purge was leaked to Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury the Giants' front office went into scramble mode, trying to pass this off as an orderly, planned transition under the silly cover story that Bill Neukom had intended to "retire" this year all along.

Right. And Osama bin Laden passed away after accidently tripping on a rug in his secure compound.   

Simply put, this is an unprecedented palace purge within a Major League franchise that won the World Series a mere 10 and a half months ago. And these type of topplings do not happen unless another guy at the top is making his move; in this case team President and COO Larry Baer now becomes San Francisco's Chief Executive Officer. Think "Godfather III" only with a much better script and no George Hamilton.

During a 47 minute live press conference on CSN Bay Area this morning, Bill Neukom and Larry Baer spent a great deal of time hailing Neukom's achievements leading the Giants. In fact the gathered media was repeatedly reminded of Nukom's wide-ranging accomplishments on behalf of the organization, making one wonder how they could possibly let him slip away.

The chilling reality? Absolutely no denials of reporter Mark Purdy's two key contentions that, 1) Neukom did not effectively communicate with the ownership's Executive Committee in terms of the trades and other payroll decisions made this year (think the Carlos Beltran and Orlando Cabrera trades and eating the remaining $12.5 million of Aaron Rowand's contract); and, 2) that Bill Neukom is being forced out by the ownership's Executive Committee.

What does it all mean? That's up to Larry Baer, who has been part of the Giants' original ownership group since 1993. Either Baer is going to boldly put his mark on this franchise or he is going to slink under the radar and be more of an empowering steward who hopes to simply keep his job longer than three years. Think about it: the Giants will have had three CEO's in one four year period. 

The "Larry Baer era" would have to begin with the graceful removal of General Manager Brian Sabean and his outdated management approach. At a time when many younger GMs freely communicate with each other, with player agents, and with the media, Sabean still runs the baseball operations side of the franchise like the Soviet Union during the cold war.

And Sabean's slow acceptance of the advanced, cutting edge information sabermetrics can provide kept the Giants front office perpetually stuck in a 1990 baseball operations mindset for years. Which may explain why the team ends up with so many high-priced veterans who were productive at some point in the past-- unable to properly assess upcoming talent, Sabean relies on the previously talented.

Brian Sabean has a one year extension through 2012; what happens with that contract will be a big clue about the team's future direction. Another test will be what the Giants do this off-season about their anemic offense. At the end of this season free agents like Albert Pujols will be up for grabs, and somewhere out there are teams who would be willing to trade a quality offensive player for pitcher Matt Cain and his 68-72 record.