The 2012 baseball season will be an economic crossroads for the San Francisco Giants.

On the contract and player payroll front, two out of control fiscal freight trains are heading for each other at top speed and will soon collide in an explosion of greenbacks, champagne, and Texas Instruments calculators: current and expensive bad contracts, and inescapably costly new contracts.

On the Oakland A's relocation front, the Giants brain trust will have to make a final decision on whether to, a) lock horns with about 90% of all Major League Baseball owners and fight to keep their territorial rights in San Jose and the Silicon Valley; or, b) appease their Mercedes driving/50 year old scotch drinking/leather chair sitting brethren and settle for what must ultimately be a modest buyout in the name of family peace.

But back to my brilliant freight trains anaolgy. Just when you thought the infosphere couldn't hold one more bad news story about San Francisco Giant player contracts, up jumps 2012. In the upcoming season potentially $41 million dollars will be diverted from the Giants real estate development project across McCovey Cove and into the pockets of Barry Zito ($19m), Aaron Rowand ($12m), and Aubrey Huff ($10m). That train began to go out of control years ago. 

Certainly Zito will earn his paychecks if he can keep his 5th starter role throughout 2012, and Huff is scheduled to play either left field or bump Brandon Belt off of 1st base. That is if Huff can bounce back from his horrific 2011 season-- something that has not historically come easy for 35-year-old baseball players.

And Aaron Rowand? The good news is that he was invited to the Miami Marlins spring camp and if he makes the team the Giants are only on the hook for $11.52m of his $12m salary this season. The frosting on that cake will melt when Rowand drives in his first run against the Giants in the regular season. 

            Which brings us to a stunning and improbable 2013 Opening Day:
                       three Giant starters will be making close to $60 million...  
                                 
The other speeding freight train on the payroll front is all about new contracts. That dreaded time when starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain begin to make Top Tier Money is at hand. Lincecum and his agent are at the arbitration table even as we sit and eat our Oreos and milk and there is little doubt he will walk away with the two things he wants most: a $20+ million a year salary, and a two year contract that will not interfere with cashing in hugetime as a free agent in several years.

At the same time, Matt Cain will close a three year $27.25m contract with San Francisco by pulling down $15m in 2012. Apparently the team is desperately hoping they can wrap Cain up for anywhere from 3-5 years starting in 2013 at less than $20m a year. Cain will go for the multi-year deal, but it's hard to believe it will be significantly below an average of $20m a year. [I won't even mention that closer Brian Wilson is scheduled to be arbitration-eligible in 2013. Oops!] 

Which brings us to a stunning and improbable 2013 Opening Day: the Giants will have three pitchers in the starting rotation making close to $60 million (Zito, Lincecum, Cain). Even the Philadelphia Phillies, who have one of the highest salaried starting rotations in MLB history, will have to stretch to top the Giants:

Philadelphia	Roy Halladay	Cliff Lee	Cole Hamels	Roy Oswalt	Totals
2011	$20m	$11m	$9.5m	$16m	$56.5m
2012	$20m	$21.5m	$15m	-free agent-	$56.5m
2013	$20m	$25m	-free agent-	-?-	$45m

    
Despite Rowand and Huff coming off the books next year, payroll will continue to be consumed in mass quantities by starting and bullpen pitching. And that suggests the San Francisco Giants' offense will continue to be a patched together combination of home-grown talent (cross your fingers) and bargain basement free agents and trade candidates.

Next: the Giants fierce territorial claims in San Jose and the neighboring Silicon Valley will make the Oklahoma Land Rush of 1889 look like a stroll down Sesame Street.

In the Beginning
Opening Day of the 2012 MLB season will provide a dynamic first look at the revised, rebooted, and reconstructed National League of Professional Ball Clubs-- commonly referred to as the NL. There have been few moments in the League's history when the start of a single season featured the kind of warp speed changes that will ultimately lead to sweeping new bases of power, dramatic franchise revivals, and a restructuring of what it takes to build a playoff contending team.

Say Hello to My Little Friend Jeffrey 
On Wednesday April 4th a starting pitcher for the former Florida Marlins will throw the first pitch of the season in the first game at Marlins Stadium, the new home of the newly rechristened Miami Marlins. The Marlins' opponents will be the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals, who recently lost the best hitter of the 21st century from their roster. This is an appropriate starting point for our tour of the redesigned and fully loaded 2012 National League.

The first game of the 2012 Baseball season is all about the renewal of the Marlins and the ability of the Cardinals to sustain their Championship dominance. That game will likely showcase the return of two of the National League's elite pitching aces-- the Cards' Adam Wainwright, who missed the 2011 season with Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins' Josh Johnson, who was shut down halfway through the season with elbow problems.

After winning the 2003 World Series the Marlins have spent eight years wandering aimlessly around the National League East, finishing as high as second place only once. Now owner Jeffrey Loria has a new ballpark, a newly opened wallet, and intentions to refit his team with the latest playoff specs.

Loria's near-simultaneous offers to top free agents Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, C. J. Wilson, and who knows how many others, was a clear message that the Miami owner was planning to watch a number of post season games from his newly built skybox in October 2012.

A Feast in the NL Central
In the NL Central Division kitchen, the St. Louis Cardinals are looking to cook up consecutive World Series appearances, but they'll have to do it with fewer ingredients in the cupboard. Take last year's Championship season, now subtract the best manager in baseball (Tony La Russa) and the best player in baseball (Albert Pujols) from the 2012 recipe. Now add large amounts of steaming Milwaukee Brewers, generous portions of the newly spiced up Cincinnati Reds' starting rotation (the Mat Latos trade), and fill your glass with a flagon of reconstituted Cubs. Shake well and open carefully.

Whose NL Central cuisine will reign supreme? If Dusty Baker can put his distracting player reclamation projects into the deep freeze and keep his focus on the main ingredient, the Reds could cook up a feast in 2012.

90% is Genius. The Other Half is 50% Toughness.  
Charging into the National League with multiple rotating spent titanium ammo guns blazing in 2012 will be two of the game's most dynamic and intelligent executives: Theo Epstein and Sandy Alderson. Their jobs will be to resuscitate two of the League's biggest franchises, both on life support with health care benefits running out and both bleeding payroll for years: the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets.

Sandy Alderson's MLB career has been outstanding and historic: General Manager of the Oakland A's during the resurgent 1980 and 1990 eras; the tough and creative executive in the Baseball Commissioner's Office who in 1999 accepted the resignations of MLB umpires who thought they would shut the game down as part of a union negotiation strategy; and most recently the CEO of the San Diego Padres. If the owners are smart, and the fans are lucky, Alderson should be the next Commissioner of Baseball.

As the new General Manager of the Mets, Sandy Alderson will bring sanity to a franchise in multiplicities of disarray, enforcing the kind of smart business and fiscal acumen that other MLB franchises will soon envy. Alderson has a commitment to professionalism and excellence that only an ex-Marine can bring. Look for the New York Mets to swing that 500,000 ton supership slowly back into the MLB fast lane. Then watch the hell out.
                    
Theo Epstein did what 86 years of various Red Sox front offices could not do: he finally got Boston into the World Series and won it all. And Epstein did it twice: in 2004 and 2007. Theo Epstein is the new President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs and his first move was to bring the brilliant Padres GM Jed Hoyer back to Epstein's team. Hoyer worked as Epstein's Assistant GM in Boston from 2005 to 2009, and they have a unique relationship that works on a professional and personal level.

Here's an easy bet to make the next time you're in Atlantic City, Reno, or Vegas: take the Cubs to go all the way for the first time since 1908, maybe by 2014. And that's a mortal lock. With both of these baseball icons now personally directing National League teams, the NL will never be the same again.

The Upside
The San Francisco Giants are not going anywhere. Long-tenured GM Brian Sabean may be the Grizzly Adams of National League GMs but apparently he's learned a few things along the way. The Giants' outstanding starting and bullpen pitching is actually stronger than it's ever been and the Giants' front office improved the offense to the point where National League pitchers may have to actually pay attention to them in 2012. If there is one team in baseball that could really grab the League by the scruff and soar next season it is this San Francisco team.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the war horse of the National League: wily veterans, RBI producers, individuals who have been around the block a few times, and starting pitching rivaled only by the Giants. Take this team for granted, or poke them, and you will regret it, your family will regret it, and everyone you've ever known will regret it.

Did I mention the Arizona Diamondbacks? The bad news for other NL teams is that the Snakes have improved over the 2011 team that won the National League West Division. Seems they added Oakland A's ace Trevor Cahill and improved an already decent bullpen. Oh, and the front office seems to be doing well: the brilliant Kevin Towers is GM and 2011 National League Manager of the Year Kirk Gibson is still the Manager. Well, well, well... 
       
The Downside
Three damaged NL franchises will celebrate their local 50th anniversaries in 2012: the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Houston Astros, and the New York Mets. The Dodgers are in a deep hole without a paddle, but the right new ownership should be able to get the LA brand out of hock and back into elite territory in the next few years. Good news for the somewhat moribund Giant-Dodger rivalry.    

The Mets have been going down a bad road for a long time, highlighted by one post season appearance in the last 11 years (lost the 2006 NLCS) and the careless investment of huge payrolls in underachieving management and players. Here's just the past three years of the Met's payroll, their MLB payroll ranking, and the results:

2011: $120.1 million, 4th highest in MLB, 4th place NL East;
2010: $143.4 million, 5th highest in MLB, 4th place NL East;
2009: $147.4 million, 2nd highest in MLB, 4th place NL East.

Through 2014, the Mets owe chronically-injured starter Johan Santana and apparently over-the-hill outfielder Jason Bay $106 million.

Say goodbye to the Houston Astros, serial underachievers who were told to leave the National League after next season and never return. They will be joining the American League West Division just in time to be pummeled by the Los Angeles Angels and Albert Pujols for at least the next fifteen years. Quick recap: in the past 25 years the Astros made the post season just six times-- and were eliminated each time. Why President Obama forced them out of the National League I will never understand...

What It All Means
National League baseball will be one of the most fascinating and complex stories in professional sports over the next several years. You might want to be there.

In a flash the San Francisco Giants have made room in their 2012 outfield for a new center fielder and lead-off man, and traded a member of their high priced bullpen to lighten the 2012 payroll bottom line.

It was announced tonight that the Giants traded righty relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez and outfielder Andres Torres to the New York Mets for center fielder Angel Pagan. Pagan will bring a live bat and real speed to the lead-off spot in the Giants' batting order and allow the team to move recently acquired outfielder Melky Cabrera to right field.

These moves should finalize the Giants 2012 batting line-up and, on paper, can't help but improve the team's famously terrible run production-- in 2011 the Giants were second worst of 30 MLB teams in run scoring after the Seattle Mariners (570 runs/3.52 runs per game).

Thirty-year-old Angel Pagan was picked in the 4th round of the 1999 amateur draft by the New York Mets, and spent his first two big league seasons in 2006 and 2007 with the Chicago Cubs. Pagan rejoined the Mets in 2008, appearing in 151 games in 2010 and 123 games in 2011. In 2011 he started every game in center field, batting lead-off in 31 games and in the 5th slot in 56 games.

In six big league seasons, Pagan has averaged 151 hits, 30 2B, 10 HR, 79 RS, 63 RBI, and a stolen base average of 28-8. He also has a .331 OBP average and a .750 OPS.

Ramon Ramirez leaves the Giants after coming over from the Boston Red Sox in 2010 and helping to revitalize the bull pen, posting a 0.67 ERA in 25 games with a .889 WHIP. Ramirez followed that up with another great year in 2011, going 2.62ERA/66 games/1.16WHIP. After Andres Torres' stellar 2010 season ended with a World Series Championship, his production at the plate fell off dramatically in 2011.

The potential 2012 San Francisco Giants batting line-up should give National League pitchers something to think about for the first time in many years:

1. Angel Pagan CF
2. Freddy Sanchez 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval 3B
4. Melky Cabrera RF
5. Buster Posey C
6. Brandon Belt 1B
7. Aubrey Huff LF
8. Brandon Crawford SS

If the Giants can wrap up Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong in multi-year deals, the team's outstanding starting pitching could be solid for the next several years. And we can now officially call off the hunt for Carlos Beltran and focus on Opening Day 2012.

Several notes and comments about the 2012 Baseball Winter Meetings being held Monday through Thursday this week in Dallas, Texas.

As reported in MLBTradeRumors, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com tweeted from Dallas that the Giants are actively seeking to trade second baseman Jeff Keppinger, outfielder Andres Torres, and relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez. 

Keppinger was signed to a one year deal in 2011 by the Astros for $2.3 million. No doubt he is seeking a starting job at second, which the Giants can't provide with Freddy Sanchez returning on Opening Day. Keppinger is arbitration-eligible and will be a free agent in 2013 if he doesn't sign a multi-year deal somewhere. This is a double play for the front office since San Francisco is also looking to dump/transfer salary on their roster.

Andres Torres' terrible 2011 season (.221AVG/.312OBP/.643OPS) was one of the major reasons the Giants did not reach the playoffs. The team apparently believes he will not recapture his 2010 form at the plate. I thought Torres would simply be released this off season, and that may happen if the Giants cannot work out a deal in the next week or so. He could also be non-tendered and resigned for much less money, but why?

Ramirez is also arbitration-eligible and would likely push the salary envelope at $2.5 million. This is another case of salary transfer and several young arms ready to move up from the Minors. CBS's Knobler noted that the Giants are planning to keep lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt, who could be a back-up closer if Brian Wilson has further injury issues.

These moves could be a final restructuring of the 2012 payroll spreadsheet, signaling that San Francisco is truly done adding to the 25 man roster. Or it could be the prelude to one more high profile signing, either a starting shortstop or that elusive other impact bat in the outfield.

The recent announcement that Aubrey Huff would be starting in left field (and coming out of games in late innings much like Pat Burrell did in 2010), opens the Giants' first base position to two speculations: Brandon Belt will finally get a starting position on the field and in the line-up, or the Giants have a surprise candidate in mind to play first.
    

With contract extensions completed for General Manager Brian Sabean and Manager Bruce Bochy through 2013, the San Francisco Giants' management group is now free to fully concentrate another extension: playing baseball deep into October 2012.

And that brings us to two related areas of interest: the team's 2012 payroll budget, and what the final 2012 25-man roster might look like.
 
The first thing to understand about the Giants 2012 payroll "budget" is that it has virtually nothing to do with which players should be signed, whether or not more offense is needed, or any other on field consideration. That payroll figure is simply part of the team's overall projected expenditures for 2012, like purchasing toner for the office copy machines or the cost to keep the turf at AT&T Park in tip top shape. Among other things.

In October 2011 the Giants announced their 2012 payroll "budget" would be $124 million. In November, the month that follows right after October, soon to be CEO Larry Baer stated the 2012 player payroll would now be $130 million. Nothing better illustrates the semi-arbitrary thin air from which these figures are pulled. 

The San Francisco Giants are a big market team with large amounts of money both in team revenue and in their ownership group. Principal shareholder Charles Johnson, with a personal net worth of $4.4 billion, was recently named the 72nd richest American by Forbes. The team has plans for a massive development project in the pier and parking areas across McCovey Cove from the ballpark.

Despite costs and revenue, management would still like to earn a profit for its ownership group at the end of each year. Forbes.com published the estimated operating costs and revenues for all 30 MLB teams in 2009; that year the Giants made a profit of $23.5 million.

SF Chronicle sports writer Henry Schulman said it best in his October 29, 2011 "Splash" column. Giant fans and bloggers should consider the following whenever Giants ownership talks about what they can and can't afford:
       
"The Giants’ partners have every right to decide how much profit they want to make on their investments and set the player payroll accordingly. But let’s be intellectually honest here. It’s not accurate to say they cannot afford a big-name hitter. They can. It’s just a matter of how much risk they will allow their general manager to take against the potential reward of another parade down Market Street next fall."

Now all this doesn't mean that, a) Giants ownership should start spending money like Wall Street bankers; b) the front office should not make a profit (they wouldn't be doing their jobs if they lost money); or especially, c) the team should take on any more life-sucking high cost-low yield player contracts (see Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito).

Just don't play the we-don't-have-the-money card any time in the next 50-100 years. That's all.

The 2012 roster
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported the Giants are trying to trade either Ramon Ramirez or Jeremy Affeldt to downsize some of the $23.3 million tied up in the team's bullpen. Affeldt is scheduled to make $5m and Ramirez projects to $2.3m. Quality bullpen arms are always in high demand when the stove is hot, and moving one or both players could allow both a salary dump and some prospect pick-ups.

Given San Francisco's commitment to contractually wrapping up their starting pitching, it's hard to see Cody Ross coming back anywhere near his $6.3m 2011 salary. Which means Ross goes unless he gives a home team discount or no one else offers something better.

The shadow of Carlos Beltran looms over possible contracts with Ross and several other termed out players. If Beltran signs, outfield playing time will also become an issue; Beltran in right and Melky Cabrera in center leaves, I believe, only left field open. Hard to believe the Giants won't give Brandon Belt a shot as the everyday left fielder (or first baseman, if Aubrey Huff can make it back and forth between the dugout and left field between innings).

As I look into my $5.99 Walgreen's crystal ball (on sale for $1.99), I see two upcoming signings by the Giants: a solid infielder who is able to start at short or second, and one more impact bat (that is, unless Beltran signs somewhere else).

Major League Baseball teams around the country today unveiled their annual promotional giveaway schedules for the 2012 baseball season.

Fans attending America's grand old game next year can eagerly look forward to receiving an array of cheap foreign-made merchandise ranging from player bobbleheads (2 day average breakage rate), magnetic schedules (health alert! keep away from pregnant women and nursing mothers), posters (they tear easier than wet toilet paper), and collectible pins (worth tens of dozens of pennies in the years to come). 

Baseball owners hope the free handouts, whose average overall cost per item is approximately $1.15, will draw many more fans to pay the $30.00 average per ticket price for MLB games, ponying up over $200.00 for four people to attend a ballgame with parking and concessions added (2009 Fan Cost Index).

In economics, a business model that exchanges $1.15 of expenditures for revenue of over $50.00 per person is technically referred to as a "motherf---ing slam dunk".

The San Francisco Giants released their own promotional giveaway schedule for next season and no doubt those games will attract many excited fans. While the Giants will be celebrating over two dozen promotional dates, those were not the only giveaways originally proposed. In fact, Giants Cove investigative reporters have obtained a copy of the original memo listing the entire proposed 2012 giveaway schedule.

Take a look at several of the "days" that were ultimately not approved:

"Pablo Sandoval's Double-Size Pot Pie Eating Contest Event".
The first 20,000 fans able to watch this and refrain from leaving their seats and rush to the restrooms will be given a collectible fork pin. This promotion was dropped because the team psychologist stated the event would likely "permanently frighten" children under 17.

Tim Lincecum hosts "Let's Pretend Hemp isn't Dope Night".
Giants ownership was uncomfortable with the idea of Lincecum individually greeting the first 10,000 fans at the stadium entrance with "Hey bud, what's your problem...".

 "Orange Friday Tampon Night".
The Giants decided to save this promotion for one of their 2012 World Series home games so that Joe Buck and Tim McCarver would be forced to mention it on national TV. 

"Miguel Tejada Trading Card Giveaway Day".
The front office hoped to unload 85,000 Miguel Tejada 2011 Topps cards until officials from the Environmental Protection Agency intervened and ordered the cards be sealed in 55 gallon drums and stored at the Yucca Mountain Nuclear storage facility in Nevada for at least 300 years.

"Try to Beat Pablo to the Buffet Table Day".
Five lucky fans will be chosen to race Giants infielder Pablo Sandoval from second base to home plate where massive amounts of meats and cheeses will be laid out on a food cart. Promotion scratched due to potential ICU medical costs for fans with severe trampling injuries.
 
"Brian Sabean GM for a Day". 
One lucky fan will be chosen to be the Giants' general manager for the day with the following duties: 1) call other general managers around baseball and remind them Barry Zito is still available for less than $20 million a year; 2) use the phrases "at the end of the day" and "all due diligence" at least 30 times each; and, 3) update Brian's laptop screensaver list of the most expensive available shortstops who are over 35 years old and also have increasingly limited range.
Promotion personally cancelled by Brian Sabean for some reason.

Hey-- see you out at the ballpark on those very special promotional days!

In a move that was not unexpected the San Francisco Giants gave up a piece of their prized starting pitching to improve a limp offense that came in 29th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored in 2011. The Giants sent lefty starter Jonathan Sanchez, 28, and minor league lefty Ryan Verdugo, 24, to the Kansas City Royals for Melky Cabrera, an extra-base hitting outfielder with average defensive numbers.

Sanchez was drafted in the 27th round of the 2004 amateur player draft by the Giants and was brought up to the big club in 2006. On July 10, 2009, Sanchez threw a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres, the first for a Giants pitcher in 33 years. During the 2010 post season, Sanchez appeared in 4 games going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA.

Overall Jonathan Sanchez was 38-46 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Giants, But it was his ability to strike batters out that propelled his potential: 157 SOs in 2008, 179 in 2009, and 205 in 2010. Sanchez spent much of the 2011 season on the DL with a biceps injury and a badly sprained ankle.

Melky Cabrera was among the top ten American League hitters in a number of key offensive categories in 2011, which was considered the switch-hitting slugger's breakout year at the plate:
> 4th overall with 201 hits;
> 7th overall in total bases with 309;
> 8th overall with 44 doubles.  

Cabrera has been primarily a center fielder throughout his career; in 2011 with Kansas City he played 143 games in center, 9 in left field, 2 in right field and 2 as a DH. Originally drafted as an amateur free agent in 2001 by the New York Yankees, Cabrera spent 5 years with the Yankees (2005-09), one year with the Atlanta Braves in 2010.

While a team can never predict the perfect time to trade a player, it's generally thought the Giants might have received a bigger bat had they moved Sanchez after the 2010 season. But that's convenient hindsight: with the issues surrounding 5th starter Barry Zito and no minor league pitchers ready to be moved up, Sanchez provided the World Series champs with critical depth in their starting rotation as they began the 2011 season. And a twenty-seven year old left handed starter with a no-hitter under his belt offered the potential of further improvement.

But after last season, the Giants' front office finally reached the breaking point with Sanchez's increasingly poor control. He allowed 5.9 walks per nine innings in 2011, and had a career total of 4.8 BB/9. The emergence of veteran Ryan Vogelsong last season as a solid contributor to the Giants' starting rotation gave San Francisco an opening to trade one of their proven starters for a proven bat.

Melky Cabrera should fit in to one of the 3-4-5 spots in the Giants 2012 batting line-up, and this should be the end of the line for Andres Torres and/or Cody Ross. There is little room for Torres because a) Cabrera is the starting center fielder now, b) Torres' disastrous 2011 season was one of the primary reasons the Giants offense died last year, and 3) Torres brings little to the table as a back-up outfielder.

Cody Ross' salary will probably price him out of the Giants plans as a starter, and the Giants already have a great back-up at a great price in Nate Schierholtz (which is the correct role for Schierholtz next year).

Cabrera signed with Kansas City as a free agent for $1.25 million after getting out of shape during his 2010 stint with the Braves. MLB Trade Rumors pegs his signing salary with the Giants at about $4.4 million, so Cabrera looks to be a huge bargain for San Francisco.

Even with the Cabrera trade, the Giants still have much to fix in their offense. They need another outfielder and a lead-off batter and they need another power bat. If the front office is seriously pursuing Carlos Beltran, he will solve both the power bat and outfielder issues. 

What remains is getting an on base machine to hit first in the batting order, a final decision on who will be the 2012 shortstop, and finding a starting second baseman to back up the injury-prone Freddy Sanchez. Despite all the budget ceiling talk from the Giants ownership and front office, San Francisco certainly has the revenue to sign one or two more free agents and make a serious charge into the post season next October.

When baseball people speak of off season "rebuilding" it is usually in reference to a team at a complete dead end, staring off into a storm-clouded future of bleak nothingness. Kind of like how I felt while doing my taxes last year. 

A team knows it's reached the abyss when even the .500 teams briefly reanimated and smacked them around the previous season. Last place ballclubs with little hope of moving up in their division the following year (or the following three years) use the term "rebuilding" to reassure their fan base that the team's front office is at least doing something, anything, to give the impression there's some semblance of command and control still in play.

But there's another side to the traditional rebuild, and the San Francisco Giants are in that process right now. Call it "some reassembly is required" as the Giants take the necessary steps to ensure their outstanding 2010-11 bullpen will be in place for the 2012 campaign.

San Francisco started by signing impending free agent lefty specialist Javier Lopez, 34, to a two year $8.5 million deal-- a well-earned raise from his $2.375 million 2011 salary. There is little doubt Lopez could have angled a bigger payday in the open market where the number of above average left-handed power assassins are always a rarity. But apparently being happy in the workplace and the promise of another World Series ring meant more than making an extra $300,000 a year. Very cool.

The Giants immediately followed up by exercising their $5 million option with another leftly in the pen, Jeremy Affeldt. Affeldt is not currently in the $5m value range but San Francisco needed to lock him up quick; look for both sides to agree on a two year deal somewhere south of Lopez's range in the next month or so.

If anyone still doubts the 2010 Series champs are all in with pitching, find me another team with two non-closer left-handers in their bullpen pulling down $9.25 million a year.

Closer Brian Wilson's two year $15 million deal concludes in 2012, leaving three pieces of the bullpen left to reassemble: arbitration-eligible pitchers Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez, and Santiago Casilla. Romo is the team's set-up man and is indispensable-- look for a two-year deal and Romo's $1.3 2011 salary to snap into the $5+ million a year range. Ramirez and Casilla should fit comfortably into the 2012 budget.

In particular, Casilla has been a huge contributor to the team's bullpen success and has put up remarkably consistent numbers the past two years:

S. Casilla	WHIP	SO/per 9 innings	BB/per 9 innings	ERA	IP
2010	1.19	9.1	2.1	1.95	55.1
2011	1.12	7.8	1.8	1.74	51.2

The bullpen, along with starting pitching and run scoring, comprise the three critical components of a winning team. San Francisco is putting its bullpen house in order and the team's premier starting pitching got even better with the arrival of Ryan Vogelsong last season. What remains is that very large honking elephant taking up so much space in the room, continually bellowing about scoring runs.

Will Carlos Beltran please stand up...

Quick-- what was the best World Series in MLB history? What was the best World Series you saw on television, heard on radio, or saw in person? Not so fast compadre; one strict rule applies before you grab your 40 for $1.50 Walmart pen and start furiously writing down your all time Series match-up lists.

You must eliminate any Fall Classic that makes the list simply because your team won, or because you attended a game, or that was the week you had your very first sexual experience with at least one other person in the room.

The 2010 World Series dominated by the San Francisco Giants was fantastic and attending those home games will forever be one of the top 25 highlights of my life (see pp above for another of the "top 25s" on my list). But the Giants-Rangers World Series was not a classic of the genre and likely wouldn't make an informed list of the top 10 Series of all time. (I'll talk about the three best Series in MLB history in an upcoming blog.)

The first five games of the St. Louis Cardinals/Texas Rangers Series, however, have overflowed with exciting baseball and enough juicy subtext and sidebar stories to keep the ESPN Sports Center and MLB TV guys chattering away for hours. This Classic has actually been an honest-to-god classic so far and could very well make the top 10 World Series' of all time.

That's a hint. If you're not watching these games you are missing something special. And special doesn't come around very often. To bring you up to date so far with just a couple of tidbits...

> the Series started with electrifying back to back 1 run games;
> Game 3 was a 16-7 Cardinal blowout during which Cards 1st baseman Albert Pujols became only the third player in history to hit three home runs in a Series game (Babe Ruth did it in 1926 & 1928, Reggie Jackson in 1977);
> Game 4 featured a masterful performance by Rangers' starter Derek Holland as St Louis was shutout and held to only 2 hits;
> Game 5 was a nightmare for the Rangers' defense but a bigger nightmare for Cards' Manager Tony La Russa. Twice when La Russa called his bullpen in mid-game his bullpen coach Derek Lilliquist heard the wrong name over the phone and got the wrong pitcher warmed up. Astoundingly, that miscommunication ended up costing La Russa the game.

Rangers up 3 games to 2.

Rain has caused Game 6 to be rescheduled from Wednesday night to Thursday night. I've already told the President and the Governor to not even think about texting me during the game, and two 55 gallon drums of guacamole are en route to the house from the Costco regional clearing facility in central Alabama.

This is something not to be missed...     

The history of MLB trades sometimes gives the impression that certain baseball teams are permanently hard-wired to make certain types of trades.

It doesn't matter who the current owner, general manager or manager is at any given time-- there's a DNA ribbon somewhere inside the New York Yankees, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays that compells their front offices to often trigger the kind of blockbuster trades that rumble through the Major League landscape.

Most other MLB teams rarely do more than tinker or make those player-for-player moves projected to benefit both teams. The San Francisco Giants are one such team.

To be fair, the whole nature of baseball trades, especially the classic "blockbuster" trade, has changed over the past fifteen plus years. Fans tend to think only in terms of what happens on the field (which is their job), and in that universe making trades takes on an importance that can be out of proportion and out of touch with real world player/team management.

Front offices are now corporately organized so franchise branding, vendor contracts, season ticket sales, and media agreements are the financial life-blood of every Major League baseball team. Add to that the changing face of free agency, arbitration, and the impact of the statistical revolution, and the opportunity (or need) for big player trades just isn't on the radar.

Just what is a "blockbuster" trade? Other than trading Babe Ruth to finance a Broadway musical (which, by the way, is not a true story), we think of blockbuster trades as involving multiple players at least two of whom are front line performers. A classic blockbuster is the December 12, 1990 trade between the Blue Jays and San Diego Padres: the Pads sent Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter to the Jays for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez.

And the travels of slick fielding shortstop Tony Fernandez were just beginning: after two very good years with the Padres in 1991-92, he was traded to the Mets (1993), back to Toronto (1993), then to Cincinnati (1994), the Yankees (1995), the Cleveland Indians (1997), again to Toronto (1998-01), then to the Brewers and finally back to the Blue Jays in 2001 to retire. Whew.

A more recent "blockbuster" was the 2007 deal that sent Dan Haren and Connor Robertson to Arizona from the Oakland As for Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham. Dan Haren produced a 16-8 for the D'Backs in 2008, and 14-10 in 2009. He ended up with the Angels and had a great 2011, going 16-10/3.17/192SOs .

For the San Francisco Giants only two trades in the past 25 years really qualify as "blockbusters".

The November 13, 1996 deal that sent Matt Williams and Trent Hubbard from the Giants to the Cleveland Indians for Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez, Jose Vizcaino, and Joe Roa. In his only year with the Indians Matt Williams put up 105RBI/32HR numbers; he finished the last six years of his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

And of course Jeff Kent sealed his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame as a Giant by knocking in over 100 RBI each of his six years in San Francisco, teaming up with Barry Bonds to lead the team to the 2002 World Series, and being named the National League League MVP in 2000.

San Francisco's other blockbuster trade in the past 25 years? July 5, 1987 when the San Diego Padres sent Kevin Mitchell, Dave Dravecky, and Craig Lefferts to the Giants for Mark Davis, Mark Grant, Chris Brown, and Keith Comstock.

Mark Davis had 44 saves for the Pads in 1989 with a 1.85 ERA. The Giants went to the 1987 NLCS, losing to St. Louis 4 games to 3, then to the World Series in 1989 (losing to Oakland 4-0). But in 1989 the Giants' Kevin Mitchell had one of the greatest offensive years in NL history: 127 RBI, 47 HR, .291 Avg, 1.023 OPS, .388 OBP, 100 runs scored. Mitchell was the NL MVP that year.

And today? The San Francisco Giants are actually in the rare position to make a classic blockbuster trade, because 1) terrible run production is killing the team's chances of ever getting back to the post season; and, 2) they have an excess of quality pitching. That scenario sets up a classic deal: the quality starting pitcher for the quality 3-4-5 hitter. With the usual additional players thrown in.

The Giants braintrust has made it clear that they want to keep their starting pitching intact. But take a look at the structure of the four teams making the NLCS/ALCS this year-- they have a very different approach to balancing pitching and hitting. Texas, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Detroit all featured relentless batting line-ups with 3 or 4 major hitters backed up by several above average offensive players.

The starting pitching set-ups for the 2011 Championship Series' teams are amazingly similar: a top tier starter, a quality starter, and two starting pitchers who are not top tier but will win games because they have a run-producing offense behind them.

So while Tim Lincecum (13-14), Matt Cain (12-11), Madison Bumgarner (13-13), Jonathan Sanchez (4-7, injured), and Ryan Vogelsong (13-7) are a great five man rotation, their records reflect what happens to great pitching when the team's offense can only average 3.5 runs per game.

Trading Cain and either Sanchez or Vogelsong for RBI producing hitters would be a logical first step. If that happened I'm going to guess that, a) the Giants would pick up sufficiently talented starting pitchers to fill the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation; and, b) those "lesser" pitchers' win-loss records will look damn good thanks to having a run producing batting line-up supporting them.

So hold on to your seats-- and cross your fingers that an old school blockbuster trade just could be in the Giants' immediate future.