I Don’t Care If I Never Get Back: Surviving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Written by Richard Dyer on .

Traveling across the country last month I had a short stopover in Pittsburgh, home to the National League Central Division Pirates. Last year, the hapless Bucs achieved something that may be more difficult than winning three World Series in a row: they played their 18th consecutive losing baseball season— 1993 through 2010.

A quick check of Wikipedia confirmed it is the longest losing streak by any organized group of human beings in the history of civilization.

pirates-championsApparently a number of dedicated Pirate fans believe it will take only another eight to ten losing seasons before the front office finally gets control of this thing and begins to turn it around. They say we’ll know when that happens because by then Ben and Jerry’s ice cream will be stored and sold in hell.

While in the Steel City, I took the opportunity to stop in on an old friend who is a dedicated Pittsburgh Pirates fan and season ticket holder. This is not widely known, but a local ordinance forces the Pirates’ organization to send a letter to all season ticket holders each January asking if they really want to renew, or if they would prefer to watch the games on TV or simply read about them the next day in the newspaper. It's part of the city's nationally acclaimed suicide prevention program.

My buddy asked me if I wanted to go with him to a monthly meeting of recovering Pittsburgh Pirates fans, held in a drafty old warehouse in the industrial section of the city. It seemed harmless, so that night we drove through dark city streets along the river, parked amid broken bottles and trash, then walked up to an old building and entered a large brightly lit room.

Inside, a variety of people sat in several dozen folding chairs facing a worn podium. As we took our seats, I noticed a scruffy table along the side wall with boxes of doughnuts and an old metal coffee urn surrounded by stacks of white Styrofoam cups. On the wall was a Pittsburgh Pirates banner with a red line through it.

A man slowly walked up to the podium and spoke. "I want to welcome everyone and I applaud your courage in coming here tonight. I know it's not easy, but I have faith we can beat this thing together. Now let's hear from someone in the audience who has wrestled the demon down and is now free."

A man raised his hand and stood up. "Hi... my name is William and as of yesterday, I haven't have been a Pirates fan for three straight years." The room erupted in applause and shouts of “Yes we can!” as William smiled and lowered his head.

“You all know I slipped, lost control and became a Pirates fan a couple of times on and off the past ten years, despite all the bad trades of the really good players and the inability of the front office to properly assess and draft minor league talent. But I want everyone to know I'm back."

More applause and cheering filled the dingy room as William smiled sheepishly and sat down. "Thank you, William," said the moderator. “Everyone in this is room knows no matter how long they stop, inside they will always be Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Now, can we please hear from Pastor Bob?"

A black-robed man stood up, shuffled to the podium and began to speak. "After eighteen straight losing seasons, we know we cannot beat the flannel devil that haunts us without looking him in the face, so I want everyone to bow their heads and repeat the names on this partial list as I speak them...".

Pastor Bob held up a remarkably thick set of crumpled papers. “First, the names of Pittsburgh Pirate players we foolishly lost in negligent, ass backward trades: Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Aramis Ramirez, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, Jason Schmidt."

After reciting the names, many in the room suddenly began to shift in their seats and mumble in pain and anger.

pirates-simpsonsPastor Bob continued. "Next, those players the Pirates could have picked before any other team in the annual First Year Player drafts if our GMs didn't have their heads so dramatically deep inside their fat butts: Jayson Werth, Lance Berkman, Jon Garland (1997); C.C. Sabathia, Brad Lidge (1998); Ben Sheets, Alex Rios (1999); Adam Wainwright (2000); David Wright (2001); Prince Fielder, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Denard Span, James Loney, Scott Kasmir, B.J. Upton (2002); Phil Hughes, Jered Weaver (2004); Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza (2005); Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum (2006); Jayson Heyward, Madison Bumgarner (2007); Buster Posey (2008)."

At this point, a number of the reformed Pirate fans began openly sobbing and wailing, and quite a number pulled out hidden bottles from their coats and began drinking directly from them. When they started yelling and knocking over chairs, my friend and I quickly headed out the back door.

As we sped away in the night, I took a bite from a stale doughnut and vowed to never become a Pittsburgh Pirates fan no matter how desperate I was or how low my self-esteem. That level of pain and suffering is just too much to bear.

(Updated from an original 2009 blog.)

Spring Training Midpoint Report

Written by Richard Dyer on .

As the San Francisco Giants sprint past the halfway point of their 36 game Spring Training schedule, there is a distinct lack of drama surrounding players and management as all those embarrassing wins continue to pile up. If asked, the politically correct baseball establishment would not doubt follow the proper script and insist the team's 14-4 Cactus League record is completely meaningless; but imagine the stories that would flow from the national MLB media if the Giants were 6-12.

It may be a West Coast thing, or it may be FoxSports TV's continuing addiction to the Yankee-Red Sox crack monster, but San Francisco has simply not received the level of respect from the national sports media that they earned in taking the 2010 World Championship crown. You see it in virtually every 2011 baseball season preview show, feature article, and commentary. The only Giants-related story that will get the interest of ESPN, or Fox Sports, or SI.com, or the MLB Network is if the World Series champs stumble significantly at any point in 2011.

And that, I suppose, is life in the big city.

Getting back to the Giants' extremely impressive 14-4 Spring record, by far the best record in the Majors, here are some top fives in a number of offensive and pitching categories at the halfway point:

AB TB XBH OBP (min. 20 ABs)
1) Pablo Sandoval 40     1) Pablo Sandoval 24     1) Pablo Sandoval  6    1) Buster Posey .556
2) Brandon Belt 38 2) Buster Posey 19 2) Buster Posey  5 2) Andres Torres .448
3) Mark DeRosa 32 3) Brandon Belt 17     Brandon Belt  5 3) Cody Ross .438
4) Aubrey Huff 30    Cody Ross 17 3) Cody Ross  4 4) Pat Burrell .387
    Nate Schierholtz 30    Andres Torres 17     Nate Schierholtz  4 5) Mike Fontenot .355
5) Mike Fontenot 28 4) Nate Schierholtz 16     Pat Burrell  4
   Miguel Tejada 28 5) Pat Burrell 15     Mike Fontenot  4
    Andres Torres  4


IP SO WHIP (min. 6 innings) ERA (min. 6 innings)
1) R. Vogelsong 12.2      1) Tim Lincecum 14     1) Jeff Suppan .44      1) Sergio Romo 0.00
2) Tim Lincecum 12.1 2) M. Bumgarner 12 2) Sergio Romo .67 2) Jeremy Affeldt 1.50
3) M. Bumgarner 11.0 3) Ryan Vogelsong 11 3) Dan Runzler .96 3) Jeff Suppan 2.00
4) Barry Zito 9.2 4) Jonathan Sanchez  9 4) Santiago Casilla 1.00 4) J. Sanchez 2.08
5) Jeff Suppan 9.0 5) Jeremy Affeldt  7    Guillermo Mota 1.00 5) Ryan Vogelsong 2.13
   Dan Runzler  7 5) Madison Bumgarner 1.09

The Brandon Belt Chronicles: Two Chilling Scenarios

Written by Richard Dyer on .

brandonbelt-3Welcome to "The  Brandon Belt Chronicles", an ongoing series of insightful and revealing commentaries about the San Francisco Giants' number one minor league prospect, and the only debatable issue facing the San Francisco Giants this Spring. Sure, there are several pitched battles being fought for one or two open bullpen spots, but let's get disturbingly real here and admit the only critical question in camp Giants is whether or not super prospect Brandon Belt goes north with the team or finds an apartment in Fresno this Spring.

Even though Giants General Manager Brian Sabean has all but declared that Belt would start the season as a member of the Triple A Fresno Grizzlies, speculation yet abounds Belt might just make the big team. I would say about 99.98% of that speculation can be found exclusively on local Bay Area sports talk radio. That's not surprising since desperation for controversy, whether real or manufactured, is the fuel that allows sports talk radio broadcasters to remain fully conscious during a three hour shift full of callers wondering why the Giants don't trade Aaron Rowand and Travis Ishikawa to St. Louis for Albert Pujols.

Conventional analysis states that Belt either joins the team on Opening Day, and hits the hell out of the ball, or plays in the minors for two or three months and then is brought up (and hits the hell out of the ball). Which is all well and fine, but let's take a look at the dark underside of the Brandon Belt question and explore two unspeakable scenarios so frightening they make the upcoming release "Saw VIII: Now I'm Really Annoyed" look like a G-rated Disney feature from 1953.

Belt Scenario #1: It's early July 2011 and the Giants are 54-26, fourteen and a half games ahead of the Colorado Rockies. Team chemistry is sweet, everyone is contributing, and everything smells like linen-scented Lysol spray. Oh, and Brandon Belt is leading the Pacific Coast League in every offensive category known to mankind, compelling the Fresno Grizzlies front office to place an over-sized easy chair in front of Belt's bank of three adjoining lockers in the clubhouse. Sound familiar?

Do the Giants mess with baseball karma and bring their young phenom up?

Belt Scenario #2: It's early July 2011 and the Giants are 26-54 and in fourth place only one and a half games ahead of the last place Arizona SnakeBacks. Top prospect Brandon Belt is hitting .211 at Triple A Fresno, and has already made 23 errors at first base to break the all time PCL record, held since 1944 by Heinie LaHood, who tragically lost both arms in 1938 during an unsupervised tug of war contest hosted by the Boy Scouts. (The scrappy LaHood found a spot on the Giants' Triple A roster at first base due to the manpower shortage caused by World War II-- more on the amazing story of Heinie LaHood in a future blog.)

Would this scenario cause the the Giants' front office to still bring Brandon Belt up to the Bigs?

So, the message here is: don't count your Brandon Belts before they hatch. And while I'm at it, remember to measure twice and cut once, even if it's all gravy under the bridge.

Barry Zito and A Tale of Two Contracts

Written by Richard Dyer on .

The San Francisco Giants continue to seemingly glide through the off-season and Spring Training 2011 with few line-up and pitching issues. Will Pablo Sandoval continue to make laser-like contact at the plate and look positively athletic at third base? What will the Giants do with Mark DeRosa, who seems to be on a mission to make up for the time he lost last year, and whose name needs to be somewhere on the daily line-up card? The bullpen appears stocked with about three more qualified candidates than there are open slots.

Hell, the coffee even tastes better and now they're leaving two mints on the pillow each morning. 

barry_zito_san_francisco_giantsIt's times like these that allow front offices and sports writers to indulge in introspection, specifically in the areas of further fine-tuning and deciding to finally clean up that mess in the corner that isn't a big deal but can be so annoying. And so the drama-free atmosphere at camp Giants had a mini-explosion a few days ago when San Francisco Chronicle sportswriter Bruce Jenkins reported that the Giants' front office was "exasperated" with starter Barry Zito after his Spring debut wherein he pitched 1 2/3 innings giving up three hits, five walks, and two earned runs.

Word from an unnamed team source was that Zito was not in shape and the Giants are ready to "buy out his contract" before the season starts.

The club issued the usual denials the following day, but it's clear the Giants succeeded in sending out several messages regarding Zito. The first message was for Barry Zito: find the motivational fire you need to keep your starting job in the best rotation in the Majors. Zito was left off the post-season rosters throughout last year's playoffs and World Series and the Giants are making no apologies, nor are they going to allow Zito to sleepwalk through the Cactus League and into the 2011 season.

The second message? That one goes out to the Giants' top pitching prospects like Jose Casilla, Clayton Tanner and Jorge Bucardo: don't think the big club's pitching staff is set in stone for the year because you never know-- work hard and be ready.

In the otherwise happy clubhouse of the defending Series champions, Barry Zito's $126 million seven year contract is the large gorilla sitting on top of the rogue elephant over in the far corner. In another corner of the room is just a large gorilla: Aaron Rowand's five year $60 million contract. We haven't heard from Rowand's gorilla yet, but that could just be a matter of time: Rowand lost his center field job to Andres Torres in June last year, and since that is the only outfield position Rowand can play, his presence essentially takes up an extra roster spot.

The story here isn't Barry Zito; Zito contributed an average of 10 wins a year the past four years, and pitched 767.3 innings-- an average of 192 innings per season. That's a significant contribution to an average team (and the Giants were below average the first three years of Zito's contract). For a winning team, those innings and wins coming from a 4th or 5th starter are huge-- without Zito's 9 wins last season, the Giants don't make the playoffs.

aaronrowandThe real story is why the Giants still have Rowand on the roster. Despite his professionalism and sheer dedication to the team and to the game, Rowand has just not worked out. It is unrealistic to think the Giants would eat the $64.5 million remaining on Zito's contract when he is actually contributing, but trading Rowand and eating maybe $20+ million of his remaining contract would be a huge addition by subtraction.

Rowand's presence and lack of defensive flexibility means that players like Nate Schierholtz or Emmanual Burriss might not make this team, and the defensive skills and speed they bring are exactly what the Giants badly need.

Let's hope the Giants can get something done to move Rowand before opening day 2011.  

Notes
The Giants owe both players a total of $91.7 million over the next four years.
Barry Zito's contract breaks down this way:
2011 - $18.5m
2012 - $19m
2013 - $20m
2014 - $7m team buyout; a total of $64.5 million.
Aaron Rowand's contract looks like this:
2011 - $13.6m
2012 - $13.6m; a total of $27.2 million.                 

Giants Win Cactus Opener on a Squeak and a Prayer

Written by Richard Dyer on .

On Friday February 25th the San Francisco Giants topped the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-6 in the first Spring Training game of 2011. Many players threw pitches, many players had at-bats, and a great number of ballplayers ran around the bases. Those wily Giants reached back into their 2010 bag of tricks to barely hold on to win in the final inning, and with that we are off and running to the first game of the 2011 season-- Thursday March 31st against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

baseball-bat-ball-and-glove-isolated-on-a-field-of-grassSpring skirmishes may only be warm-ups for the upcoming campaign, but for many players these are not meaningless games. And if you look closely, special moments seem to pop up out of nowhere in these games that capture a team's past and its future. For me in the Cactus League opener, the Giants infield line up that finished off the game in the top of the last inning was particularly special: Brandon Belt at 1st base, Emmanuel Burriss at second, Ryan Rohlinger at 3rd base, and Brandon Crawford at short. Pretty cool.

This was a snaphot of four players at career crossroads, and a possible preview of at least part of the Giants' 2012 Opening Day infield.

Emmanuel Burriss has survived the last four years being moved back and forth between shortstop and second base, up and down between the minors and the big leagues, as the Giants front office awkwardly worked around their prospects while they signed a series of veteran free agent shortstops. Through injuries and uncertainty, Burriss has hung in there and performed well on the field and at the plate.

Brandon Belt is everyone's breakthrough headline and one of the most compelling 2011 prospect stories in baseball. If Belt makes the big team out of Spring Training, San Francisco's batting order may finally start to get the attention of the East Coast sports media.  
cactus20pic
Ryan Rohlinger hit a series of speed bumps the past several years and never got a lengthy look at third base. Now the 27 year old Rohlinger stands in the back of a suddenly very busy depth chart at third: Pablo Sandoval's anticipated comeback; veteran Mark DeRosa at the ready if Pablo stumbles; 23 year old Conor Gillaspie, picked second in the 2008 amateur draft behind Buster Posey, poised at AA Richmond; and 24 year old Chris Dominguez, who led Single A affiliate Augusta in RBI and total bases in 2010, also waiting in the wings.

Brandon Crawford, 24, could be the real surprise in this group. Crawford must be getting tired of the "great glove--questionable bat" label that now seems super-glued to his back, but he has shown some offensive spark over his minor league career. Ultimately, baseball teams built on pitching tend to seriously prosper with extraordinary infield defense-- and that's exactly what Crawford brings to the party.

For the first time in maybe 20 years, the San Francisco Giants organization has real offensive depth, and not just in the infield. It's a reflection of an organization that has made global errors, has had global successes, but is now on track to institutionally learn and grow.

Can You Name that Pitcher?

Written by Richard Dyer on .

Kansas City Royals star pitcher Joakim Soria said recently that he wants to dump his nickname, "The Mexicutioner', with its negative connection to all the violence occurring in his home country of Mexico.

The Royals front office immediately came up with a list of potential replacement nicknames for the righty closer (with staff comments), one of which will be chosen and used on an interim basis during Spring Training to see if works out.

Top 10 Replacement Nicknames for Joakim Soria
10. The Sultan of Throw (could be mistaken for local rug emporium owner)
9.The Excuseme-erator (would off-set negatives of his old nickname)
8. Hammerin’ Joakim
7. Charles Hustle (more formal version of nickname used by that other guy)
6. The Medium Sized Unit
5. Mr. Cub (may have to involve a potential trade)
4. The Iron Caballo
3. Lefty (nickname works better if Soria agrees to alter pitching stance, windup) 
2. Stan the Man (might have been previously used—staff is checking)
...and the number one replacement nickname for Joakim Soria…
1. The Soriator (possible identity confusion with popular robot vacuum cleaner)

Get Ready for a Giant Surprise in 2011

Written by Richard Dyer on .

Every Major League Baseball team has questions and issues going into the 2011 season. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates. For the St. Louis Cardinals it's all about Albert Pujols and his nonstop appointment with free agency (but don't worry-- Pujols will look great playing first base for the Los Angeles Angels in 2012 and the following nine years). For the New York Yankees it is the simple fact that they do not have enough quality starting pitching to keep up with the Boston Red Sox in 2011 (the Yanks are gambling that during the season they can bully one of the poverty line teams to get the starting pitching they need).

But no Major League team faces the haunting dilemma confronting the Los Angeles Dodgers: which side will be forced to take Tommy Lasorda in the upcoming owners' divorce settlement, Frank McCourt or Jamie McCourt? (attorneys for both sides cite Lasorda's enormous food bill, including hundreds of pounds of crab cannelloni and cheese stuffed Kobe sausages, which sources say costs the team several million dollars a month).

Since winning the  2010 World Series, the San Francisco Giants have their own questions, which can be summed up in the following familiar loop: Do you think you can repeat? Do you have enough offense? Why didn't the front office improve on last year's team? The answers should be obvious to the national baseball media, but maybe a thick fog of East Coast bias has clouded their 1970s aviator glasses.

sfgiants-paperThe Giants were two different teams in 2010. There was the team that looked up on July 4, 2010, and saw themselves with a 41-40 record, sitting in 4th place in the National League West. Then there's that other Giants team, the one that went 51-30 after July 4th and rode a firestorm of pitching and clutch hitting straight through the playoffs and World Series.

What happened? The Giants made all the significant changes they needed to make at mid-season last year. You know the players' names and what they accomplished. That July 2010 team is the one that kicked National League butt the second half and went on to absolutely dominate in the playoffs and World Series. And that Giants team will be one of the biggest surprises of the 2011 baseball season because they will be together as a unit for the entire season, not just two or three months, and they will score a large number of runs.

The sports networks, web media, and newspapers will refer to the 2011 Giants' offense as "one of the biggest stories of the year", and commentators will opine "sure they have the best pitching in the game, but who knew they would also hit so well and score so much?" Well, for starters, you knew because you read it here.

Bruce Bochy Rips a Motivational New One

Written by Richard Dyer on .

Several days ago, SF Chronicle sports writer Henry Schulman reported that San Francisco Giants Manager Bruce Bochy began Spring Training 2011 by talking with a large group of reporters assembled in his Scottsdale Stadium office. Bochy was discussing the upcoming season and his team’s chances of repeating as World Series Champions.

Bochy was asked about his pitching staff compared to the veteran stars in the Philadelphia Phillies' starting rotation, with so many years of success behind them. “Because of their track record,” Bochy said of the Phillies, “I think you would have to look at their staff as the best in baseball.”

brucebochyThe reporters in the room let out a collective gasp, then slowly turned to each other, smiled and nodded knowingly. Of course, this was just the crusty, grizzled veteran manager motivating his young starting staff, right? Very crafty of Bochy, throwing down a challenge to Mr. Lincecum, Mr. Cain, Mr. Sanchez, and Mr. Bumgarner--  the message being, don’t you young pups get too comfortable just because you won the 2010 World Series.

It was just like the old gravelly-throated, bear-like Bochy to find a way to get his troops all fired up for the 2011 season, right?

After a pause, Bochy continued. "Now that I think about it, those Philly hitters are probably the best in the history of the entire damn game…”. Bochy then took a deep breath and began to severely criticize the San Francisco restaurant scene. “I can go into any f--king deli in Cincinnati and get a better Reuben and slaw than I can in ‘Frisco, and I can stumble butt backwards into just about any restaurant in New York City and get a hell of a better meal. Now that's a big league town.”

Bochy snorted, raised his right arm in the air, and growled, “And every damn anybody who enjoys a recreational adult beverage knows Chicago has the best bars in the country. I mean real major league bars, not those frou-frou San Francisco chardonnay salons you read about in those magazines when you're waitin' for the dentist...”

Reporters covering his remarks started to shift back and forth uneasily, and began looking toward the door leading out of the clubhouse.

“And dammit, everyone knows the women in LA are the hottest little foxes on the planet. The women in San Francisco just aren’t in their league… I’m tellin’ you guys, I saw one tenderoni last year outside Dodger Stadium that made me want to… ”, a reporter nervously interrupted Bochy, who was now waving both arms, knocking over an oversized coffee mug with “World Series Champs” printed on it.

“Bruce, what about the Giants bullpen for the 2011 season, can they…”, the reporter hesitantly began, but Bochy quickly cut him off.

“And the mass transit system in this pissant town sucks green tomatoes, and I mean in the bad way. Look at that amazing trolley system they have in Atlanta. It's the best. Hell, the MUNI buses in San Fran are really just death traps….”.

By now a number of reporters had closed their notebooks and were quickly trying to get out of Bochy’s office. Several others turned and looked down, avoiding eye contact with the now unruly Giants Manager as they began to edge toward his office door.

“Hey, what the hell, where you guys goin’…  I wanna tell you about the so-call sex shops in this second-rate, ass-out town. They don’t have half the stuff you need, and I’m not talkin’ about those wet wipes and such, I mean the real big hardware…”.

Bochy started following the reporters, who were now rushing out of his office. “Hey, guys… I’m not done… let me tell you what a bad baseball town San Francisco is compared to all the others...  hey guys…  wait…”.

Larry Baer and the Thirty Percent Solution

Written by Richard Dyer on .

sf-fanfest-150x150The Giants recently held their annual "FanFest", the massive pre-season pep rally scheduled by most MLB teams a month prior to Spring Training. On the heels of a Championship season, the response to see Giants players and get back to the home field was overwhelming as some 40,000 fans jammed AT&T Park.

The event was broadcast on KNBR, the Giants' flagship radio station and I caught Giants President and Chief Operating Officer Larry Baer being interviewed during the festivities. In a moment that must have sent every gene in his body spinning backwards, Baer had to announce over the air that any fans still en route to FanFest, or who were not actually in line outside the ballpark for the two hour wait to get inside, should turn around and go home. The joint was filled to overflowing.

Understand, Larry Baer has spent much of his waking hours the past nineteen years urging all Giants fans, and any other mammals capable of physically purchasing game tickets, to come to AT&T Park and immediately begin consuming garlic fries and $12.00 cups of imported beer.

As Baer made a gurgled attempt to get the words "stay away" out of his throat, I could have sworn he began choking uncontrollably. Then, I imagined him bravely waving off medical help as he started over again. "Please do not come to the ballpark for FanFest, we are full, we have too many of you wonderful fans... I'm sorry but the response has been just overwhelming...". The effort was simply too much for the marketing-minded COO, who was led away to a "quiet area" where he was finally able to calm down by reviewing 2010 season game receipts and the cumulative revenue from local and national broadcasting rights.

FanFest sounded like it was a blast, but something else Larry Baer said during his radio interview provided insight into the analytical approach of the Giants' front office. When asked for the eleventy millionth time whether he thought the Giants could repeat last year's amazing success in  2011, Baer said he thought the team had a great chance to repeat even if serious adjustments had to be made during the season. Baer explained that a baseball season is unlike the season of any other professional sport because there is time to find out what you have and make adjustments.

As KNBR commentator Marty Lurie explained a number of times last year, the 162 game season allows for missteps, a couple of very nasty losing streaks, some bad luck, and player injuries. And a resilient team still has time to regroup and win.

larrybaer_smLarry Baer said that the first 50 games of the season allow the manager and front office to assess what they have; the next 50 games allow management to adjust and problem-solve; and the final 62 games are all about winning. A simple formula, but one that illustrates how far the Giants have come in the post-Bonds era. This 30% solution to managing a baseball season is the perspective of a professional organization that is confident, reacts without panic, and knows it has the ability to intelligently improvise.

And they will be tested. Symbolically, game #50 on May 27, 2011 will be against the Milwaukee Brewers, the National League's number one resurgent team. And game #100? Also against the improved Brewers. I like the challenging symbolism...     and I believe I have a solution. 

2011 National League West Pre-Season Preview

Written by Richard Dyer on .

nlwest-3-2011






Welcome to the 2011 National League West Pre-Season Preview, hosted by RJs Fro. Each day this week a different NL West team will be poked, probed, and otherwise analyzed by asking five generic questions, and five questions submitted by fellow NL West bloggers. So, let the probing begin...

Check out How the West Was Won from Bloguin's outstanding NL West blogmeisters:
San Francisco Giants Preview  The Giants Cove
San Diego Padres Preview
  RJs Fro
Colorado Rockies Preview  The Rockie Mountain Way
Los Angeles Dodgers Preview  TetreaultVision
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview  D'Backs Venom

sanfransiscogiantsballlogo





SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
1. 2010 record

92-70 1st NL West (and, as you may have heard, 2010 MLB World Champions).

2. Player additions
On July 4, 2010 the Giants were 41-40, wallowed in 4th place in the NL West. During the 2010 season, the Giants' roster underwent several tsunami-like changes, and Bruce Bochy was still recreating his line-up almost on a daily basis right through September. Everything came together in the post-season and will again in 2011.
Key team rebuilding moves in 2010:
> outfielder Pat Burrell was picked up in June;
> Andres Torres became the lead-off hitter and center fielder a month before mid-season; 
> relievers Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez were picked up at the trading deadline in July;
>catcher Buster Posey and starter Madison Bumgarner were brought up from the minors at mid-season.
>outfielder Cody Ross was added from waivers in August.

For the 2011 season, only one player has been added who was not on the team last year: shortstop Miguel Tejada, signed to a 1 year deal for $6.5 million.

3. Player Losses
Five players who were on the roster in September have left the Giants: infielders Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria, outfielders Jose Guillen and Eugenio Velez, and reliever Chris Ray.

4. Strengths going into 2011
The Giants will start 2011 with a set line-up that can produce runs, arguably the best starting staff in franchise history, and a bullpen with the second best pen ERA in the Majors last year.
There are eight significant differences between Opening Day 2010 and Opening Day 2011 that make the Giants a powerhouse:
1) Buster Posey is the starting catcher instead of Bengie Molina.
2) Cody Ross is the starting right fielder instead of John Bowker (and later, Nate Schierholtz and Jose Guillen).
3) Madison Bumgarner is the #5 starter instead of Cardinals cast-off Todd Wellemeyer.
4) Relievers Lopez and Ramirez start the year in the bullpen.
5) Pat Burrell will play some left field and add his power bat to the Giants' bench.
6) Andres Torres is the starting center fielder instead of Aaron Rowand.
7) Mark DeRosa will be an everyday starter in left field or third base (he was injured and out of the line-up for almost all of 2010). 
8) Miguel Tejada is the starting shortstop instead of Edgar Renteria.

5. Weaknesses going into 2011
Again this year the Giants' batting order does not have a 100+ RBI, 30+ home run, high OBP power hitter. They will have to score runs the way they did in 2010: hitting a lot of team extra base hits (476, 7th in the NL tied with Atlanta) and home runs (162, 6th in the NL). San Francisco was 9th in NL runs scored (697), and the revamped line-up needs to improve on that number in 2011 to succeed.

While the Giants made only 73 errors in the field (4th best in the Majors), their infield defense featured a distinct lack of range in 2010. But even Miguel Tejada's sub par range factor was better than the RFs put up by Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe. The infield defense takes another hit if Pablo Sandoval wins the third base job over DeRosa.

Currently, veteran pitcher Jeff Supan is a very shaky plan B if one of the five starters goes down. Top minor league prospect RHP Zack Wheeler appears to be a year away from a possible call-up, and up and coming hurlers RHP Jose Casilla and RHPJorge Bucardo are a couple of years away.

6. Is there any indication from the Giants' organization that Tim Lincecum's struggles in 2010 were a fluke, or has Lincecum become more hittable? (RJ's Fro)
Lincecum's 2010 problems occurred in August, when he went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA. The rest of the year he was 16-5 with a 2.94 ERA. As you might expect, there was intense speculation among fans, the media and (especially) sports talk radio during Lincecum's troubles. Everyone had a theory, and for a minute it seemed like Tim Lincecum's superman days were over. The Giants front office never publicly discussed what happened, but one local TV/radio sports commentator, F. P. Santangelo, apparently identified Lincecum's lack of ongoing conditioning as the cause for the stumble.

Lincecum reportedly went back to his normal workout and conditioning routines and he rebounded in the month of September, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 41.2 innings. Of course, the two-time Cy Young winner followed that up with an incredible post season: 4-1, 2.43 ERA, .92 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts in 37 innings.

7. Will the Giants' reality TV program deal with Showtime, in which cameras follow the team up close throughout the year, be a distraction? (RJ's Fro)
Maybe a little, but that's not the issue. As San Francisco Chronicle sports writer Bruce Jenkins pointed out, Giants President Larry Baer is on a mission to spread and sell the Giants brand on a national scale, the way the Yankees and Boston have done. The team sees the exponential revenue generated by other franchises who aggressively pursue the media, territorial expansion, and outside business opportunities and they want to play. Shockingly, it's all about the money. As far as the players, they'll have fun-- and who knows what individual commercial endorsement opportunities could come their way as a result of the project.

8. Offensively, do the Giants have enough to carry the team to the 2011 post-season? (The Rockie Mountain Way) 
See #4 above. The personnel changes the team made the second half of 2010 dramatically improved its extra base hitting and run scoring--  and all the elements of that improvement are in place for 2011. Buster Posey will be in the everyday line-up starting Opening Day, a year after winning NL Rookie of the Year.

9. 2010 was a bounceback year for Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell. Can they keep it up? And what about Pablo Sandoval? (D'Backs Venom)
Aubrey Huff is for real-- an extra base hitter who drives in runs and provides leadership in the clubhouse. Huff had 86, 85, and 108 RBI the last three years, and signing with the Giants re-energized his career and brought out his innate leadership skills. Huff agreed to a two year, $22 million contract three weeks after the World Series; he will play 155+ games at first base or left field in 2011.

Pat Burrell's best contribution in 2011 would be to come off the bench with his great plate discipline and power. The Giants need an everyday left fielder with better speed and range, and either Aubrey Huff or Mark DeRosa can provide that.

Pablo Sandoval is the biggest wild card in the organization. If he can continue to walk past the buffet table, and sticks to a conditioning program throughout the season, he could be a big contributor. If not, the Giants front office has publicly stated they will by-pass him quickly and Mark DeRosa will be the everyday third baseman.

10. Brandon Belt tore through the Giants' minor league system in his pro debut last year, hitting well at all levels. Is Belt ready to make a contribution at the Major League level in 2011? (D'Backs Venom)
Every local sports writer, TV commentator, sports talk radio guy, and Giants blogger has Belt as their number one can't-miss prospect-- and with good reason. Belt was recently ranked 26th on MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects. If Brandon Belt wins the first base job out of Spring Training this year, Aubrey Huff would move to left field and the Giants' line-up would start to get seriously lethal.

Blocking that field of dreams is the fact that the Giants are more conservative than most clubs when it comes to bringing young talent up to the big leagues. Brian Sabean's philosophy has been to season the hell out of young prospects in the minors, and bring them up slowly. After Buster Posey hit .315 in Spring Training 2010, he didn't make the team because the Giants needed to keep Posey in the minors through the month of June to make him ineligible to be Super Two arbitration eligible in 2013. But catcher Bengie Molina's hitting and leadership skills went dramatically south in May, and Sabean was forced to bring Posey up earlier than he planned (which will cost the team a bundle in 2013).

Brandon Belt will have to put on a tremendous performance in Spring Training to prove to the Giants' front office he is ready. Two other young prospects who could make an impact in the upcoming year are outfielder Thomas Neal, who hit .291 with 40 doubles in AA Richmond last year, and slick fielding shortstop Brandon Crawford.

Giants' Projected 2011 Starting Line-up
1. Andres Torres CF
2. Freddy Sanchez 2B
3. Buster Posey C
4. Aubrey Huff 1B
5. Miguel Tejada SS
6. Mark DeRosa LF
7. Pablo Sandoval 3B
8. Cody Ross RF
SP: RHP Tim Lincecum, RHP Matt Cain, LHP Jonathan  Sanchez, LHP Barry Zito, LHP Madison Bumgarner

Closer: RHP Brian Wilson

Projected final 2011 NL West standings
1. San Francisco Giants - 96 wins
2. Colorado Rockies - 91 wins
3. San Diego Padres - 86 wins
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - 78 wins
5. Arizona Diamondbacks - 67 wins